Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

Interdecadal Variations of the Scandinavian Pattern

Bo Pang aState Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

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https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3502-9797
,
Adam A. Scaife bMet Office Hadley Centre, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom
cCollege of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, Exeter University, Exeter, United Kingdom

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Riyu Lu aState Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
dCollege of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

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Rongcai Ren aState Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
eKey Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education, Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change, Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China

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Xiaoxuan Zhao fNansen-Zhu International Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

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Online Publication:
20 Apr 2023
Print Publication:
15 May 2023
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0494.1
Page(s):
3275–3288
Restricted access

Abstract

This study investigates the interdecadal variation of the Scandinavian (SCA) pattern and corresponding drivers during the boreal winter. It is found that the SCA pattern experiences a prominent regime shift from its negative to positive phase in the early 2000s based on several reanalyses. This interdecadal change contributes to an extensive cooling over Siberia after the early 2000s, revealing its importance for recent variations of climate over Eurasia. The outputs from 35 coupled models within phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) are also analyzed. The results show that the interdecadal change of the SCA is weak in response to external forcings but can be largely explained by internal variability associated with a change of precipitation over the tropical Atlantic. Further analysis indicates that the enhanced tropical convection induces poleward propagation of Rossby waves and further results in an intensification of geopotential height over the Scandinavian Peninsula during the transition to positive SCA phases. These findings imply a contribution of tropical forcing to the observed interdecadal strengthening of the SCA around the early 2000s and offer an insight into the understanding of future climate change over the Eurasian continent.

© 2023 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Bo Pang, pangbo@mail.iap.ac.cn

Abstract

This study investigates the interdecadal variation of the Scandinavian (SCA) pattern and corresponding drivers during the boreal winter. It is found that the SCA pattern experiences a prominent regime shift from its negative to positive phase in the early 2000s based on several reanalyses. This interdecadal change contributes to an extensive cooling over Siberia after the early 2000s, revealing its importance for recent variations of climate over Eurasia. The outputs from 35 coupled models within phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) are also analyzed. The results show that the interdecadal change of the SCA is weak in response to external forcings but can be largely explained by internal variability associated with a change of precipitation over the tropical Atlantic. Further analysis indicates that the enhanced tropical convection induces poleward propagation of Rossby waves and further results in an intensification of geopotential height over the Scandinavian Peninsula during the transition to positive SCA phases. These findings imply a contribution of tropical forcing to the observed interdecadal strengthening of the SCA around the early 2000s and offer an insight into the understanding of future climate change over the Eurasian continent.

© 2023 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Bo Pang, pangbo@mail.iap.ac.cn

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