Editorial Type:
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Article Type:
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Distinct Effect of the Warming Trend on Extreme Mei-Yu Rainfall in June and July over East Asia: Perspectives from Observation and Simulation

An-Yi Huang Department of Earth and Life Science, University of Taipei, Taipei, Taiwan
College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon

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https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2872-2294
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Chi-Cherng Hong Department of Earth and Life Science, University of Taipei, Taipei, Taiwan

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https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9732-249X
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Chao-An Chen National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction, New Taipei, Taiwan

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Huang-Hsiung Hsu Anthropogenic Climate Change Center, Research Center for Environmental Changes, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan

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Wan-Ling Tseng International Degree Program in Climate Change and Sustainable Development, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan

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Pei-Chun Hsu Academy of Circular Economy, National Chung Hsing University, Taichung, Taiwan

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Min-Hui Lo Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan

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Jun Chiang Department of Earth and Life Science, University of Taipei, Taipei, Taiwan

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Online Publication:
10 Jan 2025
Print Publication:
01 Feb 2025
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0339.1
Page(s):
689–700
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Abstract

The record mei-yu rainfall occurred in the Yangtze–Huai River valley (YHRV) and Japan regions in the early summer (June–July) of 2020 and devastated these regions. Whereas several studies had been devoted to the physical processes behind this climate extreme, the impact of the upward trend in the ocean and atmosphere was less investigated. In this study, the potential effect of the linear trend on the mei-yu rainfall extreme was assessed by comparing the 2020 event with a 1998 extreme event. The distinction between June and July was the focus. In June, a significant increasing rainfall trend, accompanied by an enhanced low-level southwesterly, was identified over south China. The linear trend of precipitation also contributed substantially to the total mei-yu rainfall in 2020, which was not observed in 1998. The moisture flux budget indicates that the climatological moisture transport by the linear trend of southwesterly contributes substantially to the extreme rainfall. In contrast to June, the mei-yu rainfall in July over YHRV, accompanied by a low-level easterly trend, showed a decreasing trend. Consequently, the linear trend does not contribute to the extreme rainfall. The numerical experiments, consistent with observations, indicated that the sea surface temperature (SST) warming trend contributed to the extreme mei-yu rainfall in June. This effect was not observed in July.

© 2025 American Meteorological Society. This published article is licensed under the terms of the default AMS reuse license. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Chi-Cherng Hong, cchong@utaipei.edu.tw

Abstract

The record mei-yu rainfall occurred in the Yangtze–Huai River valley (YHRV) and Japan regions in the early summer (June–July) of 2020 and devastated these regions. Whereas several studies had been devoted to the physical processes behind this climate extreme, the impact of the upward trend in the ocean and atmosphere was less investigated. In this study, the potential effect of the linear trend on the mei-yu rainfall extreme was assessed by comparing the 2020 event with a 1998 extreme event. The distinction between June and July was the focus. In June, a significant increasing rainfall trend, accompanied by an enhanced low-level southwesterly, was identified over south China. The linear trend of precipitation also contributed substantially to the total mei-yu rainfall in 2020, which was not observed in 1998. The moisture flux budget indicates that the climatological moisture transport by the linear trend of southwesterly contributes substantially to the extreme rainfall. In contrast to June, the mei-yu rainfall in July over YHRV, accompanied by a low-level easterly trend, showed a decreasing trend. Consequently, the linear trend does not contribute to the extreme rainfall. The numerical experiments, consistent with observations, indicated that the sea surface temperature (SST) warming trend contributed to the extreme mei-yu rainfall in June. This effect was not observed in July.

© 2025 American Meteorological Society. This published article is licensed under the terms of the default AMS reuse license. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Chi-Cherng Hong, cchong@utaipei.edu.tw
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