Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

Meteorological Causes of the Secular Variations in Observed Extreme Precipitation Events for the Conterminous United States

Kenneth E. Kunkel * Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites North Carolina, North Carolina State University, Asheville, North Carolina
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, North Carolina
Illinois State Water Survey, Prairie Research Institute, University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign, Champaign, Illinois
Division of Atmospheric Sciences, Desert Research Institute, Reno, Nevada

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David R. Easterling National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, North Carolina

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David A. R. Kristovich Illinois State Water Survey, Prairie Research Institute, University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign, Champaign, Illinois

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Byron Gleason National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, North Carolina

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Leslie Stoecker Illinois State Water Survey, Prairie Research Institute, University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign, Champaign, Illinois

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Rebecca Smith Illinois State Water Survey, Prairie Research Institute, University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign, Champaign, Illinois

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Print Publication:
01 Jun 2012
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-11-0108.1
Page(s):
1131–1141
Restricted access

Abstract

Daily extreme precipitation events, exceeding a threshold for a 1-in-5-yr occurrence, were identified from a network of 935 Cooperative Observer stations for the period of 1908–2009. Each event was assigned a meteorological cause, categorized as extratropical cyclone near a front (FRT), extratropical cyclone near center of low (ETC), tropical cyclone (TC), mesoscale convective system (MCS), air mass (isolated) convection (AMC), North American monsoon (NAM), and upslope flow (USF). The percentage of events ascribed to each cause were 54% for FRT, 24% for ETC, 13% for TC, 5% for MCS, 3% for NAM, 1% for AMC, and 0.1% for USF. On a national scale, there are upward trends in events associated with fronts and tropical cyclones, but no trends for other meteorological causes. On a regional scale, statistically significant upward trends in the frontal category are found in five of the nine regions. For ETCs, there are statistically significant upward trends in the Northeast and east north central. For the NAM category, the trend in the West is upward. The central region has seen an upward trend in events caused by TCs.

Current affiliation: Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado.

Corresponding author address: Kenneth E. Kunkel, National Climatic Data Center, 151 Patton Avenue, Asheville, NC 28801. E-mail: ken.kunkel@noaa.gov

Abstract

Daily extreme precipitation events, exceeding a threshold for a 1-in-5-yr occurrence, were identified from a network of 935 Cooperative Observer stations for the period of 1908–2009. Each event was assigned a meteorological cause, categorized as extratropical cyclone near a front (FRT), extratropical cyclone near center of low (ETC), tropical cyclone (TC), mesoscale convective system (MCS), air mass (isolated) convection (AMC), North American monsoon (NAM), and upslope flow (USF). The percentage of events ascribed to each cause were 54% for FRT, 24% for ETC, 13% for TC, 5% for MCS, 3% for NAM, 1% for AMC, and 0.1% for USF. On a national scale, there are upward trends in events associated with fronts and tropical cyclones, but no trends for other meteorological causes. On a regional scale, statistically significant upward trends in the frontal category are found in five of the nine regions. For ETCs, there are statistically significant upward trends in the Northeast and east north central. For the NAM category, the trend in the West is upward. The central region has seen an upward trend in events caused by TCs.

Current affiliation: Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado.

Corresponding author address: Kenneth E. Kunkel, National Climatic Data Center, 151 Patton Avenue, Asheville, NC 28801. E-mail: ken.kunkel@noaa.gov
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Journal of Hydrometeorology

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