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Low-Frequency Anomalies in the NMC MRF Model and Reality

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  • 1 Climate Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Washington, D.C.
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Abstract

A low-resolution version of the National Meteorological Center's global spectral model was used to generate a 10-year set of simulated daily meteorological data. Wintertime low-frequency large-amplitude anomalies were examined and compared with those observed in the real atmosphere. The geographical distributions of the mean and variance of model and real atmosphere show some resemblance. However, careful comparisons reveal distinct regions where short-term climate anomalies prefer to develop. The model's low-frequency anomalies (LFAS) over the North Pacific (North Atlantic) tend to occur about 1500 miles east (southeast) of those observed, locating themselves much closer to the western continents. Because of the Displacement of the model's LFA centers, their associated circulation patterns deviate substantially from those observed.

The frequency distributions of the LFAs for both the model and reality display large skewness. The positive and negative large LFAs were, therefore, examined separately, and four-way intercomparisons were conducted between the model, the observed, the positive, and the negative LFAS. The separate analyses resulted in distinguishable circulation patterns between the positive and negative large LFAS, which cannot possibly be identified if a linear analysis tool, such as an empirical orthogonal function analysis, were used to extract the most dominant mode of the circulations. Despite pronounced misplacement of large LFAs of both polarities and a general underestimation of their magnitudes, the model dm have the capability of persisting its short-term climate anomaly at certain geographical locations. Over the North Pacific, the model's positive LFAs persist as long or longer than those found in reality, while its negative LFAs persist only one-fourth as long (10 versus 40 days).

The principal storm tracks and mean zonal wind at 250 mb (U250) were also examined to supplement the low-frequency anomaly investigation. Contrasting with observations, the model's U250s display considerable eastward extension and its storm tracks near the jet exit show substantial equatorward displacement over both the North Pacific and the North Atlantic oceans. These model characteristics are consistent with the behavior that the model's large LFAs also prefer to develop over the regions far east and southeast of those observed in the real atmosphere.

Abstract

A low-resolution version of the National Meteorological Center's global spectral model was used to generate a 10-year set of simulated daily meteorological data. Wintertime low-frequency large-amplitude anomalies were examined and compared with those observed in the real atmosphere. The geographical distributions of the mean and variance of model and real atmosphere show some resemblance. However, careful comparisons reveal distinct regions where short-term climate anomalies prefer to develop. The model's low-frequency anomalies (LFAS) over the North Pacific (North Atlantic) tend to occur about 1500 miles east (southeast) of those observed, locating themselves much closer to the western continents. Because of the Displacement of the model's LFA centers, their associated circulation patterns deviate substantially from those observed.

The frequency distributions of the LFAs for both the model and reality display large skewness. The positive and negative large LFAs were, therefore, examined separately, and four-way intercomparisons were conducted between the model, the observed, the positive, and the negative LFAS. The separate analyses resulted in distinguishable circulation patterns between the positive and negative large LFAS, which cannot possibly be identified if a linear analysis tool, such as an empirical orthogonal function analysis, were used to extract the most dominant mode of the circulations. Despite pronounced misplacement of large LFAs of both polarities and a general underestimation of their magnitudes, the model dm have the capability of persisting its short-term climate anomaly at certain geographical locations. Over the North Pacific, the model's positive LFAs persist as long or longer than those found in reality, while its negative LFAs persist only one-fourth as long (10 versus 40 days).

The principal storm tracks and mean zonal wind at 250 mb (U250) were also examined to supplement the low-frequency anomaly investigation. Contrasting with observations, the model's U250s display considerable eastward extension and its storm tracks near the jet exit show substantial equatorward displacement over both the North Pacific and the North Atlantic oceans. These model characteristics are consistent with the behavior that the model's large LFAs also prefer to develop over the regions far east and southeast of those observed in the real atmosphere.

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