Joint Effect of West Pacific Warming and the Arctic Oscillation on the Bidecadal Variation and Trend of the East Asian Trough

Marco Y.-T. Leung aSchool of Marine Sciences, Sun Yat-Sen University, Zhuhai, China
bSouthern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai, China
cGuy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China

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Dongxiao Wang aSchool of Marine Sciences, Sun Yat-Sen University, Zhuhai, China
bSouthern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai, China

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Wen Zhou cGuy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
dDepartment of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Shanghai Frontiers Science Center of Atmosphere-Ocean Interaction, Fudan University, Shanghai, China

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Paxson K. Y. Cheung cGuy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China

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Yuntao Jian cGuy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China

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Fuan Xiao eSchool of Geographical and Remote Sensing, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou, China
fState Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics, Second Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Hangzhou, China

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Abstract

This study investigates bidecadal variation and trends in the winter East Asian trough (EAT) intensity for the period from 1958 to 2020. The EAT intensity index, calculated with the JRA55 reanalysis, demonstrates bidecadal variation, which is closely related to the intensity of cold advection in East Asia that affects northeast China, the Korean Peninsula, and Japan. In addition, it is noted that the positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) plays an important role in suppressing EAT intensity, particularly on a bidecadal time scale. On the other hand, a warm anomaly in the west Pacific can enhance the intensity of the EAT, which is also reproduced by numerical simulation. The influence of a significant warming trend in the west Pacific and a weak positive trend in the AO on the EAT intensity and the East Asian winter monsoon is investigated. Warming in the west Pacific supports a strengthening of EAT intensity, cooling in northeast Asia, and enhancement of easterly wind in the subtropical west Pacific. A weak positive AO trend plays an insignificant role in affecting the trend of EAT intensity, but it supports warming in northeast Asia.

© 2022 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Wen Zhou, wen_zhou@fudan.edu.cn

Abstract

This study investigates bidecadal variation and trends in the winter East Asian trough (EAT) intensity for the period from 1958 to 2020. The EAT intensity index, calculated with the JRA55 reanalysis, demonstrates bidecadal variation, which is closely related to the intensity of cold advection in East Asia that affects northeast China, the Korean Peninsula, and Japan. In addition, it is noted that the positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) plays an important role in suppressing EAT intensity, particularly on a bidecadal time scale. On the other hand, a warm anomaly in the west Pacific can enhance the intensity of the EAT, which is also reproduced by numerical simulation. The influence of a significant warming trend in the west Pacific and a weak positive trend in the AO on the EAT intensity and the East Asian winter monsoon is investigated. Warming in the west Pacific supports a strengthening of EAT intensity, cooling in northeast Asia, and enhancement of easterly wind in the subtropical west Pacific. A weak positive AO trend plays an insignificant role in affecting the trend of EAT intensity, but it supports warming in northeast Asia.

© 2022 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Wen Zhou, wen_zhou@fudan.edu.cn
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