Precipitation Extremes in CMIP5 Simulations on Different Time Scales

Huan Zhang Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, and University of Hamburg, Meteorological Institute, KlimaCampus, Hamburg, Germany

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Klaus Fraedrich Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, and University of Hamburg, Meteorological Institute, KlimaCampus, Hamburg, Germany

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Richard Blender University of Hamburg, Meteorological Institute, KlimaCampus, Hamburg, Germany

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Xiuhua Zhu University of Hamburg, Meteorological Institute, KlimaCampus, Hamburg, Germany

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Abstract

Precipitation maxima in global climate model (GCM) simulations are compared with observations in terms of resolution dependence and climate change. The analysis shows the following results: (i) the observed scaling law relating precipitation maxima to duration is basically reproduced but exhibits resolution dependence, (ii) the intensity of precipitation extremes is up to one order of magnitude smaller in the model data, and (iii) the increase of precipitation maxima on short time scales in the warmer climate simulations [representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5)] vanishes for monthly time scales.

Corresponding author address: Huan Zhang, KlimaCampus, University of Hamburg, Grindelberg 5, 20144 Hamburg, Germany. E-mail: huan.zhang@zmaw.de

Abstract

Precipitation maxima in global climate model (GCM) simulations are compared with observations in terms of resolution dependence and climate change. The analysis shows the following results: (i) the observed scaling law relating precipitation maxima to duration is basically reproduced but exhibits resolution dependence, (ii) the intensity of precipitation extremes is up to one order of magnitude smaller in the model data, and (iii) the increase of precipitation maxima on short time scales in the warmer climate simulations [representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5)] vanishes for monthly time scales.

Corresponding author address: Huan Zhang, KlimaCampus, University of Hamburg, Grindelberg 5, 20144 Hamburg, Germany. E-mail: huan.zhang@zmaw.de
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