Abstract
Western and central equatorial Africa—the Congo basin region—is one of the most convectively active regions on the planet. It supports a large, diverse tropical forest and sequesters carbon. Despite its importance, the region is understudied and poorly observed. Seasonality in the Congo basin region is defined by variations in precipitation, not temperature. The equinoctial seasons produce the highest rainfall rates. Summers are also wet, while winters are dry. A number of studies have analyzed precipitation trends in observations, but a clear signal has not emerged. GCMs do not represent the regional climate with high accuracy, and their projections disagree. Analyses of the forest health, however, document a decline. Here, convective-permitting model simulations with a 3-km resolution are used to predict greenhouse gas–forced changes in the climate of the Congo basin. Implications of the simulated changes for the health of the Congolese rainforest are evaluated. Simulated surface temperatures in the Congo basin region increase by 4.0–5.4 K by the end of the century, depending on region and season. Increases in atmospheric water vapor and changes in clouds provide important feedbacks to the radiative forcing. No statistically significant changes in regional-scale precipitation occur, but convective storms intensify locally. Since estimates based on optimal temperatures for photosynthesis suggest 4-K warming causes a decline in tropical forests, these results suggest that temperature increases pose a greater threat to the health of the Congolese rainforest than precipitation changes in the twenty-first century.
© 2024 American Meteorological Society. This published article is licensed under the terms of the default AMS reuse license. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).
