Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

Constraint of Air–Sea Interaction Significant to Skillful Predictions of North Pacific Climate Variations

Yujun He aState Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

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Bin Wang aState Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
bMinistry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling and Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
cCollege of Ocean Science, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
dSouthern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory, Zhuhai, China

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Jiabei Fang eCMA-NJU Joint Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies, Institute for Climate and Global Change Research, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China

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Yongqiang Yu aState Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
cCollege of Ocean Science, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

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Lijuan Li aState Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

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Juanjuan Liu aState Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

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Li Dong aState Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

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Ye Pu aState Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

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Yiyuan Li aState Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

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Shiming Xu bMinistry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling and Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China

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Li Liu bMinistry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling and Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China

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Yanluan Lin bMinistry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling and Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China

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Wenyu Huang bMinistry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling and Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China

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Xiaomeng Huang bMinistry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling and Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China

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Yong Wang bMinistry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling and Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China

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Hongbo Liu aState Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

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Kun Xia aState Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

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Online Publication:
08 Aug 2023
Print Publication:
01 Sep 2023
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0635.1
Page(s):
5941–5962
Restricted access

Abstract

The Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) is the most dominant decadal climate variability over the North Pacific and has substantial global impacts. However, the interannual and decadal PDO prediction skills are not satisfactory, which may result from the failure of appropriately including the North Pacific midlatitude air–sea interaction (ASI) in the initialization for climate predictions. Here, we present a novel initialization method with a climate model to crack this nutshell and achieve successful PDO index predictions up to 10 years in advance. This approach incorporates oceanic observations under the constraint of ASI, thus obtaining atmospheric initial conditions (ICs) consistent with oceanic ICs. During predictions, positive atmospheric feedback to sea surface temperature changes and time-delayed negative ocean circulation feedback to the atmosphere over the North Pacific play essential roles in the high PDO index prediction skills. Our findings highlight a great potential of ASI constraints during initialization for skillful PDO predictions.

Significance Statement

The Pacific decadal oscillation is a prominent decadal climate variability over the North Pacific. However, accurately predicting the Pacific decadal oscillation remains a challenge. In this study, we use an advanced initialization method where the oceanic observations are incorporated into a climate model constrained by air–sea interactions. We can successfully predict the Pacific decadal oscillation up to 10 years in advance, which is hardly achieved by the state-of-the-art climate prediction systems. Our results suggest that the constraint of air–sea interaction during initialization is important to skillful predictions of the climate variability on decadal time scales.

© 2023 American Meteorological Society. This published article is licensed under the terms of the default AMS reuse license. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Bin Wang, wab@lasg.iap.ac.cn

Abstract

The Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) is the most dominant decadal climate variability over the North Pacific and has substantial global impacts. However, the interannual and decadal PDO prediction skills are not satisfactory, which may result from the failure of appropriately including the North Pacific midlatitude air–sea interaction (ASI) in the initialization for climate predictions. Here, we present a novel initialization method with a climate model to crack this nutshell and achieve successful PDO index predictions up to 10 years in advance. This approach incorporates oceanic observations under the constraint of ASI, thus obtaining atmospheric initial conditions (ICs) consistent with oceanic ICs. During predictions, positive atmospheric feedback to sea surface temperature changes and time-delayed negative ocean circulation feedback to the atmosphere over the North Pacific play essential roles in the high PDO index prediction skills. Our findings highlight a great potential of ASI constraints during initialization for skillful PDO predictions.

Significance Statement

The Pacific decadal oscillation is a prominent decadal climate variability over the North Pacific. However, accurately predicting the Pacific decadal oscillation remains a challenge. In this study, we use an advanced initialization method where the oceanic observations are incorporated into a climate model constrained by air–sea interactions. We can successfully predict the Pacific decadal oscillation up to 10 years in advance, which is hardly achieved by the state-of-the-art climate prediction systems. Our results suggest that the constraint of air–sea interaction during initialization is important to skillful predictions of the climate variability on decadal time scales.

© 2023 American Meteorological Society. This published article is licensed under the terms of the default AMS reuse license. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Bin Wang, wab@lasg.iap.ac.cn

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