• Betts, A. K., 2004: Understanding hydrometeorology using global models. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 85, 16731688.

  • Betts, A. K., , Ball J. H. , , Beljaars A. C. M. , , Miller M. J. , , and Viterbo P. A. , 1996: The land surface-atmosphere interaction: A review based on observational and global modeling perspectives. J. Geophys. Res., 101, 72097225.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dirmeyer, P. A., 2006: The hydrologic feedback pathway for land–climate coupling. J. Hydrometeor., 7, 857867.

  • Dirmeyer, P. A., 2011a: A history of the Global Soil Wetness Project (GSWP). J. Hydrometeor., 12, 729749.

  • Dirmeyer, P. A., 2011b: The terrestrial segment of soil moisture–climate coupling. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L16702, doi:10.1029/2011GL048268.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dirmeyer, P. A., , Schlosser C. A. , , and Brubaker K. L. , 2009: Precipitation, recycling and land memory: An integrated analysis. J. Hydrometeor., 10, 278288.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dirmeyer, P. A., and Coauthors, 2012: Evidence for enhanced land–atmosphere feedback in a warming climate. J. Hydrometeor., 13, 981995.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Findell, K., , Gentine P. , , Lintner B. R. , , and Kerr C. , 2011: Probability of afternoon precipitation in eastern United States and Mexico enhanced by high evaporation. Nat. Geosci., 4, 434439.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Guo, Z., and Coauthors, 2006: GLACE: The Global Land–Atmosphere Coupling Experiment. Part II: Analysis. J. Hydrometeor., 7, 611625.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Guo, Z., , Dirmeyer P. A. , , DelSole T. , , and Koster R. D. , 2012: Rebound in atmospheric predictability and the role of the land surface. J. Climate, 25, 47444749.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hurtt, G. C., and Coauthors, 2011: Harmonization of land-use scenarios for the period 1500–2100: 600 years of global gridded annual land-use transitions, wood harvest, and resulting secondary lands. Climatic Change, 101, 117161.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Knutti, R., , Abramowitz G. , , Collins M. , , Eyring V. , , Gleckler P. J. , , Hewitson B. , , and Mearns L. , 2010: Good practice guidance paper of assessing and combining multi model climate projections. IPCC Meeting Rep., 15 pp. [Available online at http://www.ipcc-wg2.gov/meetings/EMs/IPCC_EM_MME_GoodPracticeGuidancePaper.pdf.]

  • Koster, R. D., , and Suarez M. J. , 2003: Impact of land surface initialization on seasonal precipitation and temperature prediction. J. Hydrometeor., 4, 408423.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Koster, R. D., and Coauthors, 2004: Regions of strong coupling between soil moisture and precipitation. Science, 305, 11381140.

  • Koster, R. D., and Coauthors, 2006: GLACE: The Global Land–Atmosphere Coupling Experiment. Part I: Overview and results. J. Hydrometeor., 7, 590610.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Koster, R. D., and Coauthors, 2010: The contribution of land surface initialization to subseasonal forecast skill: First results from the GLACE-2 project. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L02402, doi:10.1029/2009GL041677.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Koster, R. D., and Coauthors, 2011: The second phase of the Global Land–Atmosphere Coupling Experiment: Soil moisture contributions to subseasonal forecast skill. J. Hydrometeor., 12, 805822.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lhomme, J.-P., 1997: An example of the Priestley–Taylor equation using a convective boundary layer model. Water Resour. Res., 33, 25712578.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Santanello, J. A., , Peters-Lidard C. D. , , Kumar S. V. , , Alonge C. , , and Tao W.-K. , 2009: A modeling and observational framework for diagnosing local land–atmosphere coupling on diurnal time scales. J. Hydrometeor., 10, 577599.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Santanello, J. A., , Peters-Lidard C. D. , , and Kumar S. V. , 2011: Diagnosing the sensitivity of local land–atmosphere coupling via the soil moisture–boundary layer interaction. J. Hydrometeor., 12, 766786.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Schlosser, C. A., , and Milly P. C. D. , 2002: A model-based investigation of soil moisture predictability and associated climate predictability. J. Hydrometeor., 3, 483501.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Seneviratne, S. I., , Corti T. , , Davin E. L. , , Hirschi M. , , Jaeger E. B. , , Lehner I. , , Orlowsky B. , , and Teuling A. J. , 2010: Investigating soil moisture–climate interactions in a changing climate: A review. Earth Sci. Rev., 99, 125161.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Snyder, P. K., 2010: The influence of tropical deforestation on the Northern Hemisphere climate by atmospheric teleconnections. Earth Interact., 14. [Available online at http://EarthInteractions.org.]

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Taylor, K. E., , Stouffer R. J. , , and Meehl G. A. , 2012: An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 485498.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Trenberth, K. E., and Coauthors, 2007: Observations: Surface and atmospheric climate change. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, S. Solomon et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 235–336.

All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 357 357 31
Full Text Views 61 61 4
PDF Downloads 80 80 12

Trends in Land–Atmosphere Interactions from CMIP5 Simulations

View More View Less
  • 1 George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia, and Center for Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, Maryland
  • | 2 George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia
© Get Permissions
Restricted access

Abstract

Data from 15 models of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) for preindustrial, historical, and future climate change experiments are examined for consensus changes in land surface variables, fluxes, and metrics relevant to land–atmosphere interactions. Consensus changes in soil moisture and latent heat fluxes for past-to-present and present-to-future periods are consistent with CMIP3 simulations, showing a general drying trend over land (less soil moisture, less evaporation) over most of the globe, with the notable exception of high northern latitudes during winter. Sensible heat flux and net radiation declined from preindustrial times to current conditions according to the multimodel consensus, mainly due to increasing aerosols, but that trend reverses abruptly in the future projection. No broad trends are found in soil moisture memory except for reductions during boreal winter associated with high-latitude warming and diminution of frozen soils. Land–atmosphere coupling is projected to increase in the future across most of the globe, meaning a greater control by soil moisture variations on surface fluxes and the lower troposphere. There is also a strong consensus for a deepening atmospheric boundary layer and diminished gradients across the entrainment zone at the top of the boundary layer, indicating that the land surface feedback on the atmosphere should become stronger both in absolute terms and relative to the influence of the conditions of the free atmosphere. Coupled with the trend toward greater hydrologic extremes such as severe droughts, the land surface seems likely to play a greater role in amplifying both extremes and trends in climate on subseasonal and longer time scales.

Corresponding author address: Paul A. Dirmeyer, Center for Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Studies, 4041 Powder Mill Rd., Suite 302, Calverton, MD 20705-3106. E-mail: dirmeyer@cola.iges.org

Abstract

Data from 15 models of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) for preindustrial, historical, and future climate change experiments are examined for consensus changes in land surface variables, fluxes, and metrics relevant to land–atmosphere interactions. Consensus changes in soil moisture and latent heat fluxes for past-to-present and present-to-future periods are consistent with CMIP3 simulations, showing a general drying trend over land (less soil moisture, less evaporation) over most of the globe, with the notable exception of high northern latitudes during winter. Sensible heat flux and net radiation declined from preindustrial times to current conditions according to the multimodel consensus, mainly due to increasing aerosols, but that trend reverses abruptly in the future projection. No broad trends are found in soil moisture memory except for reductions during boreal winter associated with high-latitude warming and diminution of frozen soils. Land–atmosphere coupling is projected to increase in the future across most of the globe, meaning a greater control by soil moisture variations on surface fluxes and the lower troposphere. There is also a strong consensus for a deepening atmospheric boundary layer and diminished gradients across the entrainment zone at the top of the boundary layer, indicating that the land surface feedback on the atmosphere should become stronger both in absolute terms and relative to the influence of the conditions of the free atmosphere. Coupled with the trend toward greater hydrologic extremes such as severe droughts, the land surface seems likely to play a greater role in amplifying both extremes and trends in climate on subseasonal and longer time scales.

Corresponding author address: Paul A. Dirmeyer, Center for Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Studies, 4041 Powder Mill Rd., Suite 302, Calverton, MD 20705-3106. E-mail: dirmeyer@cola.iges.org
Save