Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

Climate Projection of Tropical Cyclone Lifetime in the Western North Pacific Basin

The-Anh Vu Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Indiana University Bloomington, Bloomington, Indiana

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Chanh Kieu Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Indiana University Bloomington, Bloomington, Indiana

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https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8947-8534
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Scott M. Robeson Department of Geography, Indiana University Bloomington, Bloomington, Indiana

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Paul Staten Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Indiana University Bloomington, Bloomington, Indiana

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Ben Kravitz Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Indiana University Bloomington, Bloomington, Indiana
Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington

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Online Publication:
06 Dec 2024
Print Publication:
01 Jan 2025
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0131.1
Page(s):
181–201
Restricted access

Abstract

In this study, the potential changes in tropical cyclone (TC) lifetime in the western North Pacific basin are examined for different future climates. Using homogeneous 9-km-resolution dynamical downscaling with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, we show that TC-averaged lifetime displays insignificant change under both low and high greenhouse gas concentration scenarios. However, more noticeable changes in the tails of TC lifetime statistics are captured in our downscaling simulations, with more frequent long-lived TCs (lifetime of 8–11 days) and less short-lived TCs (lifetime of 3–5 days). Unlike present-day simulations, it is found that the correlation between TC lifetime and the Niño index is relatively weak and insignificant in all future downscaling simulations, thus offering little explanation for these changes in TC lifetime statistics based on El Niño–Southern Oscillation. More detailed analyses of TC track distribution in the western North Pacific basin reveal, nevertheless, a noticeable shift of TC track patterns toward the end of the twenty-first century. Such a change in TC track climatology results in an overall longer duration of TCs over the open ocean, which is consistent across future scenarios and periods examined in this study. This shift in the TC track pattern is ultimately linked to changes in the western North Pacific subtropical high, which retreats to the south during July and to the east during August–September. The results obtained in this study provide new insights into how large-scale circulations can affect TC lifetime in the western North Pacific basin in warmer climates.

Significance Statement

Using high-resolution dynamical downscaling with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model under low- and high-emission scenarios, this study shows that the basin-averaged tropical cyclone (TC) lifetime in the western North Pacific (WNP) basin has no noticeable change under both warmer climate scenarios, despite an overall increase in TC maximum intensity. However, the tails of the TC lifetime distribution display significant changes, with more long-lived (6–20 days) TCs but less short-lived (3–5 days) TCs in the future. These changes in TC lifetime statistics are caused by the shift of the North Pacific subtropical high, which alters large-scale steering flows and TC track patterns. These results help explain why previous studies on TC lifetime projections have been inconclusive in the WNP basin and provide new insights into how large-scale circulations can modulate TC lifetime in a warmer climate.

© 2024 American Meteorological Society. This published article is licensed under the terms of the default AMS reuse license. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Chanh Kieu, ckieu@iu.edu

Abstract

In this study, the potential changes in tropical cyclone (TC) lifetime in the western North Pacific basin are examined for different future climates. Using homogeneous 9-km-resolution dynamical downscaling with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, we show that TC-averaged lifetime displays insignificant change under both low and high greenhouse gas concentration scenarios. However, more noticeable changes in the tails of TC lifetime statistics are captured in our downscaling simulations, with more frequent long-lived TCs (lifetime of 8–11 days) and less short-lived TCs (lifetime of 3–5 days). Unlike present-day simulations, it is found that the correlation between TC lifetime and the Niño index is relatively weak and insignificant in all future downscaling simulations, thus offering little explanation for these changes in TC lifetime statistics based on El Niño–Southern Oscillation. More detailed analyses of TC track distribution in the western North Pacific basin reveal, nevertheless, a noticeable shift of TC track patterns toward the end of the twenty-first century. Such a change in TC track climatology results in an overall longer duration of TCs over the open ocean, which is consistent across future scenarios and periods examined in this study. This shift in the TC track pattern is ultimately linked to changes in the western North Pacific subtropical high, which retreats to the south during July and to the east during August–September. The results obtained in this study provide new insights into how large-scale circulations can affect TC lifetime in the western North Pacific basin in warmer climates.

Significance Statement

Using high-resolution dynamical downscaling with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model under low- and high-emission scenarios, this study shows that the basin-averaged tropical cyclone (TC) lifetime in the western North Pacific (WNP) basin has no noticeable change under both warmer climate scenarios, despite an overall increase in TC maximum intensity. However, the tails of the TC lifetime distribution display significant changes, with more long-lived (6–20 days) TCs but less short-lived (3–5 days) TCs in the future. These changes in TC lifetime statistics are caused by the shift of the North Pacific subtropical high, which alters large-scale steering flows and TC track patterns. These results help explain why previous studies on TC lifetime projections have been inconclusive in the WNP basin and provide new insights into how large-scale circulations can modulate TC lifetime in a warmer climate.

© 2024 American Meteorological Society. This published article is licensed under the terms of the default AMS reuse license. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Chanh Kieu, ckieu@iu.edu
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