Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

Extreme Precipitation Events in the South-Central United States during May and June 2010: Historical Perspective, Role of ENSO, and Trends

R. W. Higgins Climate Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, Maryland

Search for other papers by R. W. Higgins in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
,
V. E. Kousky University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

Search for other papers by V. E. Kousky in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
, and
P. Xie Climate Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, Maryland

Search for other papers by P. Xie in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
Print Publication:
01 Oct 2011
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-10-05039.1
Page(s):
1056–1070
Restricted access

Abstract

An analysis of extreme daily precipitation events that occurred in the south-central United States during May and June 2010 is carried out using gridded station data and reanalysis products in use at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Various aspects of the daily extremes are examined from a climate perspective using a 62-yr (1948–2010) period of record, including their historical ranking, common circulation features, moisture plumes, and the possible influence of ENSO. The analysis also considers how the frequency and intensity of daily extremes is changing in the United States. Each of the 2010 flash flood events examined here was associated with historic daily rainfall totals. Several of the events had meteorological conditions in common at upper and lower levels of the atmosphere, and all of the events fit well into an existing classification scheme for heavy precipitation events associated with flash flooding. Each case exhibited characteristics of the “Maya Express” flood events that link tropical moisture plumes from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico to midlatitude flooding over the central United States. Consistent with recent assessment reports, it is shown that extreme daily precipitation events in the United States have increased in frequency during the most recent 30-yr period (1980–2009) when compared to the previous 30-yr period (1950–79), though the increases are relatively small during May and June.

Corresponding author address: Dr. R. W. Higgins, Climate Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Washington, DC 20233. E-mail: Wayne.Higgins@noaa.gov

Abstract

An analysis of extreme daily precipitation events that occurred in the south-central United States during May and June 2010 is carried out using gridded station data and reanalysis products in use at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Various aspects of the daily extremes are examined from a climate perspective using a 62-yr (1948–2010) period of record, including their historical ranking, common circulation features, moisture plumes, and the possible influence of ENSO. The analysis also considers how the frequency and intensity of daily extremes is changing in the United States. Each of the 2010 flash flood events examined here was associated with historic daily rainfall totals. Several of the events had meteorological conditions in common at upper and lower levels of the atmosphere, and all of the events fit well into an existing classification scheme for heavy precipitation events associated with flash flooding. Each case exhibited characteristics of the “Maya Express” flood events that link tropical moisture plumes from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico to midlatitude flooding over the central United States. Consistent with recent assessment reports, it is shown that extreme daily precipitation events in the United States have increased in frequency during the most recent 30-yr period (1980–2009) when compared to the previous 30-yr period (1950–79), though the increases are relatively small during May and June.

Corresponding author address: Dr. R. W. Higgins, Climate Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Washington, DC 20233. E-mail: Wayne.Higgins@noaa.gov
Save
Cover Journal of Hydrometeorology
Journal of Hydrometeorology

  • Brooks, H. E., and Stensrud D. J. , 2000: Climatology of heavy rain events in the United States from hourly precipitation observations. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 1194–1201.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Chen, M., Shi W. , Xie P. , Silva V. B. S. , Kousky V. E. , Higgins R. W. , and Janowiak J. E. , 2008: Assessing objective techniques for gauge-based analyses of global daily precipitation. J. Geophys. Res., 113, D04110, doi:10.1029/2007JD009132.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Dirmeyer, P. A., and Brubaker K. L. , 1999: Contrasting evaporative moisture sources during the drought of 1988 and the flood of 1993. J. Geophys. Res., 104, 19 383–19 397.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Dirmeyer, P. A., and Kinter J. L. III, 2009: The Maya Express—Late spring floods in the U.S. Midwest. Eos, Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union, 90, 101–102.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Higgins, R. W., Shi W. , Yarosh E. , and Joyce R. , 2000: Improved United States Precipitation Quality Control System and Analysis. NCEP/Climate Prediction Center Atlas 7, 40 pp. [Available online at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research_papers/ncep_cpc_atlas/7/index.html].

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Higgins, R. W., Silva V. , Larson J. , and Shi W. , 2007: Relationships between climate variability and fluctuations in daily precipitation over the United States. J. Climate, 20, 3561–3579.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Kalnay, E., and Coauthors, 1996: The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 437–471.

  • Karl, T. R., Melillo J. M. , and Peterson T. C. , Eds., 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 191 pp.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Kanamitsu, M., Ebisuzaki W. , Woollen J. , Yang S.-K. , Slingo J. J. , Fiorino M. , and Potter G. L. , 2002: NCEP–DOE AMIP-II Reanalysis (R-2). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 83, 1631–1643.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Kousky, V. E., and Higgins R. W. , 2007: An alert classifications system for monitoring and assessment of the ENSO cycle. Wea. Forecasting, 22, 353–371.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Maddox, R. A., Chappell C. F. , and Hoxit L. R. , 1979: Synoptic and meso-α scale aspects of flash flood events. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 60, 115–123.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Means, L. L., 1956: Some basic parameters associated with the flood rains at Chicago, October 9–12, 1954. Mon. Wea. Rev., 84, 253–260.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Nielsen-Gammon, J. W., Zhang F. , Odins A. M. , and Myoung B. , 2005: Extreme rainfall in Texas: Patterns and predictability. Phys. Geogr., 26, 340–364.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • NOAA/National Climatic Data Center, cited 2010a: State of the Climate: National Overview for June 2010. [Available online at http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/2010/6.]

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • NOAA/National Climatic Data Center, cited 2010b: State of the Climate: National Overview for May 2010. [Available online at http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/2010/5.]

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Solomon, S., Qin D. , Manning M. , Marquis M. , Averyt K. , Tignor M. M. B. , Miller H. L. Jr., and Chen Z. , Eds., 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Sciences Basis. Cambridge University Press, 996 pp.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Trenberth, K. E., Fasullo J. , and Smith L. , 2005: Trends and variability in column-integrated atmospheric water vapor. Climate Dyn., 24, 741–758.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 302 150 51
PDF Downloads 168 67 3