Abstract
In the Southern Hemisphere, Earth system models project an intensification of winter storm tracks by the end of the twenty-first century. Previous studies using idealized models showed that storm track intensity saturates with increasing temperatures, suggesting that the intensification of the winter storm tracks might not continue further with increasing greenhouse gases. Here, we examine the response of midlatitude winter storm tracks in the Southern Hemisphere to increasing CO2 from two to eight times preindustrial concentrations in more realistic Earth system models. We find that at high CO2 levels (beyond 4×CO2), winter storm tracks no longer exhibit an intensification across the extratropics. Instead, they shift poleward, weakening the storm tracks at lower midlatitudes and strengthening at higher midlatitudes. By analyzing the eddy kinetic energy (EKE) budget, the nonlinear storm-track response to an increase in CO2 levels in the lower midlatitudes is found to stem from a scale-dependent conversion of eddy available potential energy to EKE. Specifically, in the lower midlatitudes, this energy conversion acts to oppositely change the EKE of long and short scales at low CO2 levels, but at high CO2 levels, it mostly reduces the EKE of shorter scales, resulting in a poleward shift of the storms. Furthermore, we identify a “tug of war” between the upper and lower temperature changes as the primary driver of the nonlinear-scale-dependent EKE response in the lower midlatitudes. Our results suggest that in the highest emission scenarios beyond the twenty-first century, the storm tracks’ response may differ in magnitude and latitudinal distribution from projected changes by 2100.
Significance Statement
The Southern Hemisphere winter storm track is projected to intensify by the end of the century, with the most significant intensification occurring in the higher midlatitudes. However, we show that the intensification is not a linear function of the radiative forcing associated with increasing CO2 levels. In fact, our study shows a poleward shift at very high CO2 levels, with the storm track moving southward. This suggests that the Southern Hemisphere winter storm track may require time-sensitive adaptation strategies, as the impacts of global warming on the storm track may not be a linear function of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere.
© 2024 American Meteorological Society. This published article is licensed under the terms of the default AMS reuse license. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).
