• Abe, M., H. Shiogama, T. Nozawa, and S. Emori, 2011: Estimation of future surface temperature changes constrained using the future–present correlated modes in inter-model variability of CMIP3 multimodel simulations. J. Geophys. Res., 116, D18104, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD015111.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bony, S., G. Bellon, D. Klocke, S. Sherwood, S. Fermepin, and S. Denvil, 2013: Robust direct effect of carbon dioxide on tropical circulation and regional precipitation. Nat. Geosci., 6, 447451, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1799.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Chadwick, R., 2016: Which aspects of CO2 forcing and SST warming cause most uncertainty in projections of tropical rainfall change over land and ocean? J. Climate, 29, 24932509, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0777.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Chadwick, R., I. Boutle, and G. Martin, 2013: Spatial patterns of precipitation change in CMIP5: Why the rich do not get richer in the tropics. J. Climate, 26, 38033822, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00543.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Chen, C., W. Liu, and G. Wang, 2019: Understanding the uncertainty in the 21st century dynamic sea level projections: The role of the AMOC. Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 210217, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL080676.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Cheng, W., J. C. H. Chiang, and D. Zhang, 2013: Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in CMIP5 models: RCP and historical simulations. J. Climate, 26, 71877197, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00496.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Chou, C., and J. D. Neelin, 2004: Mechanisms of global warming impacts on regional tropical precipitation. J. Climate, 17, 26882701, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<2688:MOGWIO>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Chou, C., J. D. Neelin, C. A. Chen, and J. Y. Tu, 2009: Evaluating the “rich-get-richer” mechanism in tropical precipitation change under global warming. J. Climate, 22, 19822005, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2471.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Christensen, J. H., and Coauthors, 2013: Climate phenomena and their relevance for future regional climate change. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, T. F. Stocker et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 12171308, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.028.

    • Crossref
    • Export Citation
  • Clark, S. K., Y. Ming, I. M. Held, and P. Phillipps, 2018: The role of the water vapor feedback in the ITCZ response to hemispherically asymmetric forcings. J. Climate, 31, 36593678, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0723.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dai, A., J. C. Fyfe, S.-P. Xie, and X. Dai, 2015: Decadal modulation of global surface temperature by internal climate variability. Nat. Climate Change, 5, 555559, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2605.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Deser, C., A. Phillips, V. Bourdette, and H. Y. Teng, 2012: Uncertainty in climate change projections: The role of internal variability. Climate Dyn., 38, 527546, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0977-x.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Deser, C., and Coauthors, 2020: Insights from Earth system model initial-condition large ensembles and future prospects. Nat. Climate Change, 10, 277286, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0731-2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Emori, S., and S. J. Brown, 2005: Dynamic and thermodynamic changes in mean and extreme precipitation under changed climate. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L17706, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL023272.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • England, M. R., L. M. Polvani, L. Sun, and C. Deser, 2020: Tropical climate responses to projected Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice loss. Nat. Geosci., 13, 275281, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-020-0546-9.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Geng, Y.-F., S.-P. Xie, X.-T. Zheng, and C.-Y. Wang, 2020: Seasonal dependency of tropical precipitation change under global warming. J. Climate, 33, 78977908, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0032.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Green, B., and J. Marshall, 2017: Coupling of trade winds with ocean circulation damps ITCZ shifts. J. Climate, 30, 43954411, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0818.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Green, B., J. Marshall, and J.-M. Campin, 2019: The ‘sticky’ ITCZ: Ocean moderated ITCZ shifts. Climate Dyn., 53, 119, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04623-5.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gregory, J. M., and Coauthors, 2005: A model intercomparison of changes in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L12703, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL023209.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Grose, M. R., J. Bhend, S. Narsey, A. Sen Gupta, and J. R. Brown, 2014: Can we constrain CMIP5 rainfall projections in the tropical Pacific based on surface warming patterns? J. Climate, 27, 91239138, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00190.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hawcroft, M., J. M. Haywood, M. Collins, A. Jones, A. C. Jones, and G. Stephens, 2017: Southern Ocean albedo, inter-hemispheric energy transports and the double ITCZ: Global impacts of biases in a coupled model. Climate Dyn., 48, 22792295, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3205-5.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hawkins, E., and R. Sutton, 2009: The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 90, 10951108, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009BAMS2607.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Held, I. M., and B. J. Soden, 2006: Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming. J. Climate, 19, 56865699, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3990.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hewitt, H. T., and Coauthors, 2020: Resolving and parameterising the ocean mesoscale in Earth system models. Curr. Climate Change Rep., 6, 137152, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-020-00164-w.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hu, S., S.-P. Xie, and W. Liu, 2020: Global pattern formation of net ocean surface heat flux response to greenhouse warming. J. Climate, 33, 75037522, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0642.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hu, S., S.-P. Xie, and S. M. Kang, 2022: Global warming pattern formation: The role of ocean heat uptake. J. Climate, 35, 18851899, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0317.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Huang, P., S.-P. Xie, K. M. Hu, G. Huang, and R. H. Huang, 2013: Patterns of the seasonal response of tropical rainfall to global warming. Nat. Geosci., 6, 357361, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1792.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hwang, Y.-T., and D. M. W. Frierson, 2013: Link between the double-intertropical convergence zone problem and cloud biases over the Southern Ocean. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 110, 49354940, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1213302110.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hwang, Y.-T., S.-P. Xie, C. Deser, and S. M. Kang, 2017: Connecting tropical climate change with Southern Ocean heat uptake. Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 94499457, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074972.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hwang, Y.-T., H.-Y. Tseng, K.-C. Li, S. M. Kang, Y.-J. Chen, and J. C. H. Chiang, 2021: Relative roles of energy and momentum fluxes in the tropical response to extratropical thermal forcing. J. Climate, 34, 37713786, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0151.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kajtar, J. B., A. Santoso, M. Collins, A. S. Taschetto, M. H. England, and L. M. Frankcombe, 2021: CMIP5 intermodel relationships in the baseline Southern Ocean climate system and with future projections. Earth’s Future, 9, e2020EF001873, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001873.

    • Crossref
    • Export Citation
  • Kang, S. M., 2020: Extratropical influence on the tropical rainfall distribution. Curr. Climate Change Rep., 6, 2436, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-020-00154-y.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kang, S. M., I. M. Held, D. M. W. Frierson, and M. Zhao, 2008: The response of the ITCZ to extratropical thermal forcing: Idealized slab-ocean experiments with a GCM. J. Climate, 21, 35213532, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI2146.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kang, S. M., Y. Shin, and S.-P. Xie, 2018: Extratropical forcing and tropical rainfall distribution: Energetics framework and ocean Ekman advection. npj Climate Atmos. Sci., 1, 20172, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-017-0004-6.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kang, S. M., and Coauthors, 2019: Extratropical–Tropical Interaction Model Intercomparison Project (ETIN-MIP): Protocol and initial results. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 100, 25892606, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0301.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kang, S. M., S.-P. Xie, Y. Shin, H. Kim, Y.-T. Hwang, M. F. Stuecker, B. Xiang, and M. Hawcroft, 2020: Walker circulation response to extratropical radiative forcing. Sci. Adv., 6, eabd3021, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abd3021.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kang, S. M., S.-P. Xie, C. Deser, and B. Xiang, 2021: Zonal mean and shift modes of historical climate response to evolving aerosol distribution. Sci. Bull., 66, 24052411, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2021.07.013.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kay, J. E., and Coauthors, 2015: The Community Earth System Model (CESM) large ensemble project: A community resource for studying climate change in the presence of internal climate variability. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96, 13331349, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00255.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kay, J. E., C. Wall, V. Yettella, B. Medeiros, C. Hannay, P. Caldwell, and C. Bitz, 2016: Global climate impacts of fixing the Southern Ocean shortwave radiation bias in the Community Earth System Model (CESM). J. Climate, 29, 46174636, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0358.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kent, C., R. Chadwick, and D. P. Rowell, 2015: Understanding uncertainties in future projections of seasonal tropical precipitation. J. Climate, 28, 43904413, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00613.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Li, G., and S.-P. Xie, 2014: Tropical biases in CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: The excessive equatorial Pacific cold tongue and double ITCZ problems. J. Climate, 27, 17651780, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00337.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Li, G., S.-P. Xie, and Y. Du, 2016a: A robust but spurious pattern of climate change in model projections over the tropical Indian Ocean. J. Climate, 29, 55895608, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0565.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Li, G., S.-P. Xie, Y. Du, and Y. Luo, 2016b: Effects of excessive equatorial cold tongue bias on the projections of tropical Pacific climate change. Part I: The warming pattern in CMIP5 multi-model ensemble. Climate Dyn., 47, 38173831, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3043-5.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Liu, W., A. V. Fedorov, S. P. Xie, and S. Hu, 2020: Climate impacts of a weakened Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a warming climate. Sci. Adv., 6, eaaz4876, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aaz4876.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Long, S.-M., and S.-P. Xie, 2015: Intermodel variations in projected precipitation change over the North Atlantic: Sea surface temperature effect. Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 41584165, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL063852.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Long, S.-M., S.-P. Xie, and W. Liu, 2016: Uncertainty in tropical rainfall projections: Atmospheric circulation effect and the ocean coupling. J. Climate, 29, 26712687, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0601.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ma, J., and S.-P. Xie, 2013: Regional patterns of sea surface temperature change: A source of uncertainty in future projections of precipitation and atmospheric circulation. J. Climate, 26, 24822501, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00283.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Marshall, J., J. Scott, K. Armour, J. Campin, M. Kelley, and A. Romanou, 2015: The ocean’s role in the transient response of climate to abrupt greenhouse gas forcing. Climate Dyn., 44, 22872299, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2308-0.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Menary, M. B., L. Hermanson, and N. J. Dunstone, 2016: The impact of Labrador Sea temperature and salinity variability on density and the subpolar AMOC in a decadal prediction system. Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 12 21712 227, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL070906.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Menary, M. B., L. C. Jackson, and M. S. Lozier, 2020: Reconciling the relationship between the AMOC and Labrador Sea in OSNAP observations and climate models. Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2020GL089793, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL089793.

    • Crossref
    • Export Citation
  • Schneider, T., 2017: Feedback of atmosphere–ocean coupling on shifts of the intertropical convergence zone. Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 11 644653, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL075817.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Seager, R., N. Naik, and G. A. Vecchi, 2010: Thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms for large-scale changes in the hydrological cycle in response to global warming. J. Climate, 23, 46514668, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3655.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Shi, J.-R., S.-P. Xie, and L. D. Talley, 2018: Evolving relative importance of the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic in anthropogenic ocean heat uptake. J. Climate, 31, 74597479, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0170.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Shiogama, H., S. Emori, N. Hanasaki, M. Abe, Y. Masutomi, K. Takahashi, and T. Nozawa, 2011: Observational constraints indicate risk of drying in the Amazon basin. Nat. Commun., 2, 253, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms1252.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Soden, B. J., and I. M. Held, 2006: An assessment of climate feedbacks in coupled ocean–atmosphere models. J. Climate, 19, 33543360, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3799.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Song, X., and G. J. Zhang, 2018: The roles of convection parameterization in the formation of double ITCZ syndrome in the NCAR CESM: I. Atmospheric processes. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 10, 842866, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017MS001191.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Timmermann, A., and Coauthors, 2007: The influence of a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation on ENSO. J. Climate, 20, 48994919, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4283.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Tomas, R. A., C. Deser, and L. Sun, 2016: The role of ocean heat transport in the global climate response to projected Arctic sea ice loss. J. Climate, 29, 68416859, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0651.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wang, C., L. Zhang, S. K. Lee, L. Wu, and C. R. Mechoso, 2014: A global perspective on CMIP5 climate model biases. Nat. Climate Change, 4, 201205, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2118.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Weaver, A. J., and Coauthors, 2012: Stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation: A model intercomparison. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L20709, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053763.

  • Weijer, W., W. Cheng, O. A. Garuba, A. Hu, and B. T. Nadiga, 2020: CMIP6 models predict significant 21st century decline of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2019GL086075, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086075.

  • Weller, E., C. Jakob, and M. J. Reeder, 2019: Understanding the dynamic contribution to future changes in tropical precipitation from low-level convergence lines. Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 21962203, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL080813.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Xiang, B., M. Zhao, Y. Ming, W. Yu, and S. Kang, 2018: Contrasting impacts of radiative forcing in the Southern Ocean versus southern tropics on ITCZ position and energy transport in one GFDL climate model. J. Climate, 31, 56095628, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0566.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Xie, S.-P., 2020: Ocean warming pattern effect on global and regional climate change. AGU Adv., 1, e2019AV000130, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019AV000130.

  • Xie, S.-P., C. Deser, G. A. Vecchi, J. Ma, H. Y. Teng, and A. T. Wittenberg, 2010: Global warming pattern formation: Sea surface temperature and rainfall. J. Climate, 23, 966986, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3329.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Xie, S.-P., and Coauthors, 2015: Towards predictive understanding of regional climate change. Nat. Climate Change, 5, 921930, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2689.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ying, J., P. Huang, T. Lian, and H. Tan, 2019: Understanding the effect of an excessive cold tongue bias on projecting the tropical Pacific SST warming pattern in CMIP5 models. Climate Dyn., 52, 18051818, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4219-y.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zhang, L., T. L. Delworth, W. Cooke, and X. Yang, 2019: Natural variability of Southern Ocean convection as a driver of observed climate trends. Nat. Climate Change, 9, 5965, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0350-3.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zhang, R., and T. Delworth, 2005: Simulated tropical response to a substantial weakening of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. J. Climate, 18, 18531860, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3460.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zhou, Z.-Q., and S.-P. Xie, 2015: Effects of climatological model biases on the projection of tropical climate change. J. Climate, 28, 99099917, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0243.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 119 119 119
Full Text Views 39 39 39
PDF Downloads 51 51 51

CMIP6 Intermodel Spread in Interhemispheric Asymmetry of Tropical Climate Response to Greenhouse Warming: Extratropical Ocean Effects

View More View Less
  • 1 aPhysical Oceanography Laboratory, Institute for Advanced Ocean Studies, Ocean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao, China
  • | 2 bScripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, California
  • | 3 cCollege of Oceanography, Key Laboratory of Marine Hazards Forecasting, Ministry of Natural Resources, Key Laboratory of Ministry of Education for Coastal Disaster and Protection, Hohai University, Nanjing, China
  • | 4 dSchool of Urban and Environmental Engineering, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology, Ulsan, Republic of Korea
  • | 5 eFrontier Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Ocean University of China, and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao, China
Restricted access

Abstract

Tropical climate response to greenhouse warming is to first order symmetric about the equator but climate models disagree on the degree of latitudinal asymmetry of the tropical change. Intermodel spread in equatorial asymmetry of tropical climate response is investigated by using 37 models from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). In the simple simulation with CO2 increase at 1% per year but without aerosol forcing, this study finds that intermodel spread in tropical asymmetry is tied to that in the extratropical surface heat flux change related to the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and Southern Ocean sea ice concentration (SIC). AMOC or Southern Ocean SIC change alters net energy flux at the top of the atmosphere and sea surface in one hemisphere and may induce interhemispheric atmospheric energy transport. The negative feedback of the shallow meridional overturning circulation in the tropics and the positive low cloud feedback in the subtropics are also identified. Our results suggest that reducing the intermodel spread in extratropical change can improve the reliability of tropical climate projections.

© 2022 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Shang-Ping Xie, sxie@ucsd.edu

Abstract

Tropical climate response to greenhouse warming is to first order symmetric about the equator but climate models disagree on the degree of latitudinal asymmetry of the tropical change. Intermodel spread in equatorial asymmetry of tropical climate response is investigated by using 37 models from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). In the simple simulation with CO2 increase at 1% per year but without aerosol forcing, this study finds that intermodel spread in tropical asymmetry is tied to that in the extratropical surface heat flux change related to the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and Southern Ocean sea ice concentration (SIC). AMOC or Southern Ocean SIC change alters net energy flux at the top of the atmosphere and sea surface in one hemisphere and may induce interhemispheric atmospheric energy transport. The negative feedback of the shallow meridional overturning circulation in the tropics and the positive low cloud feedback in the subtropics are also identified. Our results suggest that reducing the intermodel spread in extratropical change can improve the reliability of tropical climate projections.

© 2022 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Shang-Ping Xie, sxie@ucsd.edu

Supplementary Materials

    • Supplemental Materials (PDF 528 KB)
Save