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Research Article

Symmetric and Antisymmetric Components of Polar-Amplified Warming

Spencer A. HillaLamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, New York

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Natalie J. BurlsbDepartment of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia

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Alexey FedorovcDepartment of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut
dLOCEAN/IPSL, Sorbonne University, Paris, France

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Timothy M. MerliseDepartment of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada

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Online Publication:
07 Oct 2022
Print Publication:
15 Oct 2022
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0972.1
Page(s):
6757–6772
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Abstract

CO2-forced surface warming in general circulation models (GCMs) is initially polar amplified in the Arctic but not in the Antarctic—a largely hemispherically antisymmetric signal. Nevertheless, we show in CESM1 and 11 LongRunMIP GCMs that the hemispherically symmetric component of global-mean-normalized, zonal-mean warming (Tsym*) under 4 × CO2 changes weakly or becomes modestly more polar amplified from the first decade to near-equilibrium. Conversely, the antisymmetric warming component (Tasym*) weakens with time in all models, modestly in some including FAMOUS, but effectively vanishing in others including CESM1. We explore mechanisms underlying the robust Tsym* behavior with a diffusive moist energy balance model (MEBM), which given radiative feedback parameter (λ) and ocean heat uptake (O) fields diagnosed from CESM1 adequately reproduces the CESM1 Tsym* and Tasym* fields. In further MEBM simulations perturbing λ and O, Tsym* is sensitive to their symmetric components only, and more to that of λ. A three-box, two-time-scale model fitted to FAMOUS and CESM1 reveals a curiously short Antarctic fast-response time scale in FAMOUS. In additional CESM1 simulations spanning a broader range of forcings, Tsym* changes modestly across 2–16 × CO2, and Tsym* in a Pliocene-like simulation is more polar amplified but likewise approximately time invariant. Determining the real-world relevance of these behaviors—which imply that a surprising amount of information about near-equilibrium polar amplification emerges within decades—merits further study.

© 2022 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Hill’s current affiliation: Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey.

Corresponding author: Spencer Hill, spencerh@princeton.edu

Abstract

CO2-forced surface warming in general circulation models (GCMs) is initially polar amplified in the Arctic but not in the Antarctic—a largely hemispherically antisymmetric signal. Nevertheless, we show in CESM1 and 11 LongRunMIP GCMs that the hemispherically symmetric component of global-mean-normalized, zonal-mean warming (Tsym*) under 4 × CO2 changes weakly or becomes modestly more polar amplified from the first decade to near-equilibrium. Conversely, the antisymmetric warming component (Tasym*) weakens with time in all models, modestly in some including FAMOUS, but effectively vanishing in others including CESM1. We explore mechanisms underlying the robust Tsym* behavior with a diffusive moist energy balance model (MEBM), which given radiative feedback parameter (λ) and ocean heat uptake (O) fields diagnosed from CESM1 adequately reproduces the CESM1 Tsym* and Tasym* fields. In further MEBM simulations perturbing λ and O, Tsym* is sensitive to their symmetric components only, and more to that of λ. A three-box, two-time-scale model fitted to FAMOUS and CESM1 reveals a curiously short Antarctic fast-response time scale in FAMOUS. In additional CESM1 simulations spanning a broader range of forcings, Tsym* changes modestly across 2–16 × CO2, and Tsym* in a Pliocene-like simulation is more polar amplified but likewise approximately time invariant. Determining the real-world relevance of these behaviors—which imply that a surprising amount of information about near-equilibrium polar amplification emerges within decades—merits further study.

© 2022 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Hill’s current affiliation: Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey.

Corresponding author: Spencer Hill, spencerh@princeton.edu
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