Long-Term Variations of Western Sahelian Monsoon Rainfall and Intense U.S. Landfalling Hurricanes

Christopher W. Landsea Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado

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William M. Gray Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado

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Paul W. Mielke Jr. Department of Statistics, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado

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Kenneth J. Berry Department of Statistics, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado

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Abstract

Western Sahelian rainfall during the primary rainy season of June through September is shown to he significantly associated with concurrent intense U.S. landfalling hurricanes during the last 92 years. The meet intense hurricanes (i.e., Saffir–Simpson Scale Category 3, 4, or 5) have an especially strong relationship with Sahelian rainfall, whereas weaker hurricanes show little or no association. The hurricane-Sahelian rainfall association is most evident along the U.S. East Coast but is negligible in the U.S. Gulf Coast region.

Abstract

Western Sahelian rainfall during the primary rainy season of June through September is shown to he significantly associated with concurrent intense U.S. landfalling hurricanes during the last 92 years. The meet intense hurricanes (i.e., Saffir–Simpson Scale Category 3, 4, or 5) have an especially strong relationship with Sahelian rainfall, whereas weaker hurricanes show little or no association. The hurricane-Sahelian rainfall association is most evident along the U.S. East Coast but is negligible in the U.S. Gulf Coast region.

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