Spatial–Temporal Changes of Water Resources in a Typical Semiarid Basin of North China over the Past 50 Years and Assessment of Possible Natural and Socioeconomic Causes

Bin Yong * State Key Laboratory of Hydrology–Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing China

Search for other papers by Bin Yong in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Liliang Ren * State Key Laboratory of Hydrology–Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing China

Search for other papers by Liliang Ren in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Yang Hong School of Civil Engineering and Environmental Sciences, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma

Search for other papers by Yang Hong in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Jonathan J. Gourley NOAA/National Severe Storm Laboratory, Norman, Oklahoma

Search for other papers by Jonathan J. Gourley in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Xi Chen * State Key Laboratory of Hydrology–Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing China

Search for other papers by Xi Chen in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Jinwei Dong Department of Botany and Microbiology, Center for Spatial Analysis, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma

Search for other papers by Jinwei Dong in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Weiguang Wang * State Key Laboratory of Hydrology–Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing China

Search for other papers by Weiguang Wang in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Yan Shen National Meteorological Information Center, Beijing, China

Search for other papers by Yan Shen in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
, and
Jill Hardy NOAA/National Severe Storm Laboratory, Norman, Oklahoma

Search for other papers by Jill Hardy in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
Restricted access

Abstract

Hydrological processes in most semiarid regions on Earth have been changing under the impacts of climate change, human activities, or combinations of the two. This paper first presents a trend analysis of the spatiotemporal changes in water resources and then diagnoses their underlying atmospheric and socioeconomic causes over 10 catchments in the Laoha basin, a typical semiarid zone of northeast China. The impacts of climate variability and human activities on streamflow change were quantitatively evaluated by the VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) model. First, results indicate that six out of the 10 studied catchments have statistically significant downward trends in annual streamflow; however, there is no significant change of annual precipitation for all catchments. Two abrupt changes of annual streamflow at 1979 and 1998 are identified for the four largest catchments. Second, the Laoha basin generally experienced three evident dry–wet pattern switches during the past 50 years. Furthermore, this basin is currently suffering from unprecedented water shortages. Large-scale climate variability has affected the local natural hydrologic system. Third, quantitative evaluation shows human activities were the main driving factors for the streamflow reduction with contributions of approximately 90% for the whole basin. A significant increase in irrigated area, which inevitably resulted in tremendous agricultural water consumption, is the foremost culprit contributing to the dramatic runoff reduction, especially at midstream and downstream of the Laoha basin. This study is expected to enable policymakers and stakeholders to make well-informed, short-term practice decisions and better plan long-term water resource and ecoenvironment management strategies.

Corresponding author address: Bin Yong, Ph.D., Professor, State Key Laboratory of Hydrology–Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China. E-mail: yongbin_hhu@126.com

Abstract

Hydrological processes in most semiarid regions on Earth have been changing under the impacts of climate change, human activities, or combinations of the two. This paper first presents a trend analysis of the spatiotemporal changes in water resources and then diagnoses their underlying atmospheric and socioeconomic causes over 10 catchments in the Laoha basin, a typical semiarid zone of northeast China. The impacts of climate variability and human activities on streamflow change were quantitatively evaluated by the VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) model. First, results indicate that six out of the 10 studied catchments have statistically significant downward trends in annual streamflow; however, there is no significant change of annual precipitation for all catchments. Two abrupt changes of annual streamflow at 1979 and 1998 are identified for the four largest catchments. Second, the Laoha basin generally experienced three evident dry–wet pattern switches during the past 50 years. Furthermore, this basin is currently suffering from unprecedented water shortages. Large-scale climate variability has affected the local natural hydrologic system. Third, quantitative evaluation shows human activities were the main driving factors for the streamflow reduction with contributions of approximately 90% for the whole basin. A significant increase in irrigated area, which inevitably resulted in tremendous agricultural water consumption, is the foremost culprit contributing to the dramatic runoff reduction, especially at midstream and downstream of the Laoha basin. This study is expected to enable policymakers and stakeholders to make well-informed, short-term practice decisions and better plan long-term water resource and ecoenvironment management strategies.

Corresponding author address: Bin Yong, Ph.D., Professor, State Key Laboratory of Hydrology–Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China. E-mail: yongbin_hhu@126.com
Save
  • Alan, D. Z., Justin S. , Edwin P. M. , Bart N. , Eric F. W. , and Dennis P. L. , 2003: Detection of intensification in global- and continental-scale hydrological cycles: Temporal scale of evaluation. J. Climate, 16, 535547.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Alley, W. M., 1984: The Palmer Drought Severity Index: Limitations and assumptions. J. Climate Appl. Meteor., 23, 11001109.

  • Bates, B. C., Kundzewicz Z. W. , Wu S. , and Palutikof J. P. , Eds., 2008: Climate Change and Water. Tech. Paper VI, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva, Switzerland, 210 pp. [Available online at http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/technical-papers/climate-change-water-en.pdf.]

  • Bouchet, R., 1963: Evapotranspiration reelle et potentielle, signification climatique. IAHS Publ., 62, 134142.

  • Brown, A. E., Zhang L. , McMahon T. A. , Western A. W. , and Vertessy R. A. , 2005: A review of paired catchment studies for determining changes in water yield resulting from alterations in vegetation. J. Hydrol., 310, 2861.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Brutsaert, W., and Parlange M. B. , 1998: Hydrologic cycle explains the evaporation paradox. Nature, 396, 2930.

  • Chiew, F. H. S., and McMahon T. A. , 2002: Modelling the impacts of climate change on Australian streamflow. Hydrol. Processes, 16, 12351245.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Consulting Report of Chinese Academy of Science, 2003: Several suggestions about further carrying out the national policy of “returning farmland to forest and grassland” in Loess Plateau. Adv. Earth Sci., 18, 168171.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ding, Z., Liu W. , and Zhao L. , 1996: A preliminary analysis of the water quality assessment and pollution prevention for the water system at the upper reaches of the West Liao River. Water Resour. Prot., 4, 2024.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Douglas, E. M., Vogel R. M. , and Kroll C. N. , 2000: Trends in floods and low flows in the United States: Impact of spatial correlation. J. Hydrol., 240, 90105.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Fu, C., and De Vries F. P. , 2006: The Initial Science Plan of the Monsoon Asia Integrated Regional Study. Meteorology Press, 80 pp.

  • Gedney, N., Cox P. M. , Betts R. A. , Boucher O. , Huntingford C. , and Stott P. A. , 2006: Detection of a direct carbon dioxide effect in continental river runoff records. Nature, 439, 835838.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hang, Y. F., Guan D. X. , Jin C. J. , Wang A. Z. , Wu J. B. , and Yuan F. H. , 2011: Analysis of impacts of climate variability and human activity on streamflow for a river basin in northeast China. J. Hydrol., 410, 239247.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Huntington, T. G., 2006: Evidence for intensification of the global water cycle: Review and synthesis. J. Hydrol., 319, 8395.

  • Hurst, H. E., 1951: Long-term storage capacity of reservoirs. Trans. Am. Soc. Civ. Eng., 116, 770799.

  • Kendall, M. G., 1975: Rank Correlation Methods. Griffin, 202 pp.

  • Kurtzman, D., and Scanlon B. R. , 2007: El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Pacific decadal oscillation impacts on precipitation in the southern and central United States: Evaluation of spatial distribution and predictions. Water Resour. Res., 43, W10427, doi:10.1029/2007WR005863.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Labat, D., Goddéris Y. , Probst J. L. , and Guyot J. L. , 2004: Evidence for global runoff increase related to climate warming. Adv. Water Resour., 27, 631642.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lammers, R. B., Shiklomanov A. I. , Vörösmarty C. J. , Fekete B. M. , and Peterson B. J. , 2001: Assessment of contemporary Arctic river runoff based on observational discharge records. J. Geophys. Res., 106, 33213334.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Liang, X., Lettenmaier D. P. , Wood E. F. , and Burges S. J. , 1994: A simple hydrologically based model of land surface water and energy fluxes for general-circulation models. J. Geophys. Res., 99 (D7), 14 41514 428.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lindstrom, G., and Bergstrom S. , 2004: Runoff trends in Sweden 1807–2002. Hydrol. Sci. J., 49, 6983.

  • Liu, C., and Xia J. , 2004: Water problems and hydrological research in the Yellow River and the Huai and Hai River basins of China. Hydrol. Processes, 18, 21972210.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Liu, C., and Zheng H. , 2004: Changes in components of the hydrological cycle in the Yellow River basin during the second half of the 20th century. Hydrol. Processes, 18, 23372345.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Liu, D., Chen X. , Lian Y. , and Lou Z. , 2010: Impact of climate variability and human activity on streamflow decrease in the Miyun Reservoir catchment. Hydrol. Processes, 24, 14871495.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Liu, J., Liu M. , Deng X. , Zhuang D. , Zhang Z. , and Luo D. , 2002: The land use and land cover change database and its relative studies in China. J. Geogr. Sci., 12, 275282.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Liu, J., Liu M. , Tian H. , Zhuang D. , Zhang Z. , Zhang W. , Tang X. , and Deng X. , 2005a: Spatial and temporal patterns of China's cropland during 1990–2000: An analysis based on Landsat TM data. Remote Sens. Environ., 98, 442456.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Liu, J., Tian H. , Liu M. , Zhuang D. , Melillo J. M. , and Zhang Z. , 2005b: China's changing landscape during the 1990s: Large-scale land transformations estimated with satellite data. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L02405, doi:10.1029/2004GL021649.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ma, H., Yang D. , Tan S. K. , Gao B. , and Hu Q. , 2010: Impact of climate variability and human activity on streamflow decrease in the Miyun Reservoir catchment. J. Hydrol., 389, 317324.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ma, Z., 2007: The interdecadal trend and shift of dry/wet over the central part of North China and their relationship to the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). Chin. Sci. Bull., 52, 21302139.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ma, Z. M., Kang S. Z. , Zhang L. , Tong L. , and Su X. L. , 2008: Analysis of impacts of climate variability and human activity on streamflow for a river basin in arid region of northwest China. J. Hydrol., 352, 239249.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Mann, H. B., 1945: Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica, 13, 245259.

  • Mantua, N. J., Hare S. R. , Zhang Y. , Wallace J. M. , and Francis R. C. , 1997: A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 10691079.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Maurer, E. P., Wood A. W. , Adam J. C. , Lettenmaier D. P. , and Nijssen B. , 2002: A long-term hydrologically based dataset of land surface fluxes and states for the conterminous United States. J. Climate, 15, 32373251.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • McKee, T. B., Doesken N. J. , and Kleist J. , 1993: The relationship of drought frequency and duration of time scales. Preprints, Eighth Conf. on Applied Climatology, Anaheim, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 179–184.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Milliman, J. D., Farnsworth K. L. , Jones P. D. , Xu K. H. , and Smith L. C. , 2008: Climatic and anthropogenic factors affecting river discharge to the global ocean, 1951–2000. Global Planet. Change, 62, 187194.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Milly, P. C. D., Wetherald R. T. , Dunne K. A. , and Delworth T. L. , 2002: Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate. Nature, 415, 514517.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Milly, P. C. D., Dunne K. A. , and Vecchia A. V. , 2005: Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate. Nature, 438, 347350.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Minobe, S., 1997: A 50–70 year climatic oscillation over the North Pacific and North America. Geophys. Res. Lett., 24, 683686.

  • Mu, X. M., Zhang L. , McVicar T. R. , Chille B. S. , and Gau P. , 2007: Analysis of the impact of conservation measures on stream flow regime in catchments of the Loess Plateau, China. Hydrol. Processes, 21, 21242134.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Namias, J., 1966: Nature and possible causes of northeastern United States drought during 1962–65. Mon. Wea. Rev., 94, 543554.

  • Nijssen, B., Lettenmaier D. P. , Liang X. , Wetzel S. W. , and Wood E. F. , 1997: Streamflow simulation for continental-scale river basins. Water Resour. Res., 33, 711724.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Nijssen, B., O'Donnell G. M. , Hamlet A. F. , and Lettenmaier D. P. , 2001a: Hydrologic sensitivity of global rivers to climate change. Climatic Change,50, 143–175.

  • Nijssen, B., O'Donnell G. M. , Lettenmaier D. P. , Lohmann D. , and Wood E. F. , 2001b: Predicting the discharge of global rivers. J. Climate, 14, 33073323.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Oki, T., and Kanae S. , 2006: Global hydrological cycles and world water resources. Science, 313, 10681072, doi:10.1126/science.1128845.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Oliver, M. A., and Webster R. , 1990: Kriging: A method of interpolation for geographical information systems. Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Syst., 4, 313332.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Peterson, B. J., Holmes R. M. , McCelland J. W. , Vörösmarty C. J. , Lammers R. B. , Shiklomanov A. I. , Shiklomanov I. A. , and Rahmstorf S. , 2002: Increasing river discharge to the Arctic Ocean. Science, 298, 21712173.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Pettitt, A., 1979: A nonparametric approach to the change point problem. Appl. Stat., 28, 126135.

  • Probst, J. L., and Tardy Y. , 1987: Long range streamflow and world continental runoff fluctuations since the beginning of this century. J. Hydrol., 94, 289311.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ren, L., Wang M. , Li C. , and Zhang W. , 2002: Impacts of human activity on river runoff in the northern area of China. J. Hydrol., 261, 204217.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Schwinning, S., Sala O. E. , Loik M. E. , and Ehleringer J. R. , 2004: Thresholds, memory, and seasonality: Understanding pulse dynamics in arid/semi-arid ecosystems. Oecologia, 141, 191193.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Semenov, V. S., and Bengtsson L. B. , 2002: Secular trends in daily precipitation characteristics: Greenhouse gas simulation with a coupled AOGCM. Climate Dyn., 19, 123140.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Sheffield, J., and Wood E. F. , 2008: Global trends and variability in soil moisture and drought characteristics, 1950–2000, from observation-driven simulations of the terrestrial hydrologic cycle. J. Climate, 21, 432458.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Sheffield, J., Wood E. F. , and Roderick M. L. , 2012: Little change in global drought over the past 60 years. Nature, 491, 435438.

  • Shi, Y., and Zhang X. , 1995: Impact of climate change on surface water resource and tendency in the future in the arid zone of north-western China. Sci. China Ser. B, 38, 13951408.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Su, F., Adam J. C. , Bowling L. C. , and Lettenmaier D. P. , 2005: Streamflow simulations of the terrestrial Arctic domain. J. Geophys. Res., 110, D08112, doi:10.1029/2004JD005518.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Tooth, S., 2000: Process, form and change in dryland rivers: A review of recent research. Earth Sci. Rev., 51, 67107.

  • Vasiliades, L., Loukas A. , and Liberis N. , 2011: A water balance derived drought index for Pinios River basin, Greece. Water Resour. Manage., 25, 10871101.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Vörösmarty, C. J., Green P. , Salisbury J. , and Lammers R. B. , 2000: Global water resources: Vulnerability from climate change and population growth. Science, 289, 284288.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Vörösmarty, C. J., and Coauthors, 2010: Global threats to human water security and river biodiversity. Nature, 467, 555561.

  • Wang, C., and Guo Y. , 2011: Precipitable water conversion rates over the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) Plateau: Changing characteristics with global warming. Hydrol. Processes, 26, 15091516.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wang, J., Hong Y. , Gourley J. , Adhikari P. , Li L. , and Su F. , 2010: Quantitative assessment of climate change and human impact on long-term hydrologic response using an impact factor formula: A case study in a sub-basin of the Yellow River, China. Int. J. Climatol., 30, 21302137.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wang, W., Shao Q. , Peng S. , Xing W. , Yang T. , Luo Y. , Yong B. , and Xu J. , 2012: Reference evapotranspiration change and the causes across the Yellow River basin during 1957–2008 and their spatial and seasonal differences. Water Resour. Res., 48, W05530, doi:10.1029/2011WR010724.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Warren, A., Sud Y. C. , and Rozanov B. , 1996: The future of deserts. J. Arid Environ., 32, 7589.

  • Wood, A. W., and Lettenmaier D. P. , 2006: A test bed for new seasonal hydrologic forecasting approaches in the western United States. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 87, 16991712.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Yang, D. Q., Kane D. L. , Hinzman L. D. , Zhang X. B. , Zhang T. J. , and Ye H. C. , 2002: Siberian Lena River hydrologic regime and recent change. J. Geophys. Res., 107, 4694, doi:10.1029/2002JD002542.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Yang, D. W., Sun F. B. , Liu Z. T. , Cong Z. T. , and Lei Z. D. , 2006: Interpreting the complementary relationship in non-humid environments based on the Budyko and Penman hypotheses. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L18402, doi:10.1029/2006GL027657.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Yang, H., and Yang D. , 2012: Climatic factors influencing changing pan evaporation across China from 1961 to 2001. J. Hydrol., 414–415, 184193.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Yong, B., Ren L.-L. , Hong Y. , Wang J.-H. , Gourley J. J. , Jiang S.-H. , Chen X. , and Wang W. , 2010: Hydrologic evaluation of Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis standard precipitation products in basins beyond its inclined latitude band: A case study in Laohahe basin, China. Water Resour. Res., 46, W07542, doi:10.1029/2009WR008965.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Yong, B., Hong Y. , Ren L. L. , Gourley J. J. , Huffman G. J. , Chen X. , Wang W. , and Khan S. , 2012: Assessment of evolving TRMM-based multi-satellite real-time precipitation estimation methods and their impacts on hydrologic prediction in a high latitude basin. J. Geophys. Res., 117, D09108, doi:10.1029/2011JD017069.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Yu, J., Zhang Y. , and Liu C. , 2009: Validity of the Bouchet's complementary relationship at 102 observatories across China. Sci. China Ser. D, 52, 708713.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Yue, S., and Wang C. Y. , 2002: Applicability of prewhitening to eliminate the influence of serial correlation on the Mann-Kendall test. Water Resour. Res., 38, 1068, doi:10.1029/2001WR000861.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zhang, Q., Xu C. Y. , and Yang T. , 2009: Variability of water resource in the Yellow River basin of past 50 years, China. Water Resour. Manage., 23, 11571170.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zhang, X., Harvey K. D. , Hogg W. D. , and Yuzyk T. R. , 2001: Trends in Canadian streamflow. Water Resour. Res., 37, 987998.

  • Zhang, X. P., Zhang L. , Zhao J. , Rustomji P. , and Hairsine P. , 2008: Responses of streamflow to changes in climate and land use/cover in the Loess Plateau, China. Water Resour. Res., 44, W00A07, doi:10.1029/2007WR006711.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zhang, Z. X., Chen X. , Xu C. Y. , Yuan L. F. , Yong B. , and Yan S. F. , 2011: Evaluating the non-stationary relationship between precipitation and streamflow in nine major basins of China during the past 50 years. J. Hydrol., 409, 8193.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zhao, M., and Running S. W. , 2010: Drought-induced reduction in global terrestrial net primary production from 2000 through 2009. Science, 329, 940943, doi:10.1126/science.1192666.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zhao, R. J., Zhang Y. L. , Fang L. R. , Liu X. R. , and Zhang Q. S. , 1980: The Xinanjiang model. IAHS Publ.,129, 351–356.

  • Zheng, H., Zhang L. , Zhu R. , Liu C. , Sato Y. , and Fukushima Y. , 2009: Responses of streamflow to climate and land surface change in the headwaters of the Yellow River basin. Water Resour. Res., 45, W00A19, doi:10.1029/2007WR006665.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zhuang, D., Liu J. , and Liu M. , 1999: Research activities on land use/land cover in the past ten years in China using space technology. Chin. Geogr. Sci., 4, 330334.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 267 0 0
Full Text Views 2363 1503 66
PDF Downloads 374 100 12