Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

Soil Moisture, Snow, and Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts in the United States

Sarith Mahanama Science Applications International Corporation, Beltsville, and Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland

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Ben Livneh Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington

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Randal Koster Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland

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Dennis Lettenmaier Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington

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Rolf Reichle Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland

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Print Publication:
01 Feb 2012
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-11-046.1
Page(s):
189–203
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Abstract

Land surface model experiments are used to quantify, for a number of U.S. river basins, the contributions (isolated and combined) of soil moisture and snowpack initialization to the skill of seasonal streamflow forecasts at multiple leads and for different start dates. Snow initialization has a major impact on skill during the spring melting season. Soil moisture initialization has a smaller but still statistically significant impact during this season, and in other seasons, its contribution to skill dominates. Realistic soil moisture initialization can contribute to skill at long leads (over 6 months) for certain basins and seasons. Skill levels in all seasons are found to be related to the ratio of initial total water storage (soil water plus snow) variance to the forecast period precipitation variance, allowing estimates of the potential for skill in areas outside the verification basins.

Corresponding author address: Sarith Mahanama, Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, Mail Stop 610.1, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771. E-mail: sarith.p.mahanama@nasa.gov

Abstract

Land surface model experiments are used to quantify, for a number of U.S. river basins, the contributions (isolated and combined) of soil moisture and snowpack initialization to the skill of seasonal streamflow forecasts at multiple leads and for different start dates. Snow initialization has a major impact on skill during the spring melting season. Soil moisture initialization has a smaller but still statistically significant impact during this season, and in other seasons, its contribution to skill dominates. Realistic soil moisture initialization can contribute to skill at long leads (over 6 months) for certain basins and seasons. Skill levels in all seasons are found to be related to the ratio of initial total water storage (soil water plus snow) variance to the forecast period precipitation variance, allowing estimates of the potential for skill in areas outside the verification basins.

Corresponding author address: Sarith Mahanama, Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, Mail Stop 610.1, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771. E-mail: sarith.p.mahanama@nasa.gov
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Journal of Hydrometeorology

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