• Barnes, E. A., and L. M. Polvani, 2015: CMIP5 projections of Arctic amplification, of the North American/North Atlantic circulation, and of their relationship. J. Climate, 28, 52545271, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00589.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Barnes, E. A., and J. A. Screen, 2015: The impact of Arctic warming on the midlatitude jet-stream: Can it? Has it? Will it? Wiley Interdiscip. Rev.: Climate Change, 6, 277286, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.337.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Blackport, R., and J. A. Screen, 2020: Insignificant effect of Arctic amplification on the amplitude of midlatitude atmospheric waves. Sci. Adv., 6, eaay2880, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aay2880.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Chen, J., A. Dai, and Y. Zhang, 2019: Projected changes in daily variability and seasonal cycle of near-surface air temperature over the globe during the twenty-first century. J. Climate, 32, 85378561, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0438.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Cohen, J., and Coauthors, 2014: Recent Arctic amplification and extreme mid-latitude weather. Nat. Geosci., 7, 627637, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2234.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Cohen, J., and Coauthors, 2020: Divergent consensuses on Arctic amplification influence on midlatitude severe winter weather. Nat. Climate Change, 10, 2029, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0662-y.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Collins, M., and Coauthors, 2013: Long-term climate change: Projections, commitments and irreversibility. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, T. F. Stocker et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 1029–1136.

  • Collow, T. W., W. Wang, and A. Kumar, 2019: Reduction in northern midlatitude 2-m temperature variability due to Arctic sea ice loss. J. Climate, 32, 50215035, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0692.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dai, A., 2016: Future warming patterns linked to today’s climate variability. Sci. Rep., 6, 19110, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep19110.

  • Dai, A., and M. Song, 2020: Little influence of Arctic amplification on midlatitude climate. Nat. Climate Change, 10, 231237, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0694-3.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dai, A., D. Luo, M. Song, and J. Liu, 2019: Arctic amplification is caused by sea-ice loss under increasing CO2. Nat. Commun., 10, 121, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-07954-9.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Deng, J., A. Dai, and D. Chyi, 2020: Northern Hemisphere winter air temperature patterns and their associated atmospheric and ocean conditions. J. Climate, 33, 61656186, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0533.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Deser, C., R. A. Tomas, and L. Sun, 2015: The role of ocean–atmosphere coupling in the zonal-mean atmospheric response to Arctic sea ice loss. J. Climate, 28, 21682186, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00325.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Francis, J. A., 2017: Why are Arctic linkages to extreme weather still up in the air? Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 98, 25512557, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0006.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Francis, J. A., and S. J. Vavrus, 2012: Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L06801, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051000.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Francis, J. A., and S. J. Vavrus, 2015: Evidence for a wavier jet stream in response to rapid Arctic warming. Environ. Res. Lett., 10, 014005, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/1/014005.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Francis, J. A., S. J. Vavrus, and J. Cohen, 2017: Amplified Arctic warming and mid-latitude weather: New perspectives on emerging connections. Wiley Interdiscip. Rev.: Climate Change, 8, e474, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.474.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Garfinkel, C. I., and N. Harnik, 2017: The non-Gaussianity and spatial asymmetry of temperature extremes relative to the storm track: The role of horizontal advection. J. Climate, 30, 445464, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0806.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hansen, J., M. Sato, and R. Ruedy, 2012: Perception of climate change. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 109, E2415E2423, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1205276109.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hersbach, H., and Coauthors, 2020: The ERA5 global reanalysis. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 19992049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803.

  • Holland, M. M., and C. M. Bitz, 2003: Polar amplification of climate change in coupled models. Climate Dyn., 21, 221232, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-003-0332-6.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Holmes, C. R., T. Woollings, E. Hawkins, and H. de Vries, 2016: Robust future changes in temperature variability under greenhouse gas forcing and the relationship with thermal advection. J. Climate, 29, 22212236, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00735.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Huntingford, C., P. D. Jones, V. N. Livina, T. M. Lenton, and P. M. Cox, 2013: No increase in global temperature variability despite changing regional patterns. Nature, 500, 327330, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12310.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hurrell, J. W., and Coauthors, 2013: The Community Earth System Model: A framework for collaborative research. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94, 13391360, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00121.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Jahn, A., and Coauthors, 2012: Late-twentieth-century simulation of Arctic sea ice and ocean properties in the CCSM4. J. Climate, 25, 14311452, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00201.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Koenigk, T., and Coauthors, 2019: Impact of Arctic sea ice variations on winter temperature anomalies in northern hemispheric land areas. Climate Dyn., 52, 31113137, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4305-1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Luo, B., D. Luo, A. Dai, I. Simmonds, and L. Wu, 2020:Combined influences on North American winter air temperature variability from North Pacific blocking and the North Atlantic Oscillation: Subseasonal and interannual time scales. J. Climate, 33, 71017123, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0327.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Luo, D., Y. Yao, A. Dai, I. Simmonds, and L. Zhong, 2017: Increased quasi stationarity and persistence of winter Ural blocking and Eurasian extreme cold events in response to Arctic warming. Part II: A theoretical explanation. J. Climate, 30, 35693587, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0262.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Luo, D., X. Chen, A. Dai, and I. Simmonds, 2018: Changes in atmospheric blocking circulations linked with winter Arctic sea-ice loss: A new perspective. J. Climate, 31, 76617678, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0040.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Murray, R. J., and I. Simmonds, 1995: Responses of climate and cyclones to reductions in Arctic winter sea ice. J. Geophys. Res., 100, 47914806, https://doi.org/10.1029/94JC02206.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Raghavendra, A., A. Dai, S. M. Milrad, and S. R. Cloutier-Bisbee, 2019: Floridian heatwaves and extreme precipitation: Future climate projections. Climate Dyn., 52, 495508, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4148-9.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Rahmstorf, S., and D. Coumou, 2011: Increase of extreme events in a warming world. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 108, 17 90517 909, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1101766108.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Schneider, T., T. Bischoff, and H. Płotka, 2015: Physics of changes in synoptic midlatitude temperature variability. J. Climate, 28, 23122331, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00632.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Screen, J. A., 2014: Arctic amplification decreases temperature variance in northern mid- to high-latitudes. Nat. Climate Change, 4, 577582, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2268.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Screen, J. A., and I. Simmonds, 2010: The central role of diminishing sea ice in recent Arctic temperature amplification. Nature, 464, 13341337, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature09051.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Screen, J. A., C. Deser, and L. Sun, 2015: Reduced risk of North American cold extremes due to continued Arctic sea ice loss. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96, 14891503, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00185.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Screen, J. A., and Coauthors, 2018: Consistency and discrepancy in the atmospheric response to Arctic sea-ice loss across climate models. Nat. Geosci., 11, 155163, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0059-y.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Serreze, M. C., and R. G. Barry, 2011: Processes and impacts of Arctic amplification: A research synthesis. Global Planet. Change, 77, 8596, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2011.03.004.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Serreze, M. C., A. P. Barrett, J. C. Stroeve, D. M. Kindig, and M. M. Holland, 2009: The emergence of surface-based Arctic amplification. Cryosphere, 3, 1119, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-3-11-2009.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Stouffer, R. J., and R. T. Wetherald, 2007: Changes of variability in response to increasing greenhouse gases. Part I: Temperature. J. Climate, 20, 54555467, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1384.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Sun, L., C. Deser, R. A. Tomas, and M. Alexander, 2020: Global coupled climate response to polar sea ice loss: Evaluating the effectiveness of different ice-constraining approaches. Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2019GL085788, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085788.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Tamarin-Brodsky, T., K. Hodges, B. J. Hoskins, and T. G. Shepherd, 2019: A dynamical perspective on atmospheric temperature variability and its response to climate change. J. Climate, 32, 17071724, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0462.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Tamarin-Brodsky, T., K. Hodges, B. J. Hoskins, and T. G. Shepherd, 2020: Changes in Northern Hemisphere temperature variability shaped by regional warming patterns. Nat. Geosci., 13, 414421, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-020-0576-3.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Westby, R. M., Y. Y. Lee, and R. X. Black, 2013: Anomalous temperature regimes during the cool season: Long-term trends, low-frequency mode modulation, and representation in CMIP5 simulations. J. Climate, 26, 90619076, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00003.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Yao, Y., D. Luo, A. Dai, and I. Simmonds, 2017: Increased quasi-stationarity and persistence of Ural blocking and Eurasian extreme cold events in response to Arctic warming. Part I: Insights from observational analyses. J. Climate, 30, 35493568, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0261.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ylhäisi, J. S., and J. Räisänen, 2014: Twenty-first century changes in daily temperature variability in CMIP3 climate models. Int. J. Climatol., 34, 14141428, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3773.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 460 460 217
Full Text Views 92 92 34
PDF Downloads 111 111 36

Arctic Amplification Weakens the Variability of Daily Temperatures over Northern Middle-High Latitudes

View More View Less
  • 1 Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, New York
  • 2 Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Change (ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China
© Get Permissions
Restricted access

Abstract

Arctic amplification (AA) reduces meridional temperature gradients (dT/dy) over the northern mid-high latitudes, which may weaken westerly winds. It is suggested that this may lead to wavier and more extreme weather in the midlatitudes. However, temperature variability is shown to decrease over the northern mid-high latitudes under increasing greenhouse gases due to reduced dT/dy. Here, through analyses of coupled model simulations and ERA5 reanalysis, it is shown that consistent with previous studies, cold-season surface and lower-mid troposphere temperature (T) variability decreases over northern mid-high latitudes even in simulations with suppressed AA and sea ice loss under increasing CO2; however, AA and sea ice loss further reduce the T variability greatly, leading to a narrower probability distribution and weaker cold or warm extreme events relative to future mean climate. Increased CO2 strengthens meridional wind (υ) with a wavenumber-4 pattern but weakens meridional thermal advection [−υ(dT/dy)] over most northern mid-high latitudes, and AA weakens the climatological υ and −υ(dT/dy). The weakened thermal advection and its decreased variance are the primary causes of the T variability decrease, which is enlarged by a positive feedback between the variability of T and −υ(dT/dy). AA not only reduces dT/dy, but also its variance, which further decreases T variability through −υ(dT/dy). While the mean snow and ice cover decreases, its variability increases over many northern latitudes, and these changes do not weaken the T variability. Thus, AA’s influence on midlatitude temperature variability comes mainly from its impact on thermal advection, rather than on winds as previously thought.

© 2021 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Aiguo Dai, adai@albany.edu

Abstract

Arctic amplification (AA) reduces meridional temperature gradients (dT/dy) over the northern mid-high latitudes, which may weaken westerly winds. It is suggested that this may lead to wavier and more extreme weather in the midlatitudes. However, temperature variability is shown to decrease over the northern mid-high latitudes under increasing greenhouse gases due to reduced dT/dy. Here, through analyses of coupled model simulations and ERA5 reanalysis, it is shown that consistent with previous studies, cold-season surface and lower-mid troposphere temperature (T) variability decreases over northern mid-high latitudes even in simulations with suppressed AA and sea ice loss under increasing CO2; however, AA and sea ice loss further reduce the T variability greatly, leading to a narrower probability distribution and weaker cold or warm extreme events relative to future mean climate. Increased CO2 strengthens meridional wind (υ) with a wavenumber-4 pattern but weakens meridional thermal advection [−υ(dT/dy)] over most northern mid-high latitudes, and AA weakens the climatological υ and −υ(dT/dy). The weakened thermal advection and its decreased variance are the primary causes of the T variability decrease, which is enlarged by a positive feedback between the variability of T and −υ(dT/dy). AA not only reduces dT/dy, but also its variance, which further decreases T variability through −υ(dT/dy). While the mean snow and ice cover decreases, its variability increases over many northern latitudes, and these changes do not weaken the T variability. Thus, AA’s influence on midlatitude temperature variability comes mainly from its impact on thermal advection, rather than on winds as previously thought.

© 2021 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Aiguo Dai, adai@albany.edu
Save