Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

Decadal Change in Cold Surges over the South China Sea

Bo Pang aState Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

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https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3502-9797
,
Riyu Lu aState Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
bCollege of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

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A. Scaife Adam cMet Office Hadley Centre, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom
dCollege of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, Exeter University, Exeter, United Kingdom

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, and
Rongcai Ren aState Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
eKey Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME), Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC), Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China

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Online Publication:
23 Nov 2023
Print Publication:
15 Dec 2023
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0254.1
Page(s):
8461–8474
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Abstract

This study identifies that cold surges over the South China Sea (SCS) have experienced a significant change on decadal time scales. The results indicate that cold surges occur more frequently after the early 2000s than before and are at least partially explained by changes in circulation patterns. Both the negative phase of the Scandinavian (SCA) pattern and the cold phase of the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) can induce increased cold surges and the IPO effect dominates in recent decades. When the IPO shifts to its cold phase, low-level cyclones are induced over the western North Pacific through a Gill response. The northeasterlies along the northwest flank of the cyclones further lead to intensified cold surges over the SCS. The above processes can be reproduced in coupled models, suggesting a robust connection between the IPO and cold surges. The present findings highlight the role of tropical forcing and bring insight into understanding of the future climate variability and change over East Asia during boreal winter.

© 2023 American Meteorological Society. This published article is licensed under the terms of the default AMS reuse license. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Bo Pang, pangbo@mail.iap.ac.cn

Abstract

This study identifies that cold surges over the South China Sea (SCS) have experienced a significant change on decadal time scales. The results indicate that cold surges occur more frequently after the early 2000s than before and are at least partially explained by changes in circulation patterns. Both the negative phase of the Scandinavian (SCA) pattern and the cold phase of the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) can induce increased cold surges and the IPO effect dominates in recent decades. When the IPO shifts to its cold phase, low-level cyclones are induced over the western North Pacific through a Gill response. The northeasterlies along the northwest flank of the cyclones further lead to intensified cold surges over the SCS. The above processes can be reproduced in coupled models, suggesting a robust connection between the IPO and cold surges. The present findings highlight the role of tropical forcing and bring insight into understanding of the future climate variability and change over East Asia during boreal winter.

© 2023 American Meteorological Society. This published article is licensed under the terms of the default AMS reuse license. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Bo Pang, pangbo@mail.iap.ac.cn

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