• Abild, J., , Andersen E. Y. , , and Rosbjerg D. , 1992: The climate of extreme winds at the Great Belt, Denmark. J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerodyn., 41, 521532, doi:10.1016/0167-6105(92)90458-M.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Alcântara, C. R., , Silva Dias M. A. F. , , Souza E. P. , , and Cohen J. C. P. , 2011: Verification of the role of the low level jets in Amazon squall lines. Atmos. Res., 100, 3644, doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2010.12.023.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • An, Y., , and Pandey M. D. , 2005: A comparison of methods of extreme wind speed estimation. J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerodyn., 93, 535545, doi:10.1016/j.jweia.2005.05.003.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Brito, A., , Veiga J. , , and Yoshida M. , 2014: Extreme rainfall events over the Amazon basin produce significant quantities of rain relative to the rainfall climatology. Atmos. Climate Sci., 4, 179191, doi:10.4236/acs.2014.42021.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Broccoli, A. J., , Dahl K. A. , , and Stouffer R. J. , 2006: Response of the ITCZ to Northern Hemisphere cooling. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L01702, doi:10.1029/2005GL024546.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Carvalho, L. M. V., , Jones C. , , and Silva Dias M. A. F. , 2002: Intraseasonal large-scale circulations and mesoscale convective activity in tropical South America during the TRMM-LBA campaign, J. Geophys. Res.,107, 8042, doi:10.1029/2001JD000745.

  • Carvalho, L. M. V., , Jones C. , , and Liebmann B. , 2004: The South Atlantic convergence zone: Intensity, form, persistence, and relationships with intraseasonal to interannual activity and extreme rainfall. J. Climate, 17, 88108, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<0088:TSACZI>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Chen, B., , Lin X. , , and Bacmeister J. T. , 2008: Frequency distribution of daily ITCZ patterns over the western-central Pacific. J. Climate, 21, 42074222, doi:10.1175/2008JCLI1973.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Cohen, J. C. P., , Silva Dias M. A. F. , , and Nobre C. A. , 1995: Environmental conditions associated with Amazonian squall lines: A case study. Mon. Wea. Rev., 123, 31633174, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1995)123<3163:ECAWAS>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Da Rocha, R. P., , Morales C. A. , , Cuadra S. V. , , and Ambrizzi T. , 2009: Precipitation diurnal cycle and summer climatology assessment over South America: An evaluation of Regional Climate Model version 3 simulations. J. Geophys. Res., 114, D10108, doi:10.1029/2008JD010212.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • de Oliveira Vieira, S., , Satyamurty P. , , and Andreoli R. V. , 2013: On the South Atlantic convergence zone affecting southern Amazonia in austral summer. Atmos. Sci. Lett., 14, 16, doi:10.1002/asl2.401.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • de Quadro, M. F. L., , da Silva Dias M. A. F. , , Herdies D. L. , , and de Gonçalves L. G. G. , 2012: Análise climatológica da precipitação e do transporte de umidade na região da ZCAS através da nova geração de reanálises. Rev. Bras. Meteor.,27, 152–162, doi:10.1590/S0102-77862012000200004.

  • de Souza, E. B., , and da Rocha E. J. P. , 2006: Diurnal variations of rainfall in Bragança-PA (eastern Amazon) during rainy season: Mean characteristics and extreme events. Rev. Bras. Meteor.,21 (3), 142–152.

  • de Souza, E. B., , Kayano M. T. , , and Ambrizzi T. , 2005: Intraseasonal and submonthly variability over the eastern Amazon and northeast Brazil during the autumn rainy season. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 81, 177191, doi:10.1007/s00704-004-0081-4.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • de Souza, E. B., and et al. , 2009: Precipitação sazonal sobre a Amazônia oriental no período chuvoso: Observações e simulações regionais com o RegCM3. Rev. Bras. Meteor.,24, 111–124, doi:10.1590/S0102-77862009000200001.

  • Espinoza, J. C., , Ronchail J. , , Frappart F. , , Lavado W. , , Santini W. , , and Guyot J. L. , 2013: The major floods in the Amazonas River and tributaries (western Amazon basin) during the 1970–2012 period: A focus on the 2012 flood. J. Hydrometeor., 14, 10001008, doi:10.1175/JHM-D-12-0100.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Fisher, R. A., , and Tippett L. H. C. , 1928: Limiting forms of the frequency distribution of the largest or smallest member of a sample. Proc. Cambridge Philos. Soc., 24, 180190, doi:10.1017/S0305004100015681.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Fu, R., , Dickinson R. E. , , Chen M. , , and Wang H. , 2001: How do tropical sea surface temperatures influence the seasonal distribution of precipitation in the equatorial Amazon? J. Climate, 14, 40034026, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<4003:HDTSST>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Garreaud, R. D., , and Wallace J. M. , 1997: The diurnal march of convective cloudiness over the Americas. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 31573171, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1997)125<3157:TDMOCC>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gloor, M., and et al. , 2013: Intensification of the Amazon hydrological cycle over the last two decades. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 17291733, doi:10.1002/grl.50377.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Grimm, A. M., 2011: Interannual climate variability in South America: Impacts on seasonal precipitation, extreme events and possible effects of climate change. Stochastic Environ. Res. Risk Assess., 25, 537554, doi:10.1007/s00477-010-0420-1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Jenkinson, A. F., 1955: The frequency distribution of the annual maximum (or minimum) of meteorological elements. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 81, 158171, doi:10.1002/qj.49708134804.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Liebmann, B., , and Marengo J. A. , 2001: Interannual variability of the rainy season and rainfall in the Brazilian Amazon basin. J. Climate, 14, 43084318, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<4308:IVOTRS>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lucio, P. S., 2004: Assessing HadCM3 Simulations from NCEP Reanalyses over Europe: Diagnostics of block-seasonal extreme temperature’s regimes. Global Planet. Change, 44, 3957, doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2004.06.004.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Maraun, D., , Rust H. W. , , and Osborn T. J. , 2009: The annual cycle of heavy precipitation across the United Kingdom: A model based on extreme value statistics. Int. J. Climatol., 29, 17311744, doi:10.1002/joc.1811.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Marengo, J. A., and et al. , 2012a: Recent developments on the South American monsoon system. Int. J. Climatol., 32, 121, doi:10.1002/joc.2254.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Marengo, J. A., , Tomasella J. , , Soares W. R. , , Alves L. M. , , and Nobre C. A. , 2012b: Extreme climatic events in the Amazon basin: Climatological and hydrological context of recent floods. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 107, 7385, doi:10.1007/s00704-011-0465-1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Marengo, J. A., , Alves L. M. , , Soares W. R. , , Rodriguez D. A. , , Camargo H. , , Riveros M. P. , , and Pabló A. D. , 2013a: Two contrasting severe seasonal extremes in tropical South America in 2012: Flood in Amazonia and drought in northeast Brazil. J. Climate, 26, 91379154, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00642.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Marengo, J. A., , Borma L. S. , , Rodriguez D. A. , , Pinho P. , , Soares W. R. , , and Alves L. M. , 2013b: Recent extremes of drought and flooding in Amazonia: Vulnerabilities and human adaptation. Amer. J. Climate Change, 2, 8796, doi:10.4236/ajcc.2013.22009.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Moura, M. N., , and Vitorino M. I. , 2012: Variabilidade da precipitação em tempo e espaço associada à Zona de Convergência Intertropical. Rev. Bras. Meteor.,27, 475–483, doi:10.1590/S0102-77862012000400010.

  • Nobre, C. A., , Sellers P. J. , , and Shukla J. , 1991: Amazonian deforestation and regional climate change. J. Climate, 4, 957988, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1991)004<0957:ADARCC>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Nobre, P., , and Shukla J. , 1996: Variations of sea surface temperature, wind stress, and rainfall over the tropical Atlantic and South America. J. Climate, 9, 24642479, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1996)009<2464:VOSSTW>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Palutikof, J. P., , Brabson B. B. , , Lister D. H. , , and Adcock S. T. , 1999: A review of methods to calculate extreme wind speeds. Meteor. Appl., 6, 119132, doi:10.1017/S1350482799001103.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Pickands, J., 1975: Statistical inference using extreme order statistics. Ann. Stat.,3 (1), 119–131, doi:10.1214/aos/1176343003.

  • Santos, E. B., , Lucio P. S. , , and Santos e Silva C. M. , 2015: Precipitation regionalization of the Brazilian Amazon. Atmos. Sci. Lett., doi:10.1002/asl2.535, in press.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Satyamurty, P., , da Costa C. P. W. , , Manzi A. O. , , and Candido L. A. , 2013: A quick look at the 2012 record flood in the Amazon basin. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 13961401, doi:10.1002/grl.50245.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Sena, J. Á., , Beser de Deus L. A. , , Freitas M. A. V. , , and Costa L. , 2012: Extreme events of droughts and floods in Amazonia: 2005 and 2009. Water Resour. Manage., 26, 16651676, doi:10.1007/s11269-012-9978-3.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Sharma, P., , Khare M. , , and Chakrabarti S. P. , 1999: Application of extreme value theory for predicting violations of air quality standards for an urban road intersection. Transp. Res., 4D, 201216, doi:10.1016/S1361-9209(99)00006-1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Smith, R. L., 1985: Maximum likelihood estimation in a class of nonregular cases. Biometrika, London, 72, 6790, doi:10.1093/biomet/72.1.67.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Souza, E. B., , Kayano M. T. , , Tota J. , , Pezzi L. , , Fisch G. , , and Nobre C. , 2000: On the influences of the El Niño, La Niña and Atlantic dipole pattern on the Amazonian rainfall during 1960–1998. Acta Amazon., 30, 305318.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Sugahara, S., , da Rocha R. P. , , and Silveira R. , 2009: Non-stationary frequency analysis of extreme daily rainfall in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Int. J. Climatol., 29, 13391349, doi:10.1002/joc.1760.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Vale, R., , Filizola N. , , Souza R. , , and Schongart J. , 2011: A cheia de 2009 na Amazônia Brasileira. Rev. Bras. Geocienc.,41 (4), 577–586.

  • WMO, 1989: Calculation of monthly and annual 30-year standard normal. WMO/TD-341, WCDP-10, 12 pp.

  • Zhou, J., , and Lau K.-M. , 1998: Does a monsoon climate exist over South America? J. Climate, 11, 10201040, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<1020:DAMCEO>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 128 128 20
PDF Downloads 106 106 15

Seasonal Analysis of Return Periods for Maximum Daily Precipitation in the Brazilian Amazon

View More View Less
  • 1 Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ciências Climáticas, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Natal, Brazil
© Get Permissions
Restricted access

Abstract

The aim of this study is to estimate the return period of maximum daily precipitation for each season of the year in different subregions of the Brazilian Amazon. For this, the extreme value theory was used, through the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD). The GEV distribution and GPD were applied in precipitation series from homogeneous regions of the Brazilian Amazon. The GEV and GPD goodness of fit were evaluated by the application of the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test, which compares the cumulative empirical distributions with theoretical ones. The KS test results indicate that the tested distributions have a good fit, particularly the GEV distribution. Thus, they are adequate to study the seasonal maximum daily precipitation. The results indicate that extremes of more intense rainfall are expected during the rainy or transition seasons of each subregion. Using the GEV distribution (GPD), a daily total of 146.1 (201.6), 143.1 (209.5), and 109.4 (152.4) mm is expected at least once a year in the south, at the Atlantic coast in the Amazon catchment, and in the northwest of the Brazilian Amazon, respectively.

Corresponding author address: Eliane Barbosa Santos, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ciências Climáticas, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Campus Universitário Lagoa nova, caixa postal 1524, 59078-970 Natal-RN, Brazil. E-mail: elianbs@gmail.com

Abstract

The aim of this study is to estimate the return period of maximum daily precipitation for each season of the year in different subregions of the Brazilian Amazon. For this, the extreme value theory was used, through the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD). The GEV distribution and GPD were applied in precipitation series from homogeneous regions of the Brazilian Amazon. The GEV and GPD goodness of fit were evaluated by the application of the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test, which compares the cumulative empirical distributions with theoretical ones. The KS test results indicate that the tested distributions have a good fit, particularly the GEV distribution. Thus, they are adequate to study the seasonal maximum daily precipitation. The results indicate that extremes of more intense rainfall are expected during the rainy or transition seasons of each subregion. Using the GEV distribution (GPD), a daily total of 146.1 (201.6), 143.1 (209.5), and 109.4 (152.4) mm is expected at least once a year in the south, at the Atlantic coast in the Amazon catchment, and in the northwest of the Brazilian Amazon, respectively.

Corresponding author address: Eliane Barbosa Santos, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ciências Climáticas, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Campus Universitário Lagoa nova, caixa postal 1524, 59078-970 Natal-RN, Brazil. E-mail: elianbs@gmail.com
Save