Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

Predicting the Net Basin Supply to the Great Lakes with a Hydrometeorological Model

Daniel Deacu Recherche en prévision numérique environnementale, Meteorological Research Division, Environment Canada, Dorval, Quebec, Canada

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Vincent Fortin Recherche en prévision numérique environnementale, Meteorological Research Division, Environment Canada, Dorval, Quebec, Canada

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Erika Klyszejko Water Survey of Canada, Environment Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada

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Christopher Spence Aquatic Ecosystem Impacts Research Division, Environment Canada, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada

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Peter D. Blanken Department of Geography, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado

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Print Publication:
01 Dec 2012
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-11-0151.1
Page(s):
1739–1759
Restricted access

Abstract

The paper presents the incremental improvement of the prediction of the Great Lakes net basin supply (NBS) with the hydrometeorological model Modélisation Environmentale–Surface et Hydrologie (MESH) by increasing the accuracy of the simulated NBS components (overlake precipitation, lake evaporation, and runoff into the lake). This was achieved through a series of experiments with MESH and its parent numerical weather prediction model [the Canadian Global Environmental Multiscale model in its regional configuration (GEM Regional)]. With forcing extracted from operational GEM Regional forecasts, MESH underestimated the NBS in fall and winter. The underestimation increased when the GEM precipitation was replaced with its corrected version provided by the Canadian Precipitation Analysis. This pointed to overestimated lake evaporation and prompted the revision of the parameterization of the surface turbulent fluxes over water used both in MESH and GEM. The revised parameterization was validated against turbulent fluxes measured at a point on Lake Superior. Its use in MESH reduced the lake evaporation and largely corrected the NBS underestimation. However, the Lake Superior NBS became overestimated, signaling an inconsistency between the reduced lake evaporation and the prescribed precipitation. To remove the inconsistency, a new forcing dataset (including precipitation) was generated with the GEM model using the revised flux parameterization. A major NBS simulation improvement was obtained with the new atmospheric forcing reflecting the atmospheric response to the modified surface fluxes over the lakes. Additional improvements resulted by correcting the runoff with a modified snowmelt rate and by insertion of observed streamflows. The study shows that accurate lake evaporation simulation is crucial for accurate NBS prediction.

Corresponding author address: Vincent Fortin, Meteorological Research Division, Environment Canada, 2121 Trans-Canada Highway, 5th floor, Dorval QC H9P 1J3, Canada. E-mail: vincent.fortin@ec.gc.ca

Abstract

The paper presents the incremental improvement of the prediction of the Great Lakes net basin supply (NBS) with the hydrometeorological model Modélisation Environmentale–Surface et Hydrologie (MESH) by increasing the accuracy of the simulated NBS components (overlake precipitation, lake evaporation, and runoff into the lake). This was achieved through a series of experiments with MESH and its parent numerical weather prediction model [the Canadian Global Environmental Multiscale model in its regional configuration (GEM Regional)]. With forcing extracted from operational GEM Regional forecasts, MESH underestimated the NBS in fall and winter. The underestimation increased when the GEM precipitation was replaced with its corrected version provided by the Canadian Precipitation Analysis. This pointed to overestimated lake evaporation and prompted the revision of the parameterization of the surface turbulent fluxes over water used both in MESH and GEM. The revised parameterization was validated against turbulent fluxes measured at a point on Lake Superior. Its use in MESH reduced the lake evaporation and largely corrected the NBS underestimation. However, the Lake Superior NBS became overestimated, signaling an inconsistency between the reduced lake evaporation and the prescribed precipitation. To remove the inconsistency, a new forcing dataset (including precipitation) was generated with the GEM model using the revised flux parameterization. A major NBS simulation improvement was obtained with the new atmospheric forcing reflecting the atmospheric response to the modified surface fluxes over the lakes. Additional improvements resulted by correcting the runoff with a modified snowmelt rate and by insertion of observed streamflows. The study shows that accurate lake evaporation simulation is crucial for accurate NBS prediction.

Corresponding author address: Vincent Fortin, Meteorological Research Division, Environment Canada, 2121 Trans-Canada Highway, 5th floor, Dorval QC H9P 1J3, Canada. E-mail: vincent.fortin@ec.gc.ca
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