Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

A Functional Response Metric for the Temperature Sensitivity of Tropical Ecosystems

Gretchen Keppel-Aleks Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan

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Samantha J. Basile Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan

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Forrest M. Hoffman Computational Earth Sciences Group, and Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, and Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, Tennessee

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Print Publication:
01 Apr 2018
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/EI-D-17-0017.1
Page(s):
1–20
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Abstract

Earth system models (ESMs) simulate a large spread in carbon cycle feedbacks to climate change, particularly in their prediction of cumulative changes in terrestrial carbon storage. Evaluating the performance of ESMs against observations and assessing the likelihood of long-term climate predictions are crucial for model development. Here, we assessed the use of atmospheric growth rate variations to evaluate the sensitivity of tropical ecosystem carbon fluxes to interannual temperature variations. We found that the temperature sensitivity of the observed growth rate depended on the time scales over which atmospheric observations were averaged. The temperature sensitivity of the growth rate during Northern Hemisphere winter is most directly related to the tropical carbon flux sensitivity since winter variations in Northern Hemisphere carbon fluxes are relatively small. This metric can be used to test the fidelity of interactions between the physical climate system and terrestrial ecosystems within ESMs, which is especially important since the short-term relationship between ecosystem fluxes and temperature stress may be related to the long-term feedbacks between ecosystems and climate. If the interannual temperature sensitivity is used to constrain long-term temperature responses, the inferred sensitivity may be biased by 20%, unless the seasonality of the relationship between the observed growth rate and tropical fluxes is taken into account. These results suggest that atmospheric data can be used directly to evaluate regional land fluxes from ESMs, but underscore that the interaction between the time scales for land surface processes and those for atmospheric processes must be considered.

© 2018 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Gretchen Keppel-Aleks, gkeppela@umich.edu

Abstract

Earth system models (ESMs) simulate a large spread in carbon cycle feedbacks to climate change, particularly in their prediction of cumulative changes in terrestrial carbon storage. Evaluating the performance of ESMs against observations and assessing the likelihood of long-term climate predictions are crucial for model development. Here, we assessed the use of atmospheric growth rate variations to evaluate the sensitivity of tropical ecosystem carbon fluxes to interannual temperature variations. We found that the temperature sensitivity of the observed growth rate depended on the time scales over which atmospheric observations were averaged. The temperature sensitivity of the growth rate during Northern Hemisphere winter is most directly related to the tropical carbon flux sensitivity since winter variations in Northern Hemisphere carbon fluxes are relatively small. This metric can be used to test the fidelity of interactions between the physical climate system and terrestrial ecosystems within ESMs, which is especially important since the short-term relationship between ecosystem fluxes and temperature stress may be related to the long-term feedbacks between ecosystems and climate. If the interannual temperature sensitivity is used to constrain long-term temperature responses, the inferred sensitivity may be biased by 20%, unless the seasonality of the relationship between the observed growth rate and tropical fluxes is taken into account. These results suggest that atmospheric data can be used directly to evaluate regional land fluxes from ESMs, but underscore that the interaction between the time scales for land surface processes and those for atmospheric processes must be considered.

© 2018 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Gretchen Keppel-Aleks, gkeppela@umich.edu
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