Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

Enhanced Mid-to-Late Summer Precipitation over Midlatitude East Asia under Global Warming

Chuan-Yang Wang aFrontier Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China
bLaoshan Laboratory, Qingdao, China

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https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8480-0261
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Xiao-Tong Zheng aFrontier Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China
bLaoshan Laboratory, Qingdao, China

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Fengfei Song aFrontier Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China
bLaoshan Laboratory, Qingdao, China

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Online Publication:
02 Aug 2024
Print Publication:
01 Aug 2024
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0726.1
Page(s):
4221–4237
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Abstract

East Asian summer monsoon precipitation is projected to increase under greenhouse warming with strong intraseasonal variation. Using a 35-member CESM Large Ensemble and 30 CMIP6 models, this study reveals that in July and August, maximum rainfall changes in East Asia take place in the midlatitudes, influencing regions encompassing North and Northeast China, the Korean Peninsula, and Japan. The intensified precipitation is attributed to the combined effect of the thermodynamic and dynamic components. The former stems from the enriched low-level moisture, which peaks in continental East Asia in July and August, under global warming. The dynamic effect is due to the enhanced upward motion, associated with the enhanced southerlies throughout the troposphere over midlatitude East Asia. The southerlies also act to intensify the low-level monsoonal circulation, strengthening moisture transport from the tropical ocean to the midlatitudes. In addition to the mean-state changes, the precipitation interannual variability in this region also intensifies, partly due to the enhanced low-level moisture and partly associated with enhanced large-scale circulation anomalies, such as the northwestern Pacific anticyclone. The enhanced background precipitation, along with the intensified interannual variability, may lead to more rainy summers in a warmer climate, with instances where historically extreme precipitation events become more frequent, posing challenges for water resource management and agriculture in the region.

© 2024 American Meteorological Society. This published article is licensed under the terms of the default AMS reuse license. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Xiao-Tong Zheng, zhengxt@ouc.edu.cn

Abstract

East Asian summer monsoon precipitation is projected to increase under greenhouse warming with strong intraseasonal variation. Using a 35-member CESM Large Ensemble and 30 CMIP6 models, this study reveals that in July and August, maximum rainfall changes in East Asia take place in the midlatitudes, influencing regions encompassing North and Northeast China, the Korean Peninsula, and Japan. The intensified precipitation is attributed to the combined effect of the thermodynamic and dynamic components. The former stems from the enriched low-level moisture, which peaks in continental East Asia in July and August, under global warming. The dynamic effect is due to the enhanced upward motion, associated with the enhanced southerlies throughout the troposphere over midlatitude East Asia. The southerlies also act to intensify the low-level monsoonal circulation, strengthening moisture transport from the tropical ocean to the midlatitudes. In addition to the mean-state changes, the precipitation interannual variability in this region also intensifies, partly due to the enhanced low-level moisture and partly associated with enhanced large-scale circulation anomalies, such as the northwestern Pacific anticyclone. The enhanced background precipitation, along with the intensified interannual variability, may lead to more rainy summers in a warmer climate, with instances where historically extreme precipitation events become more frequent, posing challenges for water resource management and agriculture in the region.

© 2024 American Meteorological Society. This published article is licensed under the terms of the default AMS reuse license. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Xiao-Tong Zheng, zhengxt@ouc.edu.cn

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