Regional, Very Heavy Daily Precipitation in CMIP5 Simulations

Sho Kawazoe Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences, Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa

Search for other papers by Sho Kawazoe in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
and
William J. Gutowski Jr. Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences, Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa

Search for other papers by William J. Gutowski Jr. in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
Restricted access

Abstract

The authors analyze the ability of global climate models (GCMs) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble to simulate very heavy daily precipitation and its supporting processes, comparing them with observations. Their analysis focuses on an upper Mississippi region for winter (December–February), when it is assumed that resolved synoptic circulation governs precipitation. CMIP5 GCMs generally reproduce well the precipitation versus intensity spectrum seen in observations to intensities as strong as 20 mm day−1. Most models do not produce the highest precipitation intensities seen in observations. Models show good agreement at the 95th percentile, while the coarsest resolution models generally show lower precipitation at high-intensity thresholds, such as the 99.5th percentile. There is no dominant month for simulated very heavy events to occur, although observed very heavy events occur most frequently in December. Further analysis focuses on precipitation events exceeding the 99.5th percentile that occur simultaneously at several points in the region, yielding so-called “widespread events.” Examination of additional fields during widespread very heavy events shows that the models produce these events under the same physical conditions seen in the observations. The coarsest models generally produce similar behavior, although features have smoother spatial distributions. However, the resolution in itself could not be identified as a major reason that separates one model from another. The capabilities of the CMIP5 GCMs examined here support using them to assess changes in very heavy precipitation under future climate scenarios.

Corresponding author address: Sho Kawazoe, 3019 Agronomy Hall, Iowa State University, Ames, IA 50011. E-mail: shomtm62@iastate.edu

Abstract

The authors analyze the ability of global climate models (GCMs) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble to simulate very heavy daily precipitation and its supporting processes, comparing them with observations. Their analysis focuses on an upper Mississippi region for winter (December–February), when it is assumed that resolved synoptic circulation governs precipitation. CMIP5 GCMs generally reproduce well the precipitation versus intensity spectrum seen in observations to intensities as strong as 20 mm day−1. Most models do not produce the highest precipitation intensities seen in observations. Models show good agreement at the 95th percentile, while the coarsest resolution models generally show lower precipitation at high-intensity thresholds, such as the 99.5th percentile. There is no dominant month for simulated very heavy events to occur, although observed very heavy events occur most frequently in December. Further analysis focuses on precipitation events exceeding the 99.5th percentile that occur simultaneously at several points in the region, yielding so-called “widespread events.” Examination of additional fields during widespread very heavy events shows that the models produce these events under the same physical conditions seen in the observations. The coarsest models generally produce similar behavior, although features have smoother spatial distributions. However, the resolution in itself could not be identified as a major reason that separates one model from another. The capabilities of the CMIP5 GCMs examined here support using them to assess changes in very heavy precipitation under future climate scenarios.

Corresponding author address: Sho Kawazoe, 3019 Agronomy Hall, Iowa State University, Ames, IA 50011. E-mail: shomtm62@iastate.edu
Save
  • Brubaker, K. L., Dirmeyer P. A. , Sudradjat A. , Levy B. S. , and Bernal F. , 2001: A 36-yr climatological description of the evaporative sources of warm-season precipitation in the Mississippi River basin. J. Hydrometeor., 2, 537557.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Daly, C., Neilson R. P. , and Phillips D. L. , 1994: A statistical-topographic model for mapping climatological precipitation over mountainous terrain. J. Appl. Meteor., 33, 140158.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Groisman, P. Y., Knight R. W. , Easterling D. R. , Karl T. R. , Hegerl G. C. , and Razuvaev V. N. , 2005: Trends in intense precipitation in the climate record. J. Climate, 18, 13261350.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gutowski, W. J., Willis S. S. , Patton J. C. , Schwedler B. R. J. , Arritt R. W. , and Takle E. S. , 2008: Changes in extreme, cold-season synoptic precipitation events under global warming. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L20710, doi:10.1029/2008GL035516.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gutowski, W. J., and Coauthors, 2010: Regional extreme monthly precipitation simulated by NARCCAP RCMs. J. Hydrometeor., 11, 13731379.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kanamitsu, M., Ebisuzaki W. , Woollen J. , Yang S. K. , Hnilo J. J. , Fiorino M. , and Potter G. L. , 2002: NCEP–DOE AMIP-II reanalysis (R-2). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 83, 16311643.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kawazoe, S., and Gutowski W. J. , 2013: Regional, very heavy daily precipitation in NARCCAP simulations. J. Hydrometeor., 14, 12121227.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kunkel, K. E., and Liang X.-Z. , 2005: GCM simulations of the climate in the central United States. J. Climate, 18, 10161031.

  • Kunkel, K. E., Andsager K. , Liang X.-Z. , Arritt R. W. , Takle E. S. , Gutowski W. J. , and Pan Z. , 2002: Observations and regional climate model simulations of heavy precipitation events and seasonal anomalies: A comparison. J. Hydrometeor., 3, 322334.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Maurer, E. P., Wood A. W. , Adam J. C. , Lettenmaier D. P. , and Nijssen B. , 2002: A long-term hydrologically based dataset of land surface fluxes and states for the conterminous United States. J. Climate, 15, 32373251.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Mesinger, F., and Coauthors, 2006: North American Regional Reanalysis. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 87, 343360.

  • Schumacher, R. S., and Johnson R. H. , 2005: Organization and environmental properties of extreme-rain-producing mesoscale convective systems. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 961976.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Schumacher, R. S., and Johnson R. H. , 2006: Characteristics of U.S. Extreme Rain Events during 1999–2003. Wea. Forecasting, 21, 6985.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Shepard, D. S., 1984: Computer mapping: The SYMAP interpolation algorithm. Spatial Statistics and Models, G. L Gaile and C. J. Willmott, Eds., D. Reidel, 133–145.

  • Taylor, K. E., Stouffer R. J. , and Meehl G. A. , 2012: An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 485498.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wendland, W. M., and Coauthors, 1983: Review of the unusual winter of 1982–83 in the upper Midwest. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.,64, 1346–1350.

  • Widmann, M., and Bretherton C. S. , 2000: Validation of mesoscale precipitation in the NCEP reanalysis using a new gridcell dataset for the northwestern United States. J. Climate, 13, 19361950.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 74 0 0
Full Text Views 593 316 15
PDF Downloads 131 42 0