Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

Contribution of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation to the Recent Abrupt Decrease in Tropical Cyclone Genesis Frequency over the Western North Pacific since 1998

Jiuwei Zhao Pacific Typhoon Research Center, Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China, and International Pacific Research Center, and Department of Atmospheric Sciences, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa, Honolulu, Hawaii

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Ruifen Zhan Shanghai Typhoon Institute, China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai, China

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Yuqing Wang Pacific Typhoon Research Center, Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China, and International Pacific Research Center, and Department of Atmospheric Sciences, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa, Honolulu, Hawaii

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Haiming Xu Pacific Typhoon Research Center, Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China

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Print Publication:
15 Oct 2018
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0202.1
Page(s):
8211–8224
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Abstract

Previous studies have documented an abrupt decrease of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency over the western North Pacific (WNP) since 1998. In this study, results from an objective clustering analysis demonstrated that this abrupt decrease is primarily related to the decrease in a cluster of TCs (C1) that mostly formed over the southeastern WNP, south of 15°N and east of the Philippines, and possessed long tracks. Further statistical analyses based on both best track TC data and global reanalysis data during 1980–2015 revealed that the genesis of C1 TCs was significantly modulated by the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO), whose recent negative phase since 1998 corresponded to a La Niña–like sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) pattern, which strengthened the Walker circulation in the tropical Pacific and weakened the WNP monsoon trough, suppressing genesis of C1 TCs in the southeastern WNP and predominantly contributing to the decrease in TC genesis frequency over the entire WNP basin. These findings were further confirmed by results from similar analyses based on longer observational datasets and also the outputs from a 500-yr preindustrial general circulation model experiment using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Coupled Model, version 3. Additional analysis indicates that the decrease in C1 TC genesis frequency in the recent period was dominated during August–October, with the largest decrease in October.

© 2018 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Dr. Ruifen Zhan, zhanrf@typhoon.org.cn

Abstract

Previous studies have documented an abrupt decrease of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency over the western North Pacific (WNP) since 1998. In this study, results from an objective clustering analysis demonstrated that this abrupt decrease is primarily related to the decrease in a cluster of TCs (C1) that mostly formed over the southeastern WNP, south of 15°N and east of the Philippines, and possessed long tracks. Further statistical analyses based on both best track TC data and global reanalysis data during 1980–2015 revealed that the genesis of C1 TCs was significantly modulated by the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO), whose recent negative phase since 1998 corresponded to a La Niña–like sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) pattern, which strengthened the Walker circulation in the tropical Pacific and weakened the WNP monsoon trough, suppressing genesis of C1 TCs in the southeastern WNP and predominantly contributing to the decrease in TC genesis frequency over the entire WNP basin. These findings were further confirmed by results from similar analyses based on longer observational datasets and also the outputs from a 500-yr preindustrial general circulation model experiment using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Coupled Model, version 3. Additional analysis indicates that the decrease in C1 TC genesis frequency in the recent period was dominated during August–October, with the largest decrease in October.

© 2018 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Dr. Ruifen Zhan, zhanrf@typhoon.org.cn
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