Abstract
Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of rainfall extremes. Understanding future changes in rainfall is necessary for adaptation planning. Eastern Africa is vulnerable to rainfall extremes because of low adaptive capacity and high future population growth. Convection-permitting climate models have been found to better represent moderate (yearly) rainfall extremes than parameterized convection models, but there is limited analysis of rare extremes that occur less frequently than once per year. These events often have the largest socioeconomic impacts. We use extreme value theory and regional frequency analysis to quantify rare rainfall extremes over East Africa in a convection-permitting climate model (CP4A). We compare the results with its parameterized counterpart (P25), the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment for the African region (CORDEX-Africa) ensemble, and observations to understand how the convection parameterization impacts the results. We find that CP4A better matches observations than the parameterized models. With climate change, we find the parameterized convection models have unrealistically high changes in the shape parameter of the extreme value distribution, which controls the tail behavior (i.e., the most extreme events), leading to large increases in return levels of events with a return period of >20 years. This suggests that parameterized convection models may not be suitable for looking at relative changes in rare rainfall events with climate change and that convection-permitting models should be preferred for this type of work. With the more realistic CP4A, RCP8.5 end-of-century climate change leads to 1-in-100-yr events becoming 1-in-23-yr events, which will necessitate serious adaptation efforts to avoid devastating socioeconomic impacts.
Significance Statement
We use a new, high-resolution climate model to examine how rare extreme rainfall events in East Africa might change in the future with climate change and compare the results with those from standard-resolution climate models. We find that the standard-resolution models have unrealistically large increases in rainfall for events that occur less frequently than every 20 years. The high-resolution model is more realistic and is required to illustrate possible future changes in rare rainfall extremes. Extreme events will become more common with climate change, and in the more realistic model we show that a 1-in-100-yr event may become a 1-in-23-yr event by the end of the century if greenhouse gas emissions are not significantly reduced.
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