• Alder, J. R., , S. W. Hostetler, , and D. Williams, 2013: An interactive web application for visualizing climate data. Eos, Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union, 94, 197198, doi:10.1002/2013EO220001.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Angeles, M. E., , J. E. Gonzalez, , D. J. Ericson III, , and J. L. Hernández, 2007: Predictions of change in the Caribbean region using global circulation models. Int. J. Climatol., 27, 555569, doi:10.1002/joc.1416.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ashfaq, M., , C. B. Skinner, , and N. S. Diffenbaugh, 2011: Influence of SST biases on future climate change projections. Climate Dyn., 36 (7–8), 13031319, doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0875-2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Batjes, N. H., 1987: CROPRISK: A computerized procedure to assess the agro-ecological suitability of land for rainfed annual crops. Ministry of Agriculture Rural Physical Planning Division Jamaica Soil Survey Unit Technical Soils Bulletin 7, 49 pp.

  • Batjes, N. H., 1994: Agro-climatic zoning and physical land evaluation in Jamaica. Soil Use Manage., 10, 914, doi:10.1111/j.1475-2743.1994.tb00450.x.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Biasutti, M., , A. H. Sobel, , S. J. Camargo, , and T. T. Creyts, 2012: Projected changes in the physical climate of the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean. Climatic Change, 112 (3–4), 819845, doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0254-y.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Campbell, D., , D. Barker, , and D. McGregor, 2011: Dealing with drought: Small farmers and environmental hazards in southern St. Elizabeth, Jamaica. Appl. Geogr., 31, 146158, doi:10.1016/j.apgeog.2010.03.007.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Campbell, J. D., , M. A. Taylor, , T. S. Stephenson, , R. A. Watson, , and F. S. White, 2011: Future climate of the Caribbean from a regional climate model. Int. J. Climatol., 31, 18661878, doi:10.1002/joc.2200.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Christensen, J. H., and et al. , 2007: Regional climate projections. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, S. Solomon et al, Eds., Cambridge University Press, 847–940.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Enfield, D. B., , A. M. Mestas-Nuñez, , and P. J. Trimble, 2001: The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its relation to rainfall and river flow in the continental U.S. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 20772080, doi:10.1029/2000GL012745.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • FAO, cited 2014: AQUASTAT database. [Available online at http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/main/index.stm.]

  • Gamble, D. W., , D. Campbell, , T. L. Allen, , D. Barker, , S. Curtis, , D. F. M. McGregor, , and J. Popke, 2010: Climate change, drought, and Jamaican agriculture: Local knowledge and the climate record. Ann. Assoc. Amer. Geogr., 100, 880893, doi:10.1080/00045608.2010.497122.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Godfray, H. C. J., and et al. , 2010: Food security: The challenge of feeding 9 billion people. Science, 327, 812818, doi:10.1126/science.1185383.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kendall, P., , and M. Petracco, 2009: The current state and future of Caribbean agriculture. J. Sustain. Agric., 33, 780797, doi:10.1080/10440040903221409.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Li, W., , L. Li, , R. Fu, , Y. Deng, , and H. Wang, 2011: Changes to the North Atlantic subtropical high and its role in the intensification of summer rainfall variability in the southeastern United States. J. Climate, 24, 14991506, doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3829.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • McCabe, G. J., , and D. M. Wolock, 1999: Future snowpack conditions in the western United States derived from general circulation model climate simulations. J. Amer. Water Resour. Assoc., 35, 14731484, doi:10.1111/j.1752-1688.1999.tb04231.x.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • McCabe, G. J., , and S. L. Markstrom, 2007: A monthly water-balance model driven by a graphical user interface. U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Rep. 2007-1088, 6 pp.

  • McElroy, J. L., , and K. de Albuquerque, 1990: Sustainable small-scale agriculture in small Caribbean islands. Soc. Nat. Resour., 3, 109129, doi:10.1080/08941929009380712.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Mimura, N., , L. Nurse, , R. F. McLean, , J. Agard, , L. Brigulio, , P. Lefale, , R. Payet, , and G. Sem, 2007: Small islands. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaption and Vulnerability, M. L. Parry et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 687–716.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Nurse, L. A., , and G. Sem, 2001: Small island states. Climate change 2001: The Scientific Basis, J. T. Houghton et al, Eds., Cambridge University Press, 843–875.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Perez, C. R., , and M. R. Jury, 2013: Spatial and temporal analysis of climate change in Hispañola. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 113 (1–2), 213224, doi:10.1007/s00704-012-0781-0.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Peterson, T. C., and et al. , 2002: Recent changes in climate extremes in the Caribbean region. J. Geophys. Res., 107, 4601, doi:10.1029/2002JD002251.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ropelewski, C. F., , J. E. Janowiak, , and M. S. Halpert, 1985: The analysis and display of real time surface climate data. Mon. Wea. Rev., 113, 11011106, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1985)113<1101:TAADOR>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ryu, J.-H., , and K. Hayhoe, 2014: Understanding the sources of Caribbean precipitation biases in CMIP3 and CMIP5 simulations. Climate Dyn., 42, 32333252, doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1801-1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Sealey, N., 1992: Caribbean World: A Complete Geography. Cambridge University Press, 256 pp.

  • Solomon, S., , D. Qin, , M. Manning, , Z. Chen, , M. Marquis, , K. B. Averyt, , M. Tignor, , and H. L. Miller, 2007: Summary for policymakers. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, S. Solomon et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 1–18.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Stephenson, N. L., 1998: Actual evapotranspiration and deficit: biologically meaningful correlates of vegetation distribution across spatial scales. J. Biogeogr., 25, 855870, doi:10.1046/j.1365-2699.1998.00233.x.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Stocker, T. F., and et al. , Eds., 2014: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis.Cambridge University Press, 1535 pp.

  • Taylor, M. A., , D. B. Enfield, , and A. A. Chen, 2002: Influence of the tropical Atlantic versus the tropical Pacific on Caribbean rainfall. J. Geophys. Res., 107, 3127, doi:10.1029/2001JC001097.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Taylor, M. A., , F. S. White, , T. S. Stephenson, , and J. D. Campbell, 2013: Why dry? Investigating the future evolution of the Caribbean low level jet to explain projected Caribbean drying. Int. J. Climatol., 33, 78479, doi:10.1002/joc.3461.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Thornthwaite, C. W., 1948: An approach toward a rational classification of climate. Geogr. Rev., 38, 5594, doi:10.2307/210739.

  • Trotman, A., , R. M. Gordon, , S. D. Hutchinson, , R. Singh, , and D. McRae-Smith, 2009: Policy responses to GEC impacts on food availability in the Caribbean community. Environ. Sci. Policy, 12, 529541, doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2009.02.001.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Vose, R. S., , R. L. Schmoyer, , P. M. Steurer, , T. C. Peterson, , R. Heim, , T. R. Karl, , and J. Eischeid, 1992: The Global Historical Climatology Network: Long-term monthly temperature, precipitation, sea level pressure, and station pressure data. Oak Ridge National Laboratory Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center Rep. ORNL/CDIAC-53, 324 pp. [Available online at http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/ndp041/ndp041.pdf.]

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Watts, D., 1995: Environmental degradation, the water resource and sustainable development in the eastern Caribbean. Caribb. Geogr., 6, 215.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wolock, D. M., , and G. J. McCabe, 1999: Effects of potential climatic change on annual runoff in the conterminous United States. J. Amer. Water Resour. Assoc., 35, 13411350, doi:10.1111/j.1752-1688.1999.tb04219.x.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 106 106 21
PDF Downloads 39 39 4

Sensitivity of Crop Water Need to 2071–95 Projected Temperature and Precipitation Changes in Jamaica

View More View Less
  • 1 Department of Geography, Planning, and Environment, East Carolina University, Greenville, North Carolina
  • | 2 Department of Geography and Geology, University of North Carolina at Wilmington, Wilmington, North Carolina
  • | 3 Department of Geography, Planning, and Environment, East Carolina University, Greenville, North Carolina
© Get Permissions Rent on DeepDyve
Restricted access

Abstract

This study uses empirical models to examine the potential impact of climate change, based on a range of 100-yr phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) projections, on crop water need in Jamaica. As expected, crop water need increases with rising temperature and decreasing precipitation, especially in May–July. Comparing the temperature and precipitation impacts on crop water need indicates that the 25th percentile of CMIP5 temperature change (moderate warming) yields a larger crop water deficit than the 75th percentile of CMIP5 precipitation change (wet winter and dry summer), but the 25th percentile of CMIP5 precipitation change (substantial drying) dominates the 75th percentile of CMIP5 temperature change (extreme warming). Over the annual cycle, the warming contributes to larger crop water deficits from November to April, while the drying has a greater influence from May to October. All experiments decrease crop suitability, with the largest impact from March to August.

Corresponding author address: Scott Curtis, Department of Geography, Planning, and Environment, East Carolina University, Brewster A232, Greenville, NC 27858. E-mail address: curtisw@ecu.edu; gambled@uncw.edu; popkee@ecu.edu

Abstract

This study uses empirical models to examine the potential impact of climate change, based on a range of 100-yr phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) projections, on crop water need in Jamaica. As expected, crop water need increases with rising temperature and decreasing precipitation, especially in May–July. Comparing the temperature and precipitation impacts on crop water need indicates that the 25th percentile of CMIP5 temperature change (moderate warming) yields a larger crop water deficit than the 75th percentile of CMIP5 precipitation change (wet winter and dry summer), but the 25th percentile of CMIP5 precipitation change (substantial drying) dominates the 75th percentile of CMIP5 temperature change (extreme warming). Over the annual cycle, the warming contributes to larger crop water deficits from November to April, while the drying has a greater influence from May to October. All experiments decrease crop suitability, with the largest impact from March to August.

Corresponding author address: Scott Curtis, Department of Geography, Planning, and Environment, East Carolina University, Brewster A232, Greenville, NC 27858. E-mail address: curtisw@ecu.edu; gambled@uncw.edu; popkee@ecu.edu
Save