• Angel, J. R., , and Huff F. A. , 1997: Changes in heavy rainfall in Midwestern United States. J. Water Resour. Plan. Manage., 123, 246249.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Baeck, M. L., , and Smith J. A. , 1998: Rainfall estimation by the WSR-88D for heavy rainfall events. Wea. Forecasting, 13, 416436.

  • Bentley, M. L., , and Stallins J. A. , 2005: Climatology of cloud-to-ground lightning in Georgia, USA. Int. J. Climatol., 25, 19791996.

  • Borga, M., , Tonelli F. , , Moore R. J. , , and Andrieu H. , 2002: Long-term assessment of bias adjustment in radar rainfall estimation. Water Resour. Res., 38, 1226, doi:10.1029/2001WR000555.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bornstein, R., , and Lin Q. , 2000: Urban heat islands and summertime convective thunderstorms in Atlanta: Three case studies. Atmos. Environ., 34, 507516.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Carey, L. D., , and Rutledge S. A. , 2003: Characteristics of cloud-to-ground lightning in severe and nonsevere storms over the central United States from 1989 to 1998. J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4483, doi:10.1029/2002JD002951.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Carey, L. D., , Rutledge S. A. , , and Petersen W. A. , 2003: The relationship between severe storm reports and cloud-to-ground lightning polarity in the contiguous United States from 1989 to 1998. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 12111228.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Changnon, S. A., 1980: Evidence of urban and lake influences on precipitation in the Chicago area. J. Appl. Meteor., 19, 11371159.

  • Changnon, S. A., , and Demissie M. , 1996: Detection of changes in streamflow and floods resulting from climate fluctuations and land use-drainage changes. Climatic Change, 32, 411421.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Changnon, S. A., , Huff F. A. , , and Semonin R. G. , 1971: METROMEX: An investigation of inadvertent weather modification. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 52, 958967.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Cheng, C. K. M., , and Chan J. C. L. , 2012: Impacts of land use changes and synoptic forcing on the seasonal climate over the Pearl River delta of China. Atmos. Environ., 60, 2536.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Chung, E.-S., , Park K. , , and Lee K. S. , 2011: The relative impacts of climate change and urbanization on the hydrological response of a Korean urban watershed. Hydrol. Processes, 25, 544560.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ciach, G. J., , and Krajewski W. F. , 1999: On the estimation of radar rainfall error variance. Adv. Water Resour., 22, 585595.

  • Claessens, L., , Hopkinson C. , , Rastetter E. , , and Vallino J. , 2006: Effect of historical changes in land use and climate on the water budget of an urbanizing watershed. Water Resour. Res.,42, W03426, doi:10.1029/2005WR004131.

  • Collier, C., 2005: The impact of urban areas on weather. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 132, 125.

  • Cuo, L., , Lenttenmaier D. P. , , Alberti M. , , and Richy J. E. , 2009: Effects of a century of land cover and climate change on the hydrology of the Puget Sound basin. Hydrol. Processes, 23, 907933.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dixon, P. G., , and Mote T. L. , 2003: Patterns and causes of Atlanta's urban heat island-initiated precipitation. J. Appl. Meteor., 42, 12731284.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Doswell, C. A., , Brooks H. E. , , and Maddox R. A. , 1996: Flash flood forecasting: An ingredients-based methodology. Wea. Forecasting, 11, 560581.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Easterling, D. R., , Meehl G. A. , , Parmesan C. , , Changnon S. A. , , Karl T. R. , , and Mearns L. O. , 2000: Climate extremes: Observations, modeling, and impacts. Science, 289, 20682074.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Franczyk, J., , and Chang H. , 2009: The effects of climate change and urbanization on the runoff of the rock creek basin in the Portland metropolitan area, Oregon, USA. Hydrol. Processes, 23, 805815.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Fulton, R., , Breidenbach J. P. , , Seo D. J. , , Miller D. A. , , and O'Bannon T. , 1998: The WSR-88D rainfall algorithm. Wea. Forecasting, 13, 377398.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hejazi, M. I., , and Markus M. , 2009: Impacts of urbanization and climate variability on floods in northeastern Illinois. J. Hydrol. Eng., 14, 606616.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Held, I. M., , and Soden B. J. , 2006: Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming. J. Climate, 19, 56865699.

  • Hewlett, J. D., , and Helvey J. D. , 1970: Effects of forest clear-felling on the storm hydrograph. Water Resour. Res., 6, 768782.

  • Solomon, S., , Qin D. , , Manning M. , , Marquis M. , , Averyt K. , , Tignor M. M. B. , , Miller H. L. Jr., , and Chen Z. , Eds., 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge University Press, 996 pp.

  • Karl, T. R., , and Knight R. W. , 1998: Secular trends of precipitation amounts, frequency, and intensity in the USA. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 79, 231241.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kendall, M. G., 1975: Rank Correlation Methods. Charles Griffin, London.

  • Krajewski, W. F., , and Smith J. A. , 2002: Radar hydrology: Rainfall estimation. Adv. Water Resour., 25, 13871394.

  • Krajewski, W. F., and Coauthors, 2010: Towards better utilization of NEXRAD data in hydrology: An overview of Hydro-NEXRAD. J. Hydroinf., 13, 255266.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kunkel, K. E., , Andsager K. , , and Easterling D. R. , 1999: Long-term trends in extreme precipitation events over the coterminous United States and Canada. J. Climate, 12, 25152527.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lei, M., , Niyogi D. , , Kishtawal C. , , Pielke R. A. , , Beltran-Przekurat A. , , Nobis T. E. , , and Vaidya S. S. , 2008: Effect of explicit urban land surface representation on the simulation of the 26 July 2005 heavy rain event over Mumbai, India. Atmos. Chem. Phys.,8, 5975–5995.

  • Lettenmaier, D. P., , Wood E. F. , , and Wallis J. R. , 1994: Hydroclimatological trends in the continental United States, 1948–88. J. Climate, 7, 586607.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lin, C.-Y., , Chen W.-C. , , Chang P.-L. , , and Sheng Y.-F. , 2011: Impact of the urban heat island effect on precipitation over a complex geographic environment in northern Taiwan. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 50, 339353.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lo, J. C. F., , Lau A. K. H. , , Chen F. , , Fung J. C. H. , , and Leung K. K. M. , 2007: Urban modification in a mesoscale model and the effects on the local circulation in the Pearl River delta region. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 46, 457476.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lowry, W. P., 1998: Urban effects on precipitation amount. Prog. Phys. Geogr., 22, 477520.

  • Mann, H. B., 1945: Non-parametric tests against trend. Econometrica, 13, 245259.

  • Merz, R., 2003: A process typology of regional floods. Water Resour. Res., 39, 1340, doi:10.1029/2002WR001952.

  • Miao, S., , Chen F. , , Li Q. , , and Fan S. , 2011: Impacts of urban processes and urbanization on summer precipitation: A case study of heavy rainfall in Beijing on 1 August 2006. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 50, 806825.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Milly, P. C. D., , Betancourt J. , , Falkenmark M. , , Hirsch R. M. , , Kundzewicz Z. W. , , Lettenmaier D. P. , , and Stouffer R. J. , 2008: Stationarity is dead: Whither water management? Science, 319, 573574.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Mote, T. L., , Lacke M. C. , , and Shepherd J. M. , 2007: Radar signatures of the urban effect on precipitation distribution: A case study for Atlanta, Georgia. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L20710, doi:10.1029/2007GL031903.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ntelekos, A. A., , Smith J. A. , , and Krajewski W. F. , 2007: Climatological analyses of thunderstorms and flash floods in the Baltimore metropolitan region. J. Hydrometeor., 8, 88101.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ntelekos, A. A., , Smith J. A. , , Baeck M. L. , , Krajewski W. F. , , Miller A. J. , , and Goska R. , 2008: Extreme hydrometeorological events and the urban environment: Dissecting the 7 July 2004 thunderstorm over the Baltimore, MD, metropolitan region. Water Resour. Res., 44, W08446, doi:10.1029/2007WR006346.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Praskievicz, S., , and Chang H. , 2009: A review of hydrological modelling of basin-scale climate change and urban development impacts. Prog. Phys. Geogr., 33, 650671.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Reed, S. M., , and Maidment D. R. , 1999: Coordinate transformation for using NEXRAD data in GIS-based hydrologic modeling. J. Hydrol. Eng., 4, 174182.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ryzhkov, A. V., , Giangrande S. E. , , and Schuur T. J. , 2005: Rainfall estimation with a polarimetric prototype of WSR-88D. J. Appl. Meteor., 44, 502515.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Semadeni-Davies, A., , Hernebring C. , , Svensson G. , , and Gustafsson L.-G. , 2008a: The impacts of climate change and urbanisation on drainage in Helsingborg, Sweden: Combined sewer system. J. Hydrol., 350, 100113.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Semadeni-Davies, A., , Hernebring C. , , Svensson G. , , and Gustafsson L.-G. , 2008b: The impacts of climate change and urbanisation on drainage in Helsingborg, Sweden: Suburban stormwater. J. Hydrol., 350, 114125.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Sen, P. K., 1968: Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall's tau. J. Amer. Stat. Assoc., 63, 13791389.

  • Seo, B. C., , Krajewski W. F. , , Kruger A. , , Domaszczynski P. , , Smith J. A. , , and Steiner M. , 2010: Radar-rainfall estimation algorithms of Hydro-NEXRAD. J. Hydroinf., 13, 277291.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Seo, D. J., , Breidenbach J. P. , , and Johnson E. R. , 1999: Real-time estimation of mean field bias in radar rainfall data. J. Hydrol., 223, 131147.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Shepherd, J. M., 2005: A review of the current investigations of urban-induced rainfall and recommendations for the future. Earth Interact., 9, doi:10.1175/EI156.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Shepherd, J. M., , Pierce H. , , and Negri A. J. , 2002: Rainfall modification by major urban areas: Observations from spaceborne rain radar on the TRMM satellite. J. Appl. Meteor., 41, 689701.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Shepherd, J. M., , Carter M. , , Manyin M. , , Messen D. , , and Burian S. , 2010: The impact of urbanization on current and future coastal precipitation: A case study for Houston. Environ. Plann., 37B, 284304.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Sivapalan, M., 2005: Linking flood frequency to long-term water balance: Incorporating effects of seasonality. Water Resour. Res., 41, W06012, doi:10.1029/2004WR003439.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Smith, J. A., , and Krajewski W. F. , 1991: Estimation of the mean field bias of radar rainfall estimates. J. Appl. Meteor., 30, 397412.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Smith, J. A., , Baeck M. L. , , Steiner M. , , and Miller A. J. , 1996a: Catastrophic rainfall from an upslope thunderstorm in the central Appalachian: The Rapidan storm of June 27, 1995. Water Resour. Res., 32, 30993113, doi:10.1029/96WR02107.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Smith, J. A., , Seo D. J. , , Baeck M. L. , , and Hudlow M. D. , 1996b: An intercomparison study of NEXRAD precipitation estimates. Water Resour. Res., 32, 20352045, doi:10.1029/96WR00270.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Smith, J. A., , Baeck M. L. , , Morrison J. E. , , Sturdevant-Rees P. , , Turner-Gillespie D. F. , , and Bates P. D. , 2002: The regional hydrology of extreme floods in an urbanizing drainage basin. J. Hydrometeor., 3, 267282.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Smith, J. A., , Baeck M. L. , , Meierdiercks K. L. , , Nelson P. A. , , Miller A. J. , , and Holland E. J. , 2005: Field studies of the storm event hydrologic response in an urbanizing watershed. Water Resour. Res.,41, W10413, doi:10.1029/2004WR003712.

  • Smith, J. A., , Baeck M. L. , , Villarini G. , , and Krajewski W. F. , 2010: The hydrology and hydrometeorology of flooding in the Delaware River basin. J. Hydrometeor., 11, 841859.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Smith, J. A., , Villarini G. , , and Baeck M. L. , 2011: Mixture distributions and the climatology of extreme rainfall and flooding in the eastern United States. J. Hydrometeor., 12, 294309.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Smith, J. A., , Baeck M. L. , , Villarini G. , , Welty C. , , Miller A. J. , , and Krajewski W. , 2012: Analyses of a long-term high-resolution radar rainfall data set for the Baltimore metropolitan area. Water Resour. Res.,48, W04504, doi:10.1029/2011WR010641.

  • Steiner, M., , and Smith J. A. , 2002: Use of three-dimensional structure for automated detection and removal of nonprecipitating echoes in radar data. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 19, 673686.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Tapia, A., , Smith J. A. , , and Dixon M. , 1998: Estimation of convective rainfall from lightning observations. J. Appl. Meteor., 37, 14971509.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Villarini, G., , and Krajewski W. F. , 2010: Review of the different sources of uncertainty in single-polarization radar-based estimates of rainfall. Surv. Geophys., 31, 107129.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Villarini, G., , Serinaldi F. , , Smith J. A. , , and Krajewski W. F. , 2009a: On the stationarity of annual flood peaks in the continental United States during the 20th century. Water Resour. Res., 45, W08417, doi:10.1029/2008WR007645.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Villarini, G., , Smith J. A. , , Serinaldi F. , , Bales J. , , Bates P. D. , , and Krajewski W. F. , 2009b: Flood frequency analysis for nonstationary annual peak records in an urban drainage basin. Adv. Water Resour., 32, 12551266.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Villarini, G., , Smith J. A. , , Baeck M. L. , , and Krajewski W. F. , 2011a: Examining flood frequency distributions in the Midwest U.S. J. Amer. Water Resour. Assoc., 43, 447463.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Villarini, G., , Smith J. A. , , Baeck M. L. , , Vitolo R. , , Stephenson D. B. , , and Krajewski W. , 2011b: On the frequency of heavy rainfall for the Midwest of the United States. J. Hydrol., 400, 103120.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Villarini, G., , Smith J. A. , , Baeck M. L. , , Smith B. K. , , and Sturdevant-Rees P. , 2013a: Hydrologic analyses of the July 17–18, 1996, flood in Chicago and the role of urbanization. J. Hydrol. Eng., 18, 250259.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Villarini, G., , Smith J. A. , , and Vecchi G. A. , 2013b: Changing frequency of heavy rainfall over the central United States. J. Climate, 26, 351357.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Voss, R., , May W. , , and Roeckner E. , 2002: Enhanced resolution modelling study on anthropogenic climate change: Changes in extremes of the hydrological cycle. Int. J. Climatol., 22, 755777.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wright, D. B., , Smith J. A. , , Villarini G. , , and Baeck M. L. , 2012: The hydroclimatology of flash flooding in Atlanta. Water Resour. Res.,48, W04524, doi:10.1029/2011WR011371.

  • Yang, G., , Bowling L. C. , , Cherkauer K. A. , , Pijanowski B. C. , , and Niyogi D. , 2010: Hydroclimatic response of watersheds to urban intensity: An observational and modeling-based analysis for the White River basin, Indiana. J. Hydrometeor., 11, 122138.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Yang, L., , Smith J. A. , , Baeck M. L. , , Bou-Zeid E. , , Jessup S. M. , , Tian F. , , and Hu H. , 2013: Impact of urbanization on heavy convective precipitation under strong large-scale forcing: A case study over the Milwaukee–Lake Michigan region. J. Hydrometeor., in press.

  • Zhang, C. L., , Miao S. G. , , Li Q. C. , , Xia X. , , and Xuan C. Y. , 2009: Impacts of urban expansion and future green planting on summer precipitation in the beijing metropolitan area. J. Geophys. Res., 114, D02116, doi:10.1029/2008jd010328.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zhang, Y., , and Smith J. A. , 2003: Space–time variability of rainfall and extreme flood response in the Menomonee River basin, Wisconsin. J. Hydrometeor., 4, 506517.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 369 369 56
Full Text Views 25 25 4
PDF Downloads 17 17 7

Urbanization and Climate Change: An Examination of Nonstationarities in Urban Flooding

View More View Less
  • 1 Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China, and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey
  • | 2 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey
  • | 3 IIHR—Hydroscience and Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa
  • | 4 Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
© Get Permissions
Restricted access

Abstract

The authors examine the hydroclimatology, hydrometeorology, and hydrology of flooding in the Milwaukee metropolitan region of the upper midwestern United States. The objectives of this study are 1) to assess nonstationarities in flood frequency associated with urban transformation of land surface properties and climate change and 2) to examine how spatial heterogeneity in land surface properties and heavy rainfall climatology interact to determine floods in urbanizing areas. The authors focus on the Menomonee River basin, which drains much of the urban core of Milwaukee, and the adjacent Cedar Creek basin, where agricultural land use dominates. Results are based on analyses of bias-corrected, high-resolution (1-km2 spatial resolution and 15-min time resolution) radar rainfall fields that are developed using the Hydro-NEXRAD system, rainfall observations from a network of 21 rain gauges in the Milwaukee metropolitan region, and discharge observations from 11 U.S. Geological Survey stream gauging stations. Both annual flood peak magnitudes and annual peaks over threshold flood counts have increased for the Menomonee River basin during the past five decades, and these trends are accompanied by a transition of flood events dominated by snowmelt (March–April floods) to a regime in which warm season thunderstorms are the dominant flood-producing agents. The frequency of heavy rainfall events has increased significantly. The spatial distribution of rainfall for flood-producing storms in the Milwaukee study region exhibits striking spatial heterogeneity, with a maximum in the central portion of the Menomonee River basin. Storm event hydrologic response is determined by the interactions of spatial patterns of urbanization and rainfall distribution in the Menomonee River basin.

Corresponding author address: Long Yang, New Hydraulic Building, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China. E-mail: yanglong86123@hotmail.com

Abstract

The authors examine the hydroclimatology, hydrometeorology, and hydrology of flooding in the Milwaukee metropolitan region of the upper midwestern United States. The objectives of this study are 1) to assess nonstationarities in flood frequency associated with urban transformation of land surface properties and climate change and 2) to examine how spatial heterogeneity in land surface properties and heavy rainfall climatology interact to determine floods in urbanizing areas. The authors focus on the Menomonee River basin, which drains much of the urban core of Milwaukee, and the adjacent Cedar Creek basin, where agricultural land use dominates. Results are based on analyses of bias-corrected, high-resolution (1-km2 spatial resolution and 15-min time resolution) radar rainfall fields that are developed using the Hydro-NEXRAD system, rainfall observations from a network of 21 rain gauges in the Milwaukee metropolitan region, and discharge observations from 11 U.S. Geological Survey stream gauging stations. Both annual flood peak magnitudes and annual peaks over threshold flood counts have increased for the Menomonee River basin during the past five decades, and these trends are accompanied by a transition of flood events dominated by snowmelt (March–April floods) to a regime in which warm season thunderstorms are the dominant flood-producing agents. The frequency of heavy rainfall events has increased significantly. The spatial distribution of rainfall for flood-producing storms in the Milwaukee study region exhibits striking spatial heterogeneity, with a maximum in the central portion of the Menomonee River basin. Storm event hydrologic response is determined by the interactions of spatial patterns of urbanization and rainfall distribution in the Menomonee River basin.

Corresponding author address: Long Yang, New Hydraulic Building, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China. E-mail: yanglong86123@hotmail.com
Save