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Causes of the Extreme Drought in Late Summer–Autumn 2019 in Eastern China and Its Future Risk

Lin ChenaKey Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China

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Yuqing LiaKey Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China

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Zi-An GeaKey Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China

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Bo LubLaboratory for Climate Studies and CMA-NJU Joint Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China

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Lu WangaKey Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China

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Xiaojun WeiaKey Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China

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Ming SunaKey Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China

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Ziyue WangaKey Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China

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Tim LicInternational Pacific Research Center and Department of Atmospheric Sciences, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa, Honolulu, Hawaii
aKey Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China

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Jing-Jia LuoaKey Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China

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Online Publication:
23 Jan 2023
Print Publication:
15 Feb 2023
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0305.1
Page(s):
1085–1104
Restricted access

Abstract

Eastern China (EC) suffered an extreme drought with long-lasting duration and record-breaking intensity in late summer–autumn 2019. Our diagnosed results show that the central Pacific (CP) El Niño, in tandem with warm sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over the Kuroshio Extension (KE) region, induces the meridionally elongated cyclonic circulation anomalies stretching from the western North Pacific (WNP) to the Yellow Sea. Its western flank corresponds to overwhelming low-level northerly wind anomalies over EC, which result in deficient moisture and anomalous descent over EC and hence cause the extreme drought in 2019. To investigate the relative contributions of SSTAs over different regions, we performed sensitivity experiments, and analyzed the relationship between extreme drought like what occurred in 2019 (a 2019Drought-like event) and the SSTAs in CMIP6 historical simulations. Modeling evidences reveal that both warm SSTAs over the central equatorial Pacific and the KE region are indispensable for shaping the meridionally elongated cyclone anomaly. Specifically, the cyclone anomaly over the WNP induced by CP El Niño aligns with the cyclone anomaly over the Yellow Sea induced by the warm SSTAs over the KE region, merging into a meridionally stretched cyclone anomaly to the east of EC. Consequently, the northerly anomalies stretch across EC, leading to unfavorable atmospheric conditions and the rainfall deficit there. Projection results show that the occurrence probability of a 2019Drought-like event will increase by 20% (decrease by 40%–50%) under a high (medium-low) emission scenario compared to present-day climate, indicating the nonlinear response of extreme drought to different emission scenarios and the urgency of carbon emission reduction.

Significance Statement

An extreme drought hit the Eastern China (EC) region in 2019 and caused tremendous losses. This study proposed that both the 2019 CP El Niño and the warm SST anomalies over the Kuroshio Extension (KE) region induce the meridionally elongated circulation anomalies and the resultant extreme drought. We showed that the typical circulation anomalies induced by central Pacific (CP) El Niño cannot totally explain the meridionally elongated circulation anomalies in 2019. Our modeling evidences confirmed the indispensable role of warm SST anomalies over KE region in the 2019 extreme drought’s formation. The projection results show that extreme drought like that in 2019 will occur more (less) frequently under a high (medium-low) emission scenario compared to modern-day level, indicating the urgency of carbon emission reduction.

© 2023 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Lin Chen, chenlin@nuist.edu.cn

Abstract

Eastern China (EC) suffered an extreme drought with long-lasting duration and record-breaking intensity in late summer–autumn 2019. Our diagnosed results show that the central Pacific (CP) El Niño, in tandem with warm sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over the Kuroshio Extension (KE) region, induces the meridionally elongated cyclonic circulation anomalies stretching from the western North Pacific (WNP) to the Yellow Sea. Its western flank corresponds to overwhelming low-level northerly wind anomalies over EC, which result in deficient moisture and anomalous descent over EC and hence cause the extreme drought in 2019. To investigate the relative contributions of SSTAs over different regions, we performed sensitivity experiments, and analyzed the relationship between extreme drought like what occurred in 2019 (a 2019Drought-like event) and the SSTAs in CMIP6 historical simulations. Modeling evidences reveal that both warm SSTAs over the central equatorial Pacific and the KE region are indispensable for shaping the meridionally elongated cyclone anomaly. Specifically, the cyclone anomaly over the WNP induced by CP El Niño aligns with the cyclone anomaly over the Yellow Sea induced by the warm SSTAs over the KE region, merging into a meridionally stretched cyclone anomaly to the east of EC. Consequently, the northerly anomalies stretch across EC, leading to unfavorable atmospheric conditions and the rainfall deficit there. Projection results show that the occurrence probability of a 2019Drought-like event will increase by 20% (decrease by 40%–50%) under a high (medium-low) emission scenario compared to present-day climate, indicating the nonlinear response of extreme drought to different emission scenarios and the urgency of carbon emission reduction.

Significance Statement

An extreme drought hit the Eastern China (EC) region in 2019 and caused tremendous losses. This study proposed that both the 2019 CP El Niño and the warm SST anomalies over the Kuroshio Extension (KE) region induce the meridionally elongated circulation anomalies and the resultant extreme drought. We showed that the typical circulation anomalies induced by central Pacific (CP) El Niño cannot totally explain the meridionally elongated circulation anomalies in 2019. Our modeling evidences confirmed the indispensable role of warm SST anomalies over KE region in the 2019 extreme drought’s formation. The projection results show that extreme drought like that in 2019 will occur more (less) frequently under a high (medium-low) emission scenario compared to modern-day level, indicating the urgency of carbon emission reduction.

© 2023 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Lin Chen, chenlin@nuist.edu.cn

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