Spatiotemporal Variability of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Density in the Northwest Pacific

Shuo Li aDepartment of Earth, Marine and Environmental Sciences, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina

Search for other papers by Shuo Li in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
and
Wei Mei aDepartment of Earth, Marine and Environmental Sciences, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina

Search for other papers by Wei Mei in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
Restricted access

Abstract

The small sample size of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis in the observations prevents us from fully characterizing its spatiotemporal variations. Here we take advantage of a large ensemble of 60-km-resolution atmospheric simulations to address this issue over the northwest Pacific (NWP) during 1951–2010. The variations in annual TC genesis density are explored separately on interannual and decadal time scales. The interannual variability is dominated by two leading modes. One is characterized by a dipole pattern, and its temporal evolution is closely linked to the developing ENSO. The other mode features high loadings in the central part of the basin, with out-of-phase changes near the equator and date line, and tends to occur during ENSO decay years. On decadal time scales, TC genesis density variability is primarily controlled by one mode, which exhibits an east–west dipole pattern with strong signals confined to south of 20°N and is tied to the interdecadal Pacific oscillation–like sea surface temperature anomalies. Further, we investigate the seasonal evolution of the ENSO effect on TC genesis density. The results highlight the distinct impacts of the two types of ENSO (i.e., eastern Pacific vs central Pacific) on TC genesis density in the NWP during a specific season and show the strong seasonal dependency of the TC genesis response to ENSO. Although the results from the observations are not as prominent as those from the simulations because of the small sample size, the high consistency between them demonstrates the fidelity of the model in reproducing TC statistics and variability in the observations.

This article is included in the U.S. CLIVAR - Hurricanes and Climate Special Collection.

© 2024 American Meteorological Society. This published article is licensed under the terms of the default AMS reuse license. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Wei Mei, wmei@email.unc.edu

Abstract

The small sample size of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis in the observations prevents us from fully characterizing its spatiotemporal variations. Here we take advantage of a large ensemble of 60-km-resolution atmospheric simulations to address this issue over the northwest Pacific (NWP) during 1951–2010. The variations in annual TC genesis density are explored separately on interannual and decadal time scales. The interannual variability is dominated by two leading modes. One is characterized by a dipole pattern, and its temporal evolution is closely linked to the developing ENSO. The other mode features high loadings in the central part of the basin, with out-of-phase changes near the equator and date line, and tends to occur during ENSO decay years. On decadal time scales, TC genesis density variability is primarily controlled by one mode, which exhibits an east–west dipole pattern with strong signals confined to south of 20°N and is tied to the interdecadal Pacific oscillation–like sea surface temperature anomalies. Further, we investigate the seasonal evolution of the ENSO effect on TC genesis density. The results highlight the distinct impacts of the two types of ENSO (i.e., eastern Pacific vs central Pacific) on TC genesis density in the NWP during a specific season and show the strong seasonal dependency of the TC genesis response to ENSO. Although the results from the observations are not as prominent as those from the simulations because of the small sample size, the high consistency between them demonstrates the fidelity of the model in reproducing TC statistics and variability in the observations.

This article is included in the U.S. CLIVAR - Hurricanes and Climate Special Collection.

© 2024 American Meteorological Society. This published article is licensed under the terms of the default AMS reuse license. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Wei Mei, wmei@email.unc.edu

Supplementary Materials

    • Supplemental Materials (PDF 5.3766 MB)
Save
  • Aiyyer, A., and C. Thorncroft, 2011: Interannual-to-multidecadal variability of vertical shear and tropical cyclone activity. J. Climate, 24, 29492962, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3698.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ashok, K., S. K. Behera, S. A. Rao, H. Weng, and T. Yamagata, 2007: El Niño Modoki and its possible teleconnection. J. Geophys. Res., 112, C11007, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JC003798.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bell, R., K. Hodges, P. L. Vidale, J. Strachan, and M. Roberts, 2014: Simulation of the global ENSO–tropical cyclone teleconnection by a high-resolution coupled general circulation model. J. Climate, 27, 64046422, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00559.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Camargo, S. J., and A. H. Sobel, 2005: Western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity and ENSO. J. Climate, 18, 29963006, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3457.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Camargo, S. J., K. A. Emanuel, and A. H. Sobel, 2007: Use of a genesis potential index to diagnose ENSO effects on tropical cyclone genesis. J. Climate, 20, 48194834, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4282.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Camargo, S. J., and Coauthors, 2019: Tropical cyclone prediction on subseasonal time-scales. Trop. Cyclone Res. Rev., 8, 150165, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr.2019.10.004.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Chan, J. C. L., 1985: Tropical cyclone activity in the northwest Pacific in relation to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon. Mon. Wea. Rev., 113, 599606, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1985)113<0599:TCAITN>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Chan, J. C. L., 2005: Interannual and interdecadal variations of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific. Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 89, 143152, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-005-0126-y.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Chan, J. C. L., and J.-e. Shi, 1996: Long-term trends and interannual variability in tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific. Geophys. Res. Lett., 23, 27652767, https://doi.org/10.1029/96GL02637.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Chen, G., and C.-Y. Tam, 2010: Different impacts of two kinds of Pacific Ocean warming on tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L01803, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL041708.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Chia, H. H., and C. F. Ropelewski, 2002: The interannual variability in the genesis location of tropical cyclones in the northwest Pacific. J. Climate, 15, 29342944, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<2934:TIVITG>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Chu, P.-S., 2004: ENSO and tropical cyclone activity. Hurricanes and Typhoons: Past, Present, and Future, R. J. Murnane and K.-B. Liu, Eds., Columbia University Press, 297–332.

  • Chung, P.-H., and T. Li, 2015: Characteristics of tropical cyclone genesis in the western North Pacific during the developing and decaying phases of two types of El Niño. J. Trop. Meteor., 21, 1422, https://www.proquest.com/docview/1648091544?accountid=14229.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Du, Y., L. Yang, and S.-P. Xie, 2011: Tropical Indian Ocean influence on northwest Pacific tropical cyclones in summer following strong El Niño. J. Climate, 24, 315322, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3890.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Emanuel, K. A., 2010: Tropical cyclone activity downscaled from NOAA-CIRES reanalysis, 1908–1958. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 2 (1), https://doi.org/10.3894/JAMES.2010.2.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Geiger, T., J. Gütschow, D. N. Bresch, K. Emanuel, and K. Frieler, 2021: Double benefit of limiting global warming for tropical cyclone exposure. Nat. Climate Change, 11, 861866, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01157-9.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ha, Y., Z. Zhong, X. Yang, and Y. Sun, 2015: Contribution of East Indian Ocean SSTA to western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity under El Niño/La Niña conditions. Int. J. Climatol., 35, 506519, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3997.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Henley, B. J., J. Gergis, D. J. Karoly, S. Power, J. Kennedy, and C. K. Folland, 2015: A tripole index for the interdecadal Pacific oscillation. Climate Dyn., 45, 30773090, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2525-1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hirahara, S., M. Ishii, and Y. Fukuda, 2014: Centennial-scale sea surface temperature analysis and its uncertainty. J. Climate, 27, 5775, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00837.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hsu, P.-C., P.-S. Chu, H. Murakami, and X. Zhao, 2014: An abrupt decrease in the late-season typhoon activity over the western North Pacific. J. Climate, 27, 42964312, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00417.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hu, F., T. Li, J. Liu, and M. Peng, 2018: Cause of interdecadal change of tropical cyclone controlling parameter in the western North Pacific. Climate Dyn., 51, 719732, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3951-z.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ishii, M., A. Shouji, S. Sugimoto, and T. Matsumoto, 2005: Objective analyses of sea-surface temperature and marine meteorological variables for the 20th century using ICOADS and the Kobe collection. Int. J. Climatol., 25, 865879, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1169.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kao, H.-Y., and J.-Y. Yu, 2009: Contrasting eastern-Pacific and central-Pacific types of ENSO. J. Climate, 22, 615632, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2309.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kim, H.-K., K.-H. Seo, S.-W. Yeh, N.-Y. Kang, and B.-K. Moon, 2020: Asymmetric impact of central Pacific ENSO on the reduction of tropical cyclone genesis frequency over the western North Pacific since the late 1990s. Climate Dyn., 54, 661673, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-05020-8.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kim, H.-M., P. J. Webster, and J. A. Curry, 2011: Modulation of North Pacific tropical cyclone activity by three phases of ENSO. J. Climate, 24, 18391849, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3939.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Knapp, K. R., H. J. Diamond, J. P. Kossin, M. C. Kruk, and C. J. Schreck, 2018: International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) Project, version 4. NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Information, accessed October 2021, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/international-best-track-archive.

  • Knutson, T. R., and Coauthors, 2010: Tropical cyclones and climate change. Nat. Geosci., 3, 157163, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo779.

  • Kobayashi, S., and Coauthors, 2015: The JRA-55 reanalysis: General specifications and basic characteristics. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 93, 548, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2015-001.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Korty, R. L., S. J. Camargo, and J. Galewsky, 2012: Tropical cyclone genesis factors in simulations of the last glacial maximum. J. Climate, 25, 43484365, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00517.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Korty, R. L., K. A. Emanuel, M. Huber, and R. A. Zamora, 2017: Tropical cyclones downscaled from simulations with very high carbon dioxide levels. J. Climate, 30, 649667, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0256.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kossin, J. P., K. A. Emanuel, and S. J. Camargo, 2016: Past and projected changes in western North Pacific tropical cyclone exposure. J. Climate, 29, 57255739, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0076.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Landsea, C. W., G. A. Vecchi, L. Bengtsson, and T. R. Knutson, 2010: Impact of duration thresholds on Atlantic tropical cyclone counts. J. Climate, 23, 25082519, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3034.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Larkin, N. K., and D. E. Harrison, 2005: Global seasonal temperature and precipitation anomalies during El Niño autumn and winter. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L16705, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL022860.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lee, T.-C., T. R. Knutson, T. Nakaegawa, M. Ying, and E. J. Cha, 2020: Third assessment on impacts of climate change on tropical cyclones in the typhoon committee region—Part I: Observed changes, detection and attribution. Trop. Cyclone Res. Rev., 9 (1), 122, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr.2020.03.001.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Li, S., W. Mei, and S.-P. Xie, 2022: Effects of tropical sea surface temperature variability on Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclone genesis. J. Climate, 35, 47194739, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0084.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lin, I.-I., and J. C. L. Chan, 2015: Recent decrease in typhoon destructive potential and global warming implications. Nat. Commun., 6, 7182, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms8182.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lin, I.-I., and Coauthors, 2020: ENSO and tropical cyclones. El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate, Geophys. Monogr., Vol. 253, Amer. Geophys. Union, 377–408, https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119548164.ch17.

  • Liu, K. S., and J. C. L. Chan, 2013: Inactive period of western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity in 1998–2011. J. Climate, 26, 26142630, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00053.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Matsuura, T., M. Yumoto, and S. Iizuka, 2003: A mechanism of interdecadal variability of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific. Climate Dyn., 21, 105117, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-003-0327-3.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Mei, W., and S.-P. Xie, 2016: Intensification of landfalling typhoons over the northwest Pacific since the late 1970s. Nat. Geosci., 9, 753757, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2792.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Mei, W., and S. Li, 2022: Variability and predictability of basinwide and sub-basin tropical cyclone genesis frequency in the northwest Pacific. J. Climate, 35, 68656884, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0232.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Mei, W., S.-P. Xie, and M. Zhao, 2014: Variability of tropical cyclone track density in the North Atlantic: Observations and high-resolution simulations. J. Climate, 27, 47974814, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00587.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Mei, W., S.-P. Xie, M. Zhao, and Y. Wang, 2015: Forced and internal variability of tropical cyclone track density in the western North Pacific. J. Climate, 28, 143167, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00164.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Mei, W., Y. Kamae, S.-P. Xie, and K. Yoshida, 2019: Variability and predictability of North Atlantic hurricane frequency in a large ensemble of high-resolution atmospheric simulations. J. Climate, 32, 31533167, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0554.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Menkes, C. E., M. Lengaigne, P. Marchesiello, N. C. Jourdain, E. M. Vincent, J. Lefevre, F. Chauvin, and J.-F. Royer, 2012: Comparison of tropical cyclogenesis indices on seasonal to interannual timescales. Climate Dyn., 38, 301321, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1126-x.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Mizuta, R., and Coauthors, 2017: Over 5,000 years of ensemble future climate simulations by 60-km global and 20-km regional atmospheric models. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 98, 13831398, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0099.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Murakami, H., R. Mizuta, and E. Shindo, 2012: Future changes in tropical cyclone activity projected by multi-physics and multi-SST ensemble experiments using the 60-km-mesh MRIAGCM. Climate Dyn., 39, 25692584, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1223-x.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • North, G. R., T. L. Bell, R. F. Cahalan, and F. J. Moeng, 1982: Sampling errors in the estimation of empirical orthogonal functions. Mon. Wea. Rev., 110, 699706, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1982)110<0699:SEITEO>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Patricola, C. M., S. J. Camargo, P. J. Klotzbach, R. Saravanan, and P. Chang, 2018: The influence of ENSO flavors on western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity. J. Climate, 31, 53955416, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0678.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Peduzzi, P., B. Chatenou, H. Dao, A. De Bono, C. Herold, J. Kossin, F. Mouton, and O. Nordbeck, 2012: Global trends in tropical cyclone risk. Nat. Climate Change, 2, 289294, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1410.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Saji, N. H., B. N. Goswami, P. N. Vinayachandran, and T. Yamagata, 1999: A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean. Nature, 401, 360363, https://doi.org/10.1038/43854.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Song, J., P. J. Klotzbach, N. Wei, and Y. Duan, 2022: Modulation of western North Pacific tropical cyclone formation by central Pacific El Niño–Southern Oscillation on decadal and interannual timescales. Int. J. Climatol., 43, 426437, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7777.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Song, K., J. Zhao, R. Zhan, L. Tao, and L. Chen, 2022: Confidence and uncertainty in simulating tropical cyclone long-term variability using the CMIP6-HighResMIP. J. Climate, 35, 64316451, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0875.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Studholme, J., A. V. Fedorov, S. K. Gulev, K. Emanuel, and K. Hodges, 2022: Poleward expansion of tropical cyclone latitudes in warming climates. Nat. Geosci., 15, 1428, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-021-00859-1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Takahashi, C., M. Watanabe, and M. Mori, 2017: Significant aerosol influence on the recent decadal decrease in tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific. Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 94969504, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL075369.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Takahashi, K., A. Montecinos, K. Goubanova, and B. Dewitte, 2011: ENSO regimes: Reinterpreting the canonical and Modoki El Niño. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L10704, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL047364.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Tang, B., and K. Emanuel, 2012: A ventilation index for tropical cyclones. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 19011912, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00165.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Tao, L., L. Wu, Y. Wang, and J. Yang, 2012: Influence of tropical Indian Ocean warming and ENSO on tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 90, 127144, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2012-107.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wang, B., and J. C. L. Chan, 2002: How strong ENSO events affect tropical storm activity over the western North Pacific. J. Climate, 15, 16431658, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<1643:HSEEAT>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wang, B., B. Xiang, and J.-Y. Lee, 2013: Subtropical high predictability establishes a promising way for monsoon and tropical storm predictions. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 110, 27182722, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1214626110.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wang, C., and B. Wang, 2019: Tropical cyclone predictability shaped by western Pacific subtropical high: Integration of trans-basin sea surface temperature effects. Climate Dyn., 53, 26972714, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04651-1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wang, H., and C. Wang, 2022: What caused the increase of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific during the period of 2011–2020? Climate Dyn., 60, 165177, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06299-w.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Webster, P. J., A. M. Moore, J. P. Loschnigg, and R. R. Leben, 1999: Coupled ocean–atmosphere dynamics in the Indian Ocean during 1997–98. Nature, 401, 356360, https://doi.org/10.1038/43848.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Woodruff, J. D., J. L. Irish, and S. J. Camargo, 2013: Coastal flooding by tropical cyclones and sea level rise. Nature, 504, 4452, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12855.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wu, L., H. Zhang, J.-M. Chen, and T. Feng, 2018: Impact of two types of El Niño on tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific: Sensitivity to location and intensity of Pacific warming. J. Climate, 31, 17251742, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0298.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wu, R., Y. Yang, and X. Cao, 2019: Respective and combined impacts of regional SST anomalies on tropical cyclogenesis in different sectors of the western North Pacific. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 124, 89178934, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD030736.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Xie, S.-P., K. Hu, J. Hafner, H. Tokinaga, Y. Du, G. Huang, and T. Sampe, 2009: Indian Ocean capacitor effect on Indo-western Pacific climate during the summer following El Niño. J. Climate, 22, 730747, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2544.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Xie, S.-P., Y. Kosaka, Y. Du, K. Hu, J. S. Chowdary, and G. Huang, 2016: Indo-western Pacific Ocean capacitor and coherent climate anomalies in post-ENSO summer: A review. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 33, 411432, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-015-5192-6.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Yan, Q., R. Korty, and Z. Zhang, 2015: Tropical cyclone genesis factors in a simulation of the last two millennia: Results from the Community Earth System Model. J. Climate, 28, 71827202, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0054.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Yan, Q., T. Wei, R. L. Korty, J. P. Kossin, Z. Zhang, and H. Wang, 2016: Enhanced intensity of global tropical cyclones during the mid-Pliocene warm period. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 113, 12 96312 967, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1608950113.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Yoshida, K., M. Sugi, R. Mizuta, H. Murakami, and M. Ishii, 2017: Future changes in tropical cyclone activity in high-resolution large-ensemble simulations. Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 99109917, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL075058.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Yu, J., T. Li, Z. Tan, and Z. Zhu, 2016: Effects of tropical North Atlantic SST on tropical cyclone genesis in the western North Pacific. Climate Dyn., 46, 865877, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2618-x.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zhan, R., Y. Wang, and X. Lei, 2011: Contributions of ENSO and east Indian Ocean SSTA to the interannual variability of northwest Pacific tropical cyclone frequency. J. Climate, 24, 509521, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3808.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zhan, R., Y. Wang, and M. Wen, 2013: The SST gradient between the southwestern Pacific and the western Pacific warm pool: A new factor controlling the northwestern Pacific tropical cyclone genesis frequency. J. Climate, 26, 24082415, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00798.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zhan, R., Y. Wang, and J. Zhao, 2019: Contributions of SST anomalies in the Indo-Pacific Ocean to the interannual variability of tropical cyclone genesis frequency over the western North Pacific. J. Climate, 32, 33573372, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0439.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zhang, Q., L. Wu, and Q. Liu, 2009: Tropical cyclone damages in China 1983–2006. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 90, 489496, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008BAMS2631.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zhang, W., G. A. Vecchi, H. Murakami, G. Villarini, and L. Jia, 2016: The Pacific meridional mode and the occurrence of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific. J. Climate, 29, 381398, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0282.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zhang, W., G. A. Vecchi, G. Villarini, H. Murakami, A. Rosati, X. Yang, L. Jia, and F. Zeng, 2017: Modulation of western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity by the Atlantic meridional mode. Climate Dyn., 48, 631647, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3099-2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zhang, W., G. A. Vecchi, H. Murakami, G. Villarini, T. L. Delworth, X. Yang, and L. Jia, 2018: Dominant role of Atlantic multidecadal oscillation in the recent decadal changes in western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity. Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 354362, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076397.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zhao, H., and C. Wang, 2019: On the relationship between ENSO and tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific during the boreal summer. Climate Dyn., 52, 275288, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4136-0.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zhao, J., R. Zhan, Y. Wang, and H. Xu, 2018: Contribution of interdecadal Pacific oscillation to the recent abrupt decrease in tropical cyclone genesis frequency over the western North Pacific since 1998. J. Climate, 31, 82118224, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0202.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zhao, J., R. Zhan, Y. Wang, L. Jiang, and X. Huang, 2022: A multiscale-model based near-term prediction of tropical cyclone genesis frequency in the Northern Hemisphere. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 127, e2022JD037267, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD037267.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zhao, M., and I. M. Held, 2012: TC-permitting GCM simulations of hurricane frequency response to sea surface temperature anomalies projected for the late twenty-first century. J. Climate, 25, 29953009, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00313.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 317 317 33
Full Text Views 135 135 3
PDF Downloads 172 172 8