• Barnes, E. A., and L. Polvani, 2013: Response of the midlatitude jets, and of their variability, to increased greenhouse gases in the CMIP5 models. J. Climate, 26, 71177135, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00536.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Barnes, E. A., and I. R. Simpson, 2017: Seasonal sensitivity of the Northern Hemisphere jet streams to Arctic temperatures on subseasonal time scales. J. Climate, 30, 10 11710 137, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0299.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Butler, A. H., D. W. J. Thompson, and R. Heikes, 2010: The steady-state atmospheric circulation response to climate change–like thermal forcings in a simple general circulation model. J. Climate, 23, 34743496, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3228.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Camargo, S. J., 2013: Global and regional aspects of tropical cyclone activity in the CMIP5 models. J. Climate, 26, 98809902, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00549.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Coumou, D., J. Lehmann, and J. Beckmann, 2015: The weakening summer circulation in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. Science, 348, 324327, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1261768.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Coumou, D., G. D. Capua, S. Vavrus, L. Wang, and S. Wang, 2018: The influence of Arctic amplification on mid-latitude summer circulation. Nat. Commun., 9, 2959, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-05256-8.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Daloz, A. Z., and S. J. Camargo, 2018: Is the poleward migration of tropical cyclone maximum intensity associated with a poleward migration of tropical cyclone genesis? Climate Dyn., 50, 705715, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3636-7.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Deser, C., R. Tomas, M. Alexander, and D. Lawrence, 2010: The seasonal atmospheric response to projected Arctic sea ice loss in the late twenty-first century. J. Climate, 23, 333351, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3053.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Emanuel, K., 2010: Tropical cyclone activity downscaled from NOAA-CIRES reanalysis. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 2, 19081958, https://doi.org/10.3894/JAMES.2010.2.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Francis, J. A., and S. Vavrus, 2012: Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L06801, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051000.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Francis, J. A., and S. Vavrus, 2015: Evidence for a wavier jet stream in response to rapid Arctic warming. Environ. Res. Lett., 10, 014005, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/1/014005.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Francis, J. A., W. Chan, D. J. Leathers, J. R. Miller, and D. E. Veron, 2009: Winter Northern Hemisphere weather patterns remember summer Arctic sea-ice extent. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L07503, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL037274.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • George, J. E., and W. M. Gray, 1976: Tropical cyclone motion and surrounding parameter relationships. J. Appl. Meteor., 15, 12521264, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1976)015<1252:TCMASP>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gilford, D. M., S. Solomon, and K. A. Emanuel, 2017: On the seasonal cycles of tropical cyclone potential intensity. J. Climate, 30, 60856096, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0827.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hall, R., R. Erdélyi, E. Hanna, J. M. Jones, and A. A. Scaife, 2015: Drivers of North Atlantic polar front jet stream variability. Int. J. Climatol., 35, 16971720, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4121.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • He, C., B. Wu, L. Zou, and T. Zhou, 2017: Responses of the summertime subtropical anticyclones to global warming. J. Climate, 30, 64656479, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0529.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Held, I. M., and B. J. Soden, 2006: Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming. J. Climate, 19, 56865699, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3990.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Klotzbach, P. J., S. G. Bowen, R. Pielke, Jr., and M. Bell, 2018: Continental U.S. hurricane landfall frequency and associated damage: Observations and future risks. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 99, 13591376, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0184.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kossin, J. P., 2018: A global slowdown of tropical-cyclone translation speed. Nature, 558, 104107, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0158-3.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kossin, J. P., 2019: Reply to: Moon, I.-J. et al.; Lanzante, J. R. Nature, 570, E16E22, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1224-1.

  • Kossin, J. P., S. J. Camargo, and M. Sitkowski, 2010: Climate modulation of North Atlantic hurricane tracks. J. Climate, 23, 30573076, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3497.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kossin, J. P., K. A. Emanuel, and G. A. Vecchi, 2014: The poleward migration of the location of tropical cyclone maximum intensity. Nature, 509, 349352, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature13278.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kossin, J. P., K. R. Knapp, T. L. Olander, and C. S. Velden, 2020: Global increase in major tropical cyclone exceedance probability over the past four decades. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 117, 11 97511 980, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1920849117.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lai, Y., and et al. , 2020: Greater flood risks in response to slowdown of tropical cyclones over the coast of China. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 117, 14 75114 755, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1918987117.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Landsea, C. W., 2005: Hurricanes and global warming. Nature, 438, E11E12, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature04477.

  • Landsea, C. W., 2007: Counting Atlantic tropical cyclones back to 1900. Eos, Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union, 88, 197202, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007EO180001.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Landsea, C. W., G. A. Vecchi, L. Bengtsson, and T. R. Knutson, 2010: Impact of duration thresholds on Atlantic tropical cyclone counts. J. Climate, 23, 25082519, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3034.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lanzante, J. R., 2019: Uncertainties in tropical-cyclone translation speed. Nature, 570, E6E15, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1223-2.

  • Li, T., M. Kwon, M. Zhao, J.-S. Kug, J.-J. Luo, and W. Yu, 2010: Global warming shifts Pacific tropical cyclone location. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L21804, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL045124.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Mann, M. E., S. Rahmstorf, K. Kornhuber, B. A. Steinman, S. K. Miller, and D. Coumou, 2017: Influence of anthropogenic climate change on planetary wave resonance and extreme weather events. Sci. Rep., 7, 45242, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep45242.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Mann, M. E., B. A. Steinman, D. J. Brouillette, and S. K. Miller, 2021: Multidecadal climate oscillations during the past millennium driven by volcanic forcing. Science, 371, 10141019, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abc5810.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • McGraw, M. C., and E. A. Barnes, 2016: Seasonal sensitivity of the eddy-driven jet to tropospheric heating in an idealized AGCM. J. Climate, 29, 52235240, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0723.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Moon, I.-J., S.-H. Kim, and J. C. L. Chan, 2019: Climate change and tropical cyclone trend. Nature, 570, E3E5, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1222-3.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Panetta, R. L., and I. M. Held, 1988: Baroclinic eddy fluxes in a one-dimensional model of quasi-geostrophic turbulence. J. Atmos. Sci., 45, 33543365, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1988)045<3354:BEFIAO>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Screen, J. A., and I. Simmonds, 2010: The central role of diminishing sea ice in recent Arctic temperature amplification. Nature, 464, 13341337, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature09051.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Sharmila, S., and K. J. E. Walsh, 2018: Recent poleward shift of tropical cyclone formation linked to Hadley cell expansion. Nat. Climate Change, 8, 730736, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0227-5.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Simpson, I. R., M. Blackburn, J. D. Haigh, and S. N. Sparrow, 2010: The impact of the state of the troposphere on the response to stratospheric heating in a simplified GCM. J. Climate, 23, 61666185, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3792.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Sobel, A. H., S. J. Camargo, T. M. Hall, C. Lee, M. K. Tippett, and A. A. Wing, 2016: Human influence on tropical cyclone intensity. Science, 353, 242246, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaf6574.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Tao, L., J. Zhao, and T. Li, 2015: Trend analysis of tropical intraseasonal oscillations in the summer and winter during 1982–2009. Int. J. Climatol., 35, 39693978, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4258.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Vallis, G. K., P. Zurita-Gotor, C. Cairns, and J. Kidston, 2015: Response of the large-scale structure of the atmosphere to global warming. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 141, 14791501, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2456.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Walsh, K. J., S. J. Camargo, T. R. Knutson, J. Kossin, T. C. Lee, H. Murakami, and C. Patricola, 2019: Tropical cyclones and climate change. Trop. Cyclone Res. Rev., 8, 240250, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr.2020.01.004.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Williams, G. P., 1979: Planetary circulations: 2. The Jovian quasi-geostrophic regime. J. Atmos. Sci., 36, 932969, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1979)036<0932:PCTJQG>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wu, L., and et al. , 2014: Simulations of the present and late-twenty-first-century western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity using a regional model. J. Climate, 27, 34053424, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00830.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Yamaguchi, M., J. C. L. Chan, I. J. Moon, K. Yoshida, and R. Mizuta, 2020: Global warming changes tropical cyclone translation speed. Nat. Commun., 11, 47, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-13902-y.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Yoo, C., S. Feldstein, and S. Lee, 2011: The impact of the Madden-Julian oscillation trend on the Arctic amplification of surface air temperature during the 1979–2008 boreal winter. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L24804, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL049881.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Yoshida, K., M. Sugi, R. Mizuta, H. Murakami, and M. Ishii, 2017: Future changes in tropical cyclone activity in high-resolution large-ensemble simulations. Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 99109917, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL075058.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zappa, G., F. Pithan, and T. G. Shepherd, 2018: Multi-model evidence for an atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea ice loss in the CMIP5 future projections. Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 10111019, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076096.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zhang, G., H. Murakami, T. R. Knutson, R. Mizuta, and K. Yoshida, 2020: Tropical cyclone motion in a changing climate. Sci. Adv., 6, eaaz7610, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aaz7610.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 144 144 71
Full Text Views 54 54 42
PDF Downloads 55 55 45

Impact of Seasonality in the North Atlantic Jet Stream and Storm Migration on the Seasonality of Hurricane Translation Speed Changes

View More View Less
  • 1 a Jiangsu Meteorological Observatory, Nanjing, China
  • | 2 b Space Science and Engineering Center, University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, Wisconsin
  • | 3 c NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Climate Science and Services Division, Madison, Wisconsin
  • | 4 d School of the Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China
© Get Permissions Rent on DeepDyve
Restricted access

Abstract

Tropical cyclone (TC) translation speed (TCTS) can affect the duration of TC-related disasters, which is critical to coastal and inland areas. The long-term variation of TCTS and its relationship to the variability of the midlatitude jet stream and storm migration is discussed here for storms near the North Atlantic coast during 1948–2019. Our results reveal the prominent seasonality in the long-term variation of TCTS, which can be largely explained by the seasonality in the covariations of the midlatitude jet stream and storm locations. Specifically, significant increases of TCTS occur in June and October during the past decades, which may result from the equatorward displacement of the jet stream and poleward migration of storm locations. Prominent slowdown of TCTS is found in August, which is related to the weakened jet strength and equatorward storm migration. In September, the effects of poleward displacement and weakening of the jet stream on TCTS are largely compensated by the poleward storm migration, and therefore no significant change in TCTS is observed. Meanwhile, the multidecadal variability of the Atlantic may contribute to the multidecadal variability of TCTS. Our findings emphasize the significance in taking a seasonality view in discussing the variability and trends of near-coast Atlantic TCTS under climate change.

© 2021 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Xi Guo, shirleyguoxi@163.com

Abstract

Tropical cyclone (TC) translation speed (TCTS) can affect the duration of TC-related disasters, which is critical to coastal and inland areas. The long-term variation of TCTS and its relationship to the variability of the midlatitude jet stream and storm migration is discussed here for storms near the North Atlantic coast during 1948–2019. Our results reveal the prominent seasonality in the long-term variation of TCTS, which can be largely explained by the seasonality in the covariations of the midlatitude jet stream and storm locations. Specifically, significant increases of TCTS occur in June and October during the past decades, which may result from the equatorward displacement of the jet stream and poleward migration of storm locations. Prominent slowdown of TCTS is found in August, which is related to the weakened jet strength and equatorward storm migration. In September, the effects of poleward displacement and weakening of the jet stream on TCTS are largely compensated by the poleward storm migration, and therefore no significant change in TCTS is observed. Meanwhile, the multidecadal variability of the Atlantic may contribute to the multidecadal variability of TCTS. Our findings emphasize the significance in taking a seasonality view in discussing the variability and trends of near-coast Atlantic TCTS under climate change.

© 2021 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Xi Guo, shirleyguoxi@163.com

Supplementary Materials

    • Supplemental Materials (PDF 361.56 KB)
Save