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Research Article

Future Changes in Hail Occurrence in the United States Determined through Convection-Permitting Dynamical Downscaling

Robert J. Trapp Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign, Urbana, Illinois

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Kimberly A. Hoogewind Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana

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Sonia Lasher-Trapp Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign, Urbana, Illinois

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Print Publication:
01 Sep 2019
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0740.1
Page(s):
5493–5509
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Abstract

The effect of anthropogenically enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations on the frequency and intensity of hail depends on a range of physical processes and scales. These include the environmental support of the hail-generating convective storms and the frequency of their initiation, the storm volume over which hail growth is promoted, and the depth of the lower atmosphere conducive to melting. Here, we use high-resolution (convection permitting) dynamical downscaling to simultaneously account for these effects. We find broad geographical areas of increases in the frequency of large hail (≳35-mm diameter) over the United States, during all four seasons. Increases in very large hail (≳50-mm diameter) are mostly confined to the central United States, during boreal spring and summer. And, although increases in moderate hail (≳20-mm diameter) are also found throughout the year, decreases occur over much of the eastern United States in summer. Such decreases result from a projected decrease in convective-storm frequency. Overall, these results suggest that the annual U.S. hail season may begin earlier in the year, be lengthened by more than a week, and exhibit more interannual variability in the future.

Current affiliation: Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, University of Oklahoma, and NOAA/NWS/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, Oklahoma.

Supplemental information related to this paper is available at the Journals Online website: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0740.s1.

© 2019 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Robert J. Trapp, jtrapp@illinois.edu

Abstract

The effect of anthropogenically enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations on the frequency and intensity of hail depends on a range of physical processes and scales. These include the environmental support of the hail-generating convective storms and the frequency of their initiation, the storm volume over which hail growth is promoted, and the depth of the lower atmosphere conducive to melting. Here, we use high-resolution (convection permitting) dynamical downscaling to simultaneously account for these effects. We find broad geographical areas of increases in the frequency of large hail (≳35-mm diameter) over the United States, during all four seasons. Increases in very large hail (≳50-mm diameter) are mostly confined to the central United States, during boreal spring and summer. And, although increases in moderate hail (≳20-mm diameter) are also found throughout the year, decreases occur over much of the eastern United States in summer. Such decreases result from a projected decrease in convective-storm frequency. Overall, these results suggest that the annual U.S. hail season may begin earlier in the year, be lengthened by more than a week, and exhibit more interannual variability in the future.

Current affiliation: Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, University of Oklahoma, and NOAA/NWS/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, Oklahoma.

Supplemental information related to this paper is available at the Journals Online website: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0740.s1.

© 2019 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Robert J. Trapp, jtrapp@illinois.edu

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