• Bélair, S., , Crevier L.-P. , , Mailhot J. , , Bilodeau B. , , and Delage Y. , 2003a: Operational implementation of the ISBA land surface scheme in the Canadian regional weather forecast model. Part I: Warm season results. J. Hydrometeor., 4, 352370.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bélair, S., , Brown R. , , Mailhot J. , , Bilodeau B. , , and Crevier L.-P. , 2003b: Operational implementation of the ISBA land surface scheme in the Canadian regional weather forecast model. Part II: Cold season results. J. Hydrometeor., 4, 371386.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Betts, A. K., 2009: Land-surface-atmosphere coupling in observations and models. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 1, 1–18.

  • Blanken, P. D., , Spence C. , , Hedstrom N. , , and Lenters J. D. , 2011: Evaporation from Lake Superior: 1. Physical controls and processes. J. Great Lakes Res., 37, 707716.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bruxer, J., 2010: Uncertainty analysis of Lake Erie net basin supplies as computed using the residual method. M.S. thesis, Dept. of Civil Engineering, McMaster University, 238 pp. [Available online at http://digitalcommons.mcmaster.ca/opendissertations/4987.]

  • Carrera, M. L., , Bélair S. , , Fortin V. , , Bilodeau B. , , Charpentier D. , , and Doré I. , 2010: Evaluation of snowpack simulations over the Canadian Rockies with an experimental hydrometeorological modeling system. J. Hydrometeor., 11, 11231140.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Charnock, H., 1955: Wind stress on a water surface. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 81, 639640.

  • Decharme, B., , and Douville H. , 2006: Introduction of a sub-grid hydrology in the ISBA land surface model. Climate Dyn., 26, 6578.

  • DeCosmo, J., , Katsaros K. B. , , Smith S. D. , , Anderson R. J. , , Oost W. A. , , Bumke K. , , and Chadwick H. , 1996: Air–sea exchange of water vapor and sensible heat: The humidity exchange over the sea (HEXOS) results. J. Geophys. Res., 101 (C5), 12 00112 016.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Douville, H., , Royer J.-F. , , and Mahfouf J. F. , 1995: A new snow parameterization for the Météo-France climate model. Climate Dyn., 12, 2135.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dutra, E., , Balsamo G. , , Viterbo P. , , Miranda P. M. A. , , Beljaars A. , , Schär C. , , and Elder K. , 2010: An improved snow scheme for the ECMWF land surface model: Description and offline validation. J. Hydrometeor., 11, 899916.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • ECMWF, 2011: Part IV: Physical processes. IFS Doc. Cy33r1, 162 pp. [Available online at http://www.ecmwf.int/research/ifsdocs/CY33r1/PHYSICS/IFSPart4.pdf.]

  • Fairall, C. W., , Bradley E. F. , , Hare J. E. , , Grachev A. A. , , and Edson J. B. , 2003: Bulk parameterization of air–sea fluxes: Updates and verification for the COARE algorithm. J. Climate, 16, 571591.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • GLERL, cited 2011: GLERL Great Lakes monthly hydrologic data (1860-2008). [Available online at http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/data/arc/hydro/mnth-hydro.html.]

  • Hock, R., 2003: Temperature index melt modelling in mountain areas. J. Hydrol., 282, 104115.

  • IUGLS, 2012: Lake Superior regulation: Addressing uncertainty in upper Great Lakes water levels. Final Rep. to the International Joint Commission, 214 pp. [Available online at http://www.ijc.org/iuglsreport/wp-content/report-pdfs/Lake_Superior_Regulation_Full_Report.pdf.]

  • Kouwen, N., 2010: WATFLOOD/WATROUTE hydrological model routing and flow forecasting system. Department of Civil Engineering, University of Waterloo, 247 pp.

  • Kristovich, D. A. R., , and Steve R. A. , 1995: A satellite study of cloud-band frequencies over the Great Lakes. J. Appl. Meteor., 34, 20832090.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Laird, N. F., , and Kristovich D. A. R. , 2002: Variations of sensible and latent heat fluxes from a Great Lakes buoy and associated synoptic weather patterns. J. Hydrometeor., 3, 312.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • LeMone, M. A., 1973: The structure and dynamics of horizontal roll vortices in the planetary boundary layer. J. Atmos. Sci., 30, 10771091.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Li, X., , Zhong S. , , Bian X. , , Heilman W. E. , , Luo Y. , , and Dong W. , 2010: Hydroclimate and variability in the Great Lakes region as derived from the North American Regional Reanalysis. J. Geophys. Res.,115, D12104, doi:10.1029/2009JD012756.

  • Liang, X., , Lettenmaier D. P. , , Wood E. F. , , and Burges S. J. , 1994: A simple hydrologically based model of land surface water and energy fluxes for general circulation models. J. Geophys. Res.,99 (D7), 14 415–14 428.

  • Liu, A. Q., , and Moore G. W. K. , 2004: Lake-effect snowstorms over Southern Ontario, Canada, and their associated synoptic-scale environment. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 25952609.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Liu, Y., , Bastidas L. A. , , Gupta H. V. , , and Sorooshian S. , 2003: Impacts of a parameterization deficiency on offline and coupled land surface model simulations. J. Hydrometeor., 4, 901914.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lyon, S. W., and Coauthors, 2008: Coupling terrestrial and atmospheric water dynamics to improve prediction in a changing environment. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 89, 12751279.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Mahfouf, J.-F., , Brasnett B. , , and Gagnon S. , 2007: A Canadian Precipitation Analysis (CaPA) project: Description and preliminary results. Atmos.–Ocean, 45, 117.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Mahrt, L., 1998: Flux sampling errors for aircraft and towers. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 15, 416429.

  • Mailhot, J., and Coauthors, 2006: The 15-km version of the Canadian Regional Forecast System. Atmos.–Ocean, 44, 133149.

  • Neff, B. P., , and Nicholas J. R. , 2005: Uncertainty in the Great Lakes water balance. U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Rep. 2004-5100, 42 pp.

  • Ohmura, A., 2001: Physical basis for the temperature-based melt-index method. J. Appl. Meteor., 40, 753761.

  • Pietroniro, A., and Coauthors, 2007: Development of the MESH modelling system for hydrological ensemble forecasting of the Laurentian Great Lakes at the regional scale. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 12791294.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Powell, M. D., , Vickery P. J. , , and Reinhold T. A. , 2003: Reduced drag coefficient for high wind speeds in tropical cyclones. Nature, 422, 279283.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Quinn, F. H., 2009: Net basin supply comparison analysis. Hydroclimate Technical Work Group Task 2.2, St. Clair River Task Team, International Upper Great Lakes Study, 76 pp. [Available online at http://pub.iugls.org/en/St_Clair_Reports/Hydroclimatic/Hydroclimate-03.pdf.]

  • Quinn, F. H., , and Kelley R. N. , 1983: Great Lakes monthly hydrologic data. NOAA Data Rep. ERL GLERL-26, 79 pp.

  • Renfrew, I. A., , Moore G. W. K. , , Guest P. S. , , and Bumke K. , 2002: A comparison of surface layer and surface turbulent flux observations over the Labrador Sea with ECMWF analyses and NCEP reanalyses. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 32, 383400.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Rodriguez, Y., , Kristovich D. A. R. , , and Hjelmfelt M. R. , 2007: Lake-to-lake cloud bands: Frequencies and locations. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 42024213.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Santanello, J. A., , Peters-Lidard C. D. , , Kumar S. V. , , Alonge C. , , and Tao W.-K. , 2009: A modeling and observational framework for diagnosing local land–atmosphere coupling on diurnal time scales. J. Hydrometeor., 10, 577599.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Schertzer, W. M., 1978: Energy budget and monthly evaporation estimates for Lake Superior, 1973. J. Great Lakes Res., 4, 320330.

  • Soulis, E. D., , Craig J. R. , , Fortin V. , , and Liu G. , 2011: A simple expression for the bulk field capacity of a sloping soil horizon. Hydrol. Processes, 25, 112116.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Sousounis, P. J., , and Mann G. E. , 2000: Lake-aggregate mesoscale disturbances. Part V: Impacts on lake-effect precipitation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 728745.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Spence, C., , Blanken P. D. , , Hedstrom N. , , Fortin V. , , and Wilson H. , 2011: Evaporation from Lake Superior: 2. Spatial distribution and variability. J. Great Lakes Res., 37, 717724.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Steinfeld, G., , Letzel M. O. , , Raasch S. , , Kanda M. , , and Inagaki A. , 2007: Spatial representativeness of single tower measurements and the imbalance problem with eddy-covariance fluxes: Results of a large-eddy simulation study. Bound.-Layer Meteor., 123, 7798.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Van den Hurk, B. J. J. M., , Graham L. P. , , and Viterbo P. , 2002: Comparison of land surface hydrology in regional climate simulations of the Baltic Sea catchment. J. Hydrol., 255, 169193.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Verseghy, D. L., 2000: The Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS): Its history and future. Atmos.–Ocean, 38, 113.

  • Wood, E., , Lettenmaier D. , , and Zartarian V. , 1992: A land-surface hydrology parameterization with sub-grid variability for general circulation models. J. Geophys. Res., 97 (D3), 27172728.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Young, G. S., , Kristovich D. A. R. , , Hjelmfelt M. R. , , and Foster R. C. , 2002: Rolls, streets, waves, and more: A review of quasi-two-dimensional structures in the atmospheric boundary layer. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 83, 9971001.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 116 116 28
PDF Downloads 87 87 25

Predicting the Net Basin Supply to the Great Lakes with a Hydrometeorological Model

View More View Less
  • 1 Recherche en prévision numérique environnementale, Meteorological Research Division, Environment Canada, Dorval, Quebec, Canada
  • | 2 Water Survey of Canada, Environment Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
  • | 3 Aquatic Ecosystem Impacts Research Division, Environment Canada, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada
  • | 4 Department of Geography, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado
© Get Permissions
Restricted access

Abstract

The paper presents the incremental improvement of the prediction of the Great Lakes net basin supply (NBS) with the hydrometeorological model Modélisation Environmentale–Surface et Hydrologie (MESH) by increasing the accuracy of the simulated NBS components (overlake precipitation, lake evaporation, and runoff into the lake). This was achieved through a series of experiments with MESH and its parent numerical weather prediction model [the Canadian Global Environmental Multiscale model in its regional configuration (GEM Regional)]. With forcing extracted from operational GEM Regional forecasts, MESH underestimated the NBS in fall and winter. The underestimation increased when the GEM precipitation was replaced with its corrected version provided by the Canadian Precipitation Analysis. This pointed to overestimated lake evaporation and prompted the revision of the parameterization of the surface turbulent fluxes over water used both in MESH and GEM. The revised parameterization was validated against turbulent fluxes measured at a point on Lake Superior. Its use in MESH reduced the lake evaporation and largely corrected the NBS underestimation. However, the Lake Superior NBS became overestimated, signaling an inconsistency between the reduced lake evaporation and the prescribed precipitation. To remove the inconsistency, a new forcing dataset (including precipitation) was generated with the GEM model using the revised flux parameterization. A major NBS simulation improvement was obtained with the new atmospheric forcing reflecting the atmospheric response to the modified surface fluxes over the lakes. Additional improvements resulted by correcting the runoff with a modified snowmelt rate and by insertion of observed streamflows. The study shows that accurate lake evaporation simulation is crucial for accurate NBS prediction.

Corresponding author address: Vincent Fortin, Meteorological Research Division, Environment Canada, 2121 Trans-Canada Highway, 5th floor, Dorval QC H9P 1J3, Canada. E-mail: vincent.fortin@ec.gc.ca

Abstract

The paper presents the incremental improvement of the prediction of the Great Lakes net basin supply (NBS) with the hydrometeorological model Modélisation Environmentale–Surface et Hydrologie (MESH) by increasing the accuracy of the simulated NBS components (overlake precipitation, lake evaporation, and runoff into the lake). This was achieved through a series of experiments with MESH and its parent numerical weather prediction model [the Canadian Global Environmental Multiscale model in its regional configuration (GEM Regional)]. With forcing extracted from operational GEM Regional forecasts, MESH underestimated the NBS in fall and winter. The underestimation increased when the GEM precipitation was replaced with its corrected version provided by the Canadian Precipitation Analysis. This pointed to overestimated lake evaporation and prompted the revision of the parameterization of the surface turbulent fluxes over water used both in MESH and GEM. The revised parameterization was validated against turbulent fluxes measured at a point on Lake Superior. Its use in MESH reduced the lake evaporation and largely corrected the NBS underestimation. However, the Lake Superior NBS became overestimated, signaling an inconsistency between the reduced lake evaporation and the prescribed precipitation. To remove the inconsistency, a new forcing dataset (including precipitation) was generated with the GEM model using the revised flux parameterization. A major NBS simulation improvement was obtained with the new atmospheric forcing reflecting the atmospheric response to the modified surface fluxes over the lakes. Additional improvements resulted by correcting the runoff with a modified snowmelt rate and by insertion of observed streamflows. The study shows that accurate lake evaporation simulation is crucial for accurate NBS prediction.

Corresponding author address: Vincent Fortin, Meteorological Research Division, Environment Canada, 2121 Trans-Canada Highway, 5th floor, Dorval QC H9P 1J3, Canada. E-mail: vincent.fortin@ec.gc.ca
Save