Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

Reduced ENSO Variability due to a Collapsed Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

Bryam Orihuela-Pinto aClimate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
bAustralian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

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Agus Santoso aClimate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
bAustralian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
cCentre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia

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Matthew H. England aClimate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
dAustralian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

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Andréa S. Taschetto aClimate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
bAustralian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

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Online Publication:
19 Jul 2022
Print Publication:
15 Aug 2022
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0293.1
Page(s):
5307–5320
Restricted access

Abstract

Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) collapses have punctuated Earth’s climate in the past, and future projections suggest a weakening and potential collapse in response to global warming and high-latitude ocean freshening. Among its most important teleconnections, the AMOC has been shown to influence El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), although there is no clear consensus on the tendency of this influence or the mechanisms at play. In this study, we investigate the effect of an AMOC collapse on ENSO by adding freshwater in the North Atlantic in a global climate model. The tropical Pacific mean-state changes caused by the AMOC collapse are found to alter the governing ENSO feedbacks, damping the growth rate of ENSO. As a result, ENSO variability is found to decrease by ∼30% due to weaker air–sea coupling associated with a cooler tropical Pacific and an intensified Walker circulation. The decreased ENSO variability manifests in ∼95% less frequent extreme El Niño events and a shift toward more prevalent central Pacific El Niño than eastern Pacific El Niño events, marked by a reduced ENSO nonlinearity and asymmetry. These results provide mechanistic insights into the possible behavior of past and future ENSO in a scenario of a much weakened or collapsed AMOC.

Significance Statement

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) has collapsed in the past and a future collapse due to greenhouse warming is a plausible scenario. An AMOC shutdown would have major ramifications for global climate, with extensive impacts on climate phenomena such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is the strongest source of year-to-year climate variability on the planet. Using numerical simulations, we show that an AMOC shutdown leads to weaker ENSO variability, manifesting in 95% reduction in extreme El Niño events, and a shift of the ENSO pattern toward the central Pacific. This study sheds light on the mechanisms behind these changes, with implications for interpreting past and future ENSO variability.

© 2022 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Bryam Orihuela-Pinto, bryamorihuela@gmail.com

Abstract

Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) collapses have punctuated Earth’s climate in the past, and future projections suggest a weakening and potential collapse in response to global warming and high-latitude ocean freshening. Among its most important teleconnections, the AMOC has been shown to influence El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), although there is no clear consensus on the tendency of this influence or the mechanisms at play. In this study, we investigate the effect of an AMOC collapse on ENSO by adding freshwater in the North Atlantic in a global climate model. The tropical Pacific mean-state changes caused by the AMOC collapse are found to alter the governing ENSO feedbacks, damping the growth rate of ENSO. As a result, ENSO variability is found to decrease by ∼30% due to weaker air–sea coupling associated with a cooler tropical Pacific and an intensified Walker circulation. The decreased ENSO variability manifests in ∼95% less frequent extreme El Niño events and a shift toward more prevalent central Pacific El Niño than eastern Pacific El Niño events, marked by a reduced ENSO nonlinearity and asymmetry. These results provide mechanistic insights into the possible behavior of past and future ENSO in a scenario of a much weakened or collapsed AMOC.

Significance Statement

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) has collapsed in the past and a future collapse due to greenhouse warming is a plausible scenario. An AMOC shutdown would have major ramifications for global climate, with extensive impacts on climate phenomena such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is the strongest source of year-to-year climate variability on the planet. Using numerical simulations, we show that an AMOC shutdown leads to weaker ENSO variability, manifesting in 95% reduction in extreme El Niño events, and a shift of the ENSO pattern toward the central Pacific. This study sheds light on the mechanisms behind these changes, with implications for interpreting past and future ENSO variability.

© 2022 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Bryam Orihuela-Pinto, bryamorihuela@gmail.com

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