Finding Storm Track Activity Metrics That Are Highly Correlated with Weather Impacts. Part II: Estimating Precipitation Change Associated with Projected Storm Track Change over Europe

Edmund Kar-Man Chang aSchool of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, State University of New York at Stony Brook, Stony Brook, New York

Search for other papers by Edmund Kar-Man Chang in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Albert Man-Wai Yau aSchool of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, State University of New York at Stony Brook, Stony Brook, New York

Search for other papers by Albert Man-Wai Yau in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
, and
Rui Zhang aSchool of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, State University of New York at Stony Brook, Stony Brook, New York

Search for other papers by Rui Zhang in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
Restricted access

Abstract

The extratropical storm tracks cause much of the high-impact weather in the midlatitudes, and thus it is of interest to examine the weather impacts of projected storm track change. Here, a framework for quantifying storm track impact on precipitation over Europe developed in Part I for winter is extended to all four seasons and applied to estimate the precipitation impacts of CMIP5 and CMIP6 model projected storm track change under the high-emission scenarios. For autumn and winter, a significant portion of the projected decrease in precipitation over southern Europe and the Mediterranean Sea region can be related to a projected decrease in storm track activity over these regions. In winter, the projected increase in storm track activity near the British Isles accentuates the precipitation increase over that region. In summer, a projected storm track decrease over northern Europe is expected to give rise to a decrease in precipitation that expands the projected drying region poleward and reduces the impact of the projected high-latitude precipitation increase related to the increase in atmospheric moisture. CMIP6 models project stronger drying than CMIP5 models over central and northern Europe in summer and autumn. Part of this increased drying can be related to an enhanced decrease in storm track activity projected by CMIP6 models. Apart from multimodel mean projections, different model projected storm track change patterns can give rise to very different regional precipitation impacts, and account for the model spread in precipitation projection in many regions. What causes such model diversity should be further examined.

© 2022 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Edmund Chang, email: kar.chang@stonybrook.edu

Abstract

The extratropical storm tracks cause much of the high-impact weather in the midlatitudes, and thus it is of interest to examine the weather impacts of projected storm track change. Here, a framework for quantifying storm track impact on precipitation over Europe developed in Part I for winter is extended to all four seasons and applied to estimate the precipitation impacts of CMIP5 and CMIP6 model projected storm track change under the high-emission scenarios. For autumn and winter, a significant portion of the projected decrease in precipitation over southern Europe and the Mediterranean Sea region can be related to a projected decrease in storm track activity over these regions. In winter, the projected increase in storm track activity near the British Isles accentuates the precipitation increase over that region. In summer, a projected storm track decrease over northern Europe is expected to give rise to a decrease in precipitation that expands the projected drying region poleward and reduces the impact of the projected high-latitude precipitation increase related to the increase in atmospheric moisture. CMIP6 models project stronger drying than CMIP5 models over central and northern Europe in summer and autumn. Part of this increased drying can be related to an enhanced decrease in storm track activity projected by CMIP6 models. Apart from multimodel mean projections, different model projected storm track change patterns can give rise to very different regional precipitation impacts, and account for the model spread in precipitation projection in many regions. What causes such model diversity should be further examined.

© 2022 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Edmund Chang, email: kar.chang@stonybrook.edu

Supplementary Materials

    • Supplemental Materials (PDF 1.07 MB)
Save
  • Adler, R. F., and Coauthors, 2003: The version-2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) monthly precipitation analysis (1979–present). J. Hydrometeor., 4, 11471167, https://doi.org/10.1175/1525-7541(2003)004<1147:TVGPCP>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ashley, W. S., and A. W. Black, 2008: Fatalities associated with nonconvective high-wind events in the United States. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 47, 717725, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JAMC1689.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Barnett, T. P., and R. Preisendorfer, 1987: Origins and levels of monthly and seasonal forecast skill for United States surface air temperatures determined by canonical correlation analysis. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 18251850, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115<1825:OALOMA>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Berko, J., D. D. Ingram, S. Saha, and J. D. Parker, 2014: Deaths attributed to heat, cold, and other weather events in the United States, 2006–2010. National Center for Health Statistics National Health Statistics Rep. 76, 15 pp., https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25073563/.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Catto, J. L., and Coauthors, 2019: The future of mid-latitude cyclones. Curr. Climate Change Rep., 5, 407420, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-019-00149-4.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Chang, E. K. M., 2017: Projected significant increase in the number of extreme extratropical cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere. J. Climate, 30, 49154935, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0553.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Chang, E. K. M., Y. Guo, and X. Xia, 2012: CMIP5 multimodel ensemble projection of storm track change under global warming. J. Geophys. Res., 117, D23118, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JD018578.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Chang, E. K. M., C. Zheng, P. Lanigan, A. M. W. Yau, and J. D. Neelin, 2015: Significant modulation of variability and projected change in California winter precipitation by extratropical cyclone activity. Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 59835991, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL064424.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Chang, E. K. M., C.-G. Ma, C. Zheng, and A. M. W. Yau, 2016: Observed and projected decrease in Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclone activity in summer and its impacts on maximum temperature. Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 22002208, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL068172.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Collins, M., and Coauthors, 2013: Long-term climate change: Projections, commitments and irreversibility. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. T. F. Stocker et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 10291136.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dawkins, L. C., D. B. Stephenson, J. Lockwood, and P. E. Malsey, 2016: The 21st century decline in damaging European windstorms. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 19992007, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1999-2016.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dee, D. P., and Coauthors, 2011: The ERA‐Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 553597, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Deser, C., A. S. Phillips, M. A. Alexander, and B. V. Smoliak, 2014: Projecting North American climate over the next 50 years: Uncertainty due to internal variability. J. Climate, 27, 22722296, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00451.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Donat, M. G., G. C. Leckebusch, J. G. Pinto, and U. Ulbrich, 2010: Examination of wind storms over Central Europe with respect to circulation weather types and NAO phases. Int. J. Climatol., 30, 12891300, https://doi.org/10.1002/JOC.1982.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Eldardiry, H., and Coauthors, 2019: Atmospheric river-induced precipitation and snowpack during the western United States cold season. J. Hydrometeor., 20, 613630, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-18-0228.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Eyring, V., and Coauthors, 2016: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization. Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 19371958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Flato, G., and Coauthors, 2013: Evaluation of climate models. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, T. F. Stocker et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 741866.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Harvey, B. J., L. C. Shaffrey, T. J. Woollings, G. Zappa, and K. I. Hodges, 2012: How large are projected 21st century storm track changes? Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L052873, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052873.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Harvey, B. J., L. C. Shaffrey, and T. J. Woollings, 2014: Equator-to-pole temperature differences and the extra-tropical storm track responses of the CMIP5 climate models. Climate Dyn., 43, 11711182, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1883-9.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Harvey, B. J., P. Cook, L. C. Shaffrey, and R. Schiemann, 2020: The response of the Northern Hemisphere storm tracks and jet streams to climate change in the CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 climate models. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 125, e2020JD032701, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD032701.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Heideman, K. F., and J. M. Fritsch, 1988: Forcing mechanisms and other characteristics of significant summertime precipitation. Wea. Forecasting, 3, 115130, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(1988)003<0115:FMAOCO>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Held, I. M., and B. J. Soden, 2006: Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming. J. Climate, 19, 56865699, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3990.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hersbach, H., and Coauthors, 2020: The ERA5 global reanalysis. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 19992049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803.

  • Knutti, R., and Coauthors, 2008: A review of uncertainties in global temperature projection over the twenty-first century. J. Climate, 21, 26512663, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI2119.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kriegler, E., and Coauthors, 2017: Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century. Global Environ. Change, 42, 297315, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.015.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Krinner, G., and M. G. Flanner, 2018: Striking stationarity of large-scale climate model bias patterns under strong climate change. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 115, 94629466, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1807912115.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ma, C. G., and E. K. M. Chang, 2017: Impacts of storm-track variations on wintertime extreme weather events over the continental United States. J. Climate, 30, 46014624, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0560.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Osburn, L., K. Keay, and J. L. Catto, 2018: Projected change in wintertime precipitation in California using projected changes in extratropical cyclone activity. J. Climate, 31, 34513465, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0556.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Palmer, T. E., B. B. B. Booth, and C. F. McSweeney, 2021: How does the CMIP6 ensemble change the picture for European climate projections? Environ. Res. Lett., 16, 094042, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac1ed9.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Pfahl, S., and H. Wernli, 2012: Quantifying the relevance of cyclones for precipitation extremes. J. Climate, 25, 67706780, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00705.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Priestley, M. D. K., D. Ackerley, J. L. Catto, K. I. Hodges, R. McDonald, and R. W. Lee, 2020: An overview of the extratropical storm tracks in CMIP6 historical simulations. J. Climate, 33, 63156343, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0928.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Riahi, K., and Coauthors, 2011: RCP 8.5—A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions. Climatic Change, 109, 3357, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0149-y.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Stucki, P., and Coauthors, 2014: A catalog of high-impact windstorms in Switzerland since 1859. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 28672882, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2867-2014.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Taylor, K. E., R. J. Stouffer, and G. A. Meehl, 2012: An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 485498, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wallace, J. M., G.-H. Lim, and M. L. Blackmon, 1988: Relationship between cyclone tracks, anticyclone tracks, and baroclinic waveguides. J. Atmos. Sci., 45, 439462, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1988)045,0439:RBCTAT.2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Yau, A. M. W., and E. K. M. Chang, 2020: Finding storm track activity metrics that are highly correlated with weather impacts. Part I: Frameworks for evaluation and accumulated track activity. J. Climate, 33, 10 16910 186, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0393.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Yin, J. H., 2005: A consistent poleward shift of the storm tracks in simulations of 21st century climate. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L18701, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL023684.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zappa, G., and T. G. Shepherd, 2017: Storylines of atmospheric circulation change for European regional climate impact assessment. J. Climate, 30, 65616577, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0807.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zappa, G., L. C. Shaffrey, and K. I. Hodges, 2013a: The ability of CMIP5 models to simulate North Atlantic extratropical cyclones. J. Climate, 26, 53795396, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00501.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zappa, G., L. C. Shaffrey, K. I. Hodges, P. G. Sansom, and D. B. Stephenson, 2013b: A multimodel assessment of future projections of North Atlantic and European extratropical cyclones in the CMIP5 climate models. J. Climate, 26, 58465862, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00573.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zappa, G., M. K. Hawcroft, L. Shaffrey, E. Black, and D. J. Brayshaw, 2015: Extratropical cyclones and the projected decline of winter Mediterranean precipitation in the CMIP5 models. Climate Dyn., 45, 17271738, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2426-8.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 541 0 0
Full Text Views 561 285 17
PDF Downloads 529 212 15