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Article
Article Type:
Research Article

Urbanization and Climate Change: An Examination of Nonstationarities in Urban Flooding

Long Yang Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China, and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey

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James A. Smith Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey

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Daniel B. Wright Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey

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Mary Lynn Baeck Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey

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Gabriele Villarini IIHR—Hydroscience and Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa

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Fuqiang Tian Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China

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Heping Hu Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China

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Print Publication:
01 Dec 2013
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-12-095.1
Page(s):
1791–1809
Restricted access

Abstract

The authors examine the hydroclimatology, hydrometeorology, and hydrology of flooding in the Milwaukee metropolitan region of the upper midwestern United States. The objectives of this study are 1) to assess nonstationarities in flood frequency associated with urban transformation of land surface properties and climate change and 2) to examine how spatial heterogeneity in land surface properties and heavy rainfall climatology interact to determine floods in urbanizing areas. The authors focus on the Menomonee River basin, which drains much of the urban core of Milwaukee, and the adjacent Cedar Creek basin, where agricultural land use dominates. Results are based on analyses of bias-corrected, high-resolution (1-km2 spatial resolution and 15-min time resolution) radar rainfall fields that are developed using the Hydro-NEXRAD system, rainfall observations from a network of 21 rain gauges in the Milwaukee metropolitan region, and discharge observations from 11 U.S. Geological Survey stream gauging stations. Both annual flood peak magnitudes and annual peaks over threshold flood counts have increased for the Menomonee River basin during the past five decades, and these trends are accompanied by a transition of flood events dominated by snowmelt (March–April floods) to a regime in which warm season thunderstorms are the dominant flood-producing agents. The frequency of heavy rainfall events has increased significantly. The spatial distribution of rainfall for flood-producing storms in the Milwaukee study region exhibits striking spatial heterogeneity, with a maximum in the central portion of the Menomonee River basin. Storm event hydrologic response is determined by the interactions of spatial patterns of urbanization and rainfall distribution in the Menomonee River basin.

Corresponding author address: Long Yang, New Hydraulic Building, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China. E-mail: yanglong86123@hotmail.com

Abstract

The authors examine the hydroclimatology, hydrometeorology, and hydrology of flooding in the Milwaukee metropolitan region of the upper midwestern United States. The objectives of this study are 1) to assess nonstationarities in flood frequency associated with urban transformation of land surface properties and climate change and 2) to examine how spatial heterogeneity in land surface properties and heavy rainfall climatology interact to determine floods in urbanizing areas. The authors focus on the Menomonee River basin, which drains much of the urban core of Milwaukee, and the adjacent Cedar Creek basin, where agricultural land use dominates. Results are based on analyses of bias-corrected, high-resolution (1-km2 spatial resolution and 15-min time resolution) radar rainfall fields that are developed using the Hydro-NEXRAD system, rainfall observations from a network of 21 rain gauges in the Milwaukee metropolitan region, and discharge observations from 11 U.S. Geological Survey stream gauging stations. Both annual flood peak magnitudes and annual peaks over threshold flood counts have increased for the Menomonee River basin during the past five decades, and these trends are accompanied by a transition of flood events dominated by snowmelt (March–April floods) to a regime in which warm season thunderstorms are the dominant flood-producing agents. The frequency of heavy rainfall events has increased significantly. The spatial distribution of rainfall for flood-producing storms in the Milwaukee study region exhibits striking spatial heterogeneity, with a maximum in the central portion of the Menomonee River basin. Storm event hydrologic response is determined by the interactions of spatial patterns of urbanization and rainfall distribution in the Menomonee River basin.

Corresponding author address: Long Yang, New Hydraulic Building, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China. E-mail: yanglong86123@hotmail.com
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