Land Use Feedback under Global Warming – A Transition from Radiative to Hydrological Feedback Regime

Arshdeep Singh Earth System Science Program, College of Forestry, Wildlife and Environment, Auburn University, Auburn, AL, USA
Department of Agronomy and Horticulture, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE, USA

Search for other papers by Arshdeep Singh in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Sanjiv Kumar Earth System Science Program, College of Forestry, Wildlife and Environment, Auburn University, Auburn, AL, USA

Search for other papers by Sanjiv Kumar in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Liang Chen Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE, USA

Search for other papers by Liang Chen in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Montasir Maruf Earth System Science Program, College of Forestry, Wildlife and Environment, Auburn University, Auburn, AL, USA

Search for other papers by Montasir Maruf in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Peter Lawrence National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA

Search for other papers by Peter Lawrence in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
, and
Min-Hui Lo Department of Atmospheric Science, National Taiwan University, Taiwan

Search for other papers by Min-Hui Lo in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
Restricted access

Abstract

This study examines the effects of land use (LU) change on regional climate, comparing historical and future scenarios using seven climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 6 – Land Use Model Intercomparison Project experiments. LU changes are evaluated relative to land use conditions during the pre-industrial climate. Using the Community Earth System Model version 2 Large Ensemble (CESM2-LE) experiment, we distinguish LU impacts from natural climate variability. We assess LU impact locally by comparing the impacts of climate change in neighboring areas with and without LU changes. Further, we conduct CESM2 experiments with and without LU changes to investigate LU-related climate processes.

A multi-model analysis reveals a shift in LU-induced climate impacts, from cooling in the past to warming in the future climate across mid-latitude regions. For instance, in North America, LU's effect on air temperature changes from −0.24±0.18°C historically to 0.62±0.27°C in the future during the boreal summer. The CESM2-LE shows a decrease in LU-driven cooling from −0.92±0.09°C in the past to −0.09±0.09°C in future boreal summers in North America.

A hydroclimatic perspective linking LU and climate feedback indicates LU changes causing soil moisture drying in the mid-latitude regions. This contrasts with hydrology-only views showing wetter soil conditions due to LU changes. Furthermore, global warming causes widespread drying of soil moisture across various regions. Mid-latitude regions shift from a historically wet regime to a water limited transitional regime in the future climate. This results in reduced evapotranspiration, weakening LU-driven cooling in future climate projections. A strong linear relationship exists between soil moisture and evaporative fraction in mid-latitudes.

© 2024 American Meteorological Society. This is an Author Accepted Manuscript distributed under the terms of the default AMS reuse license. For information regarding reuse and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

AS and SK contributed equally as the first authors.

Corresponding Author Sanjiv Kumar, Ph. D. College of Forestry, Wildlife, and Environment Auburn University Email: szk0139@auburn.edu

Abstract

This study examines the effects of land use (LU) change on regional climate, comparing historical and future scenarios using seven climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 6 – Land Use Model Intercomparison Project experiments. LU changes are evaluated relative to land use conditions during the pre-industrial climate. Using the Community Earth System Model version 2 Large Ensemble (CESM2-LE) experiment, we distinguish LU impacts from natural climate variability. We assess LU impact locally by comparing the impacts of climate change in neighboring areas with and without LU changes. Further, we conduct CESM2 experiments with and without LU changes to investigate LU-related climate processes.

A multi-model analysis reveals a shift in LU-induced climate impacts, from cooling in the past to warming in the future climate across mid-latitude regions. For instance, in North America, LU's effect on air temperature changes from −0.24±0.18°C historically to 0.62±0.27°C in the future during the boreal summer. The CESM2-LE shows a decrease in LU-driven cooling from −0.92±0.09°C in the past to −0.09±0.09°C in future boreal summers in North America.

A hydroclimatic perspective linking LU and climate feedback indicates LU changes causing soil moisture drying in the mid-latitude regions. This contrasts with hydrology-only views showing wetter soil conditions due to LU changes. Furthermore, global warming causes widespread drying of soil moisture across various regions. Mid-latitude regions shift from a historically wet regime to a water limited transitional regime in the future climate. This results in reduced evapotranspiration, weakening LU-driven cooling in future climate projections. A strong linear relationship exists between soil moisture and evaporative fraction in mid-latitudes.

© 2024 American Meteorological Society. This is an Author Accepted Manuscript distributed under the terms of the default AMS reuse license. For information regarding reuse and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

AS and SK contributed equally as the first authors.

Corresponding Author Sanjiv Kumar, Ph. D. College of Forestry, Wildlife, and Environment Auburn University Email: szk0139@auburn.edu
Save