• Addor, N., , Jaun S. , , Fundel F. , , and Zappa M. , 2011: An operational hydrological ensemble prediction system for the city of Zurich (Switzerland): Skill, case studies and scenarios. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 23272347, doi:10.5194/hess-15-2327-2011.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Andreadis, K. M., , and Lettenmaier D. P. , 2006: Assimilating remotely sensed snow observations into a macroscale hydrology model. Adv. Water Resour., 29, 872886, doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2005.08.004.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Aubert, D., , Loumagne C. , , and Oudin L. , 2003: Sequential assimilation of soil moisture and streamflow data in a conceptual rainfall–runoff model. J. Hydrol., 280, 145161, doi:10.1016/S0022-1694(03)00229-4.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Begert, M., , Schlegel T. , , and Kirchhofer W. , 2005: Homogeneous temperature and precipitation series of Switzerland from 1864 to 2000. Int. J. Climatol., 25, 6580, doi:10.1002/joc.1118.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bernhard, L., , and Zappa M. , 2012: Schlussbericht CCHydrologie: Natürlicher Wasserhaushalt der Schweiz und ihrer bedeutendsten Grosseinzugsgebiete. WSL Tech. Rep., 84 pp.

  • Blanc, P., , and Schaedler B. , 2014: Water in Switzerland—An overview. Swiss Hydrological Commission Rep., 28 pp.

  • Brocca, L., , Melone F. , , Moramarco T. , , Wagner W. , , Naeimi V. , , Bartalis Z. , , and Hasenauer S. , 2010: Improving runoff prediction through the assimilation of the ASCAT soil moisture product. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 18811893, doi:10.5194/hess-14-1881-2010.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Clark, M. P., , Slater A. G. , , Barrett A. P. , , Hay L. E. , , McCabe G. J. , , Rajagopalan B. , , and Leavesley G. H. , 2006: Assimilation of snow covered area information into hydrologic and land-surface models. Adv. Water Resour., 29, 12091221, doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2005.10.001.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Cloke, H. L., , and Pappenberger F. , 2009: Ensemble flood forecasting: A review. J. Hydrol., 375, 613626, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.06.005.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dale, M., , Wicks J. , , Mylne K. , , Pappenberger F. , , Laeger S. , , and Taylor S. , 2014: Probabilistic flood forecasting and decision-making: An innovative risk-based approach. Nat. Hazards, 70, 159172, doi:10.1007/s11069-012-0483-z.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Demargne, J., and et al. , 2014: The science of NOAA’s Operational Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95, 7998, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00081.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Demirel, M. C., , Booij M. J. , , and Hoekstra A. Y. , 2013: Effect of different uncertainty sources on the skill of 10 day ensemble low flow forecasts for two hydrological models. Water Resour. Res., 49, 40354053, doi:10.1002/wrcr.20294.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dietz, A. J., , Kuenzer C. , , Gessner U. , , and Dech S. , 2012: Remote sensing of snow—A review of available methods. Int. J. Remote Sens., 33, 40944134, doi:10.1080/01431161.2011.640964.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Evensen, G., 2007: Data Assimilation: The Ensemble Kalman Filter. Springer, 279 pp.

  • Frei, C., 2014: Interpolation of temperature in a mountainous region using nonlinear profiles and non-Euclidean distances. Int. J. Climatol., 34, 15851605, doi:10.1002/joc.3786.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Fundel, F., , and Zappa M. , 2011: Hydrological ensemble forecasting in mesoscale catchments: Sensitivity to initial conditions and value of reforecasts. Water Resour. Res., 47, W09520, doi:10.1029/2010WR009996.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Fundel, F., , Walser A. , , Liniger M. A. , , Frei C. , , and Appenzeller C. , 2010: Calibrated precipitation forecasts for a limited-area ensemble forecast system using reforecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 176189, doi:10.1175/2009MWR2977.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Fundel, F., , Jörg-Hess S. , , and Zappa M. , 2013: Monthly hydrometeorological ensemble prediction of streamflow droughts and corresponding drought indices. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 395407, doi:10.5194/hess-17-395-2013.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gruber, S., 2007: A mass-conserving fast algorithm to parameterize gravitational transport and deposition using digital elevation models. Water Resour. Res., 43, W06412, doi:10.1029/2006WR004868.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gurtz, J., , Baltensweiler A. , , and Lang H. , 1999: Spatially distributed hydrotope-based modelling of evapotranspiration and runoff in mountainous basins. Hydrol. Processes, 13, 27512768, doi:10.1002/(SICI)1099-1085(19991215)13:17<2751::AID-HYP897>3.0.CO;2-O.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gurtz, J., , Zappa M. , , Jasper K. , , Lang H. , , Verbunt M. , , Badoux A. , , and Vitvar T. , 2003: A comparative study in modelling runoff and its components in two mountainous catchments. Hydrol. Processes, 17, 297311, doi:10.1002/hyp.1125.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hargrove, W. W., , Hoffman F. M. , , and Hessburg P. F. , 2006: Mapcurves: A quantitative method for comparing categorical maps. J. Geogr. Syst., 8, 187–208, doi:10.1007/s10109-006-0025-x.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • He, M., , Hogue T. S. , , Margulis S. A. , , and Franz K. J. , 2012: An integrated uncertainty and ensemble-based data assimilation approach for improved operational streamflow predictions. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 815831, doi:10.5194/hess-16-815-2012.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hock, R., 1999: A distributed temperature-index ice- and snowmelt model including potential direct solar radiation. J. Glaciol., 45, 101111.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hüsler, F., , Jonas T. , , Riffler M. , , Musial J. P. , , and Wunderle S. , 2014: A satellite-based snow cover climatology (1985–2011) for the European Alps derived from AVHRR data. Cryosphere, 8, 7390, doi:10.5194/tc-8-73-2014.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Jonas, T., , Marty C. , , and Magnusson J. , 2009: Estimating the snow water equivalent from snow depth measurements in the Swiss Alps. J. Hydrol., 378, 161167, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.09.021.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Jörg-Hess, S., , Fundel F. , , Jonas T. , , and Zappa M. , 2014: Homogenisation of a gridded snow water equivalent climatology for alpine terrain: Methodology and applications. Cryosphere, 8, 471485, doi:10.5194/tc-8-471-2014.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Jörg-Hess, S., , Kempf S. B. , , Fundel F. , , and Zappa M. , 2015: The benefit of climatological and calibrated reforecast data for simulating hydrological droughts in Switzerland. Meteor. Appl., 22, 444458, doi:10.1002/met.1474.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kirchner, J. W., 2006: Getting the right answers for the right reasons: Linking measurements, analyses, and models to advance the science of hydrology. Water Resour. Res., 42, W03S04, doi:10.1029/2005WR004362.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kobierska, F., , Jonas T. , , Zappa M. , , Bavay M. , , Magnusson J. , , and Bernasconi S. M. , 2013: Future runoff from a partly glacierized watershed in central Switzerland: A two-model approach. Adv. Water Resour., 55, 204214, doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2012.07.024.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Köplin, N., , Viviroli D. , , Schdler B. , , and Weingartner R. , 2010: How does climate change affect mesoscale catchments in Switzerland? A framework for a comprehensive assessment. Adv. Geosci., 27, 111119, doi:10.5194/adgeo-27-111-2010.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Koster, R. D., , Mahanama S. P. P. , , Livneh B. , , Lettenmaier D. P. , , and Reichle R. H. , 2010: Skill in streamflow forecasts derived from large-scale estimates of soil moisture and snow. Nat. Geosci., 3, 613616, doi:10.1038/ngeo944.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Krause, P., , Boyle D. , , and Bäse F. , 2005: Comparison of different efficiency criteria for hydrological model assessment. Adv. Geosci., 5, 8997, doi:10.5194/adgeo-5-89-2005.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kruse, S., , and Seidl I. , 2013: Social capacities for drought risk management in Switzerland. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 34293441, doi:10.5194/nhess-13-3429-2013.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Liechti, K., , Zappa M. , , Fundel F. , , and Germann U. , 2013: Probabilistic evaluation of ensemble discharge nowcasts in two nested alpine basins prone to flash floods. Hydrol. Processes, 27, 517, doi:10.1002/hyp.9458.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lindström, G., , Johansson B. , , Persson M. , , Gardelin M. , , and Bergström S. , 1997: Development and test of the distributed HBV-96 hydrological model. J. Hydrol., 201, 272288, doi:10.1016/S0022-1694(97)00041-3.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Magnusson, J., , Gustafsson D. , , Hüsler F. , , and Jonas T. , 2014: Assimilation of point SWE data into a distributed snow cover model comparing two contrasting methods. Water Resour. Res., 50, 7816–7835, doi:10.1002/2014WR015302.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Marty, R., , Zin I. , , and Obled C. , 2013: Sensitivity of hydrological ensemble forecasts to different sources and temporal resolutions of probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts: Flash flood case studies in the Cevennes–Vivarais region (southern France). Hydrol. Processes, 27, 3344, doi:10.1002/hyp.9543.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Mason, S. J., , and Weigel A. P. , 2009: A generic forecast verification framework for administrative purposes. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 331349, doi:10.1175/2008MWR2553.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Moradkhani, H., 2008: Hydrologic remote sensing and land surface data assimilation. Sensors, 8, 29863004, doi:10.3390/s8052986.

  • Nash, J., , and Sutcliffe J. , 1970: River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I—A discussion of principles. J. Hydrol., 10, 282290, doi:10.1016/0022-1694(70)90255-6.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Pappenberger, F., , Beven K. J. , , Hunter N. M. , , Bates P. D. , , Gouweleeuw B. T. , , Thielen J. , , and de Roo A. P. J. , 2005: Cascading model uncertainty from medium range weather forecasts (10 days) through a rainfall–runoff model to flood inundation predictions within the European flood forecasting system (EFFS). Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 381393, doi:10.5194/hess-9-381-2005.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ramos, M. H., , van Andel S. J. , , and Pappenberger F. , 2013: Do probabilistic forecasts lead to better decisions? Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 22192232, doi:10.5194/hess-17-2219-2013.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Rees, W. G., 2008: Comparing the spatial content of thematic maps. Int. J. Remote Sens., 29, 38333844, doi:10.1080/01431160701852088.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Schaefli, B., , and Gupta H. V. , 2007: Do Nash values have value? Hydrol. Processes, 21, 20752080, doi:10.1002/hyp.6825.

  • Schattan, P., , Zappa M. , , Lischke H. , , Bernhard L. , , Thurig E. , , and Diekkruger B. , 2013: An approach for transient consideration of forest change in hydrological impact studies. IAHS Publ, 359, 311319.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Seneviratne, S. I., and et al. , 2012: Swiss prealpine Rietholzbach research catchment and lysimeter: 32 year time series and 2003 drought event. Water Resour. Res., 48, W06526, doi:10.1029/2011WR011749.

  • Seneviratne, S. I., and et al. , 2013: Droughts in Switzerland (in German). Aqua Gas, 9, 3847.

  • Sevruk, B., Ed., 1986: Correction of Precipitation Measurements. ETH/IASH/WMO Workshop on the Correction of Precipitation Measurements, Vol. 23, ETH Zürich, 288 pp.

  • Shukla, S., , Voisin N. , , and Lettenmaier D. P. , 2012: Value of medium range weather forecasts in the improvement of seasonal hydrologic prediction skill. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 28252838, doi:10.5194/hess-16-2825-2012.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Slater, A. G., , and Clark M. P. , 2006: Snow data assimilation via an ensemble Kalman filter. J. Hydrometeor., 7, 478493, doi:10.1175/JHM505.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Speich, M. J. R., , Bernhard B. , , Teuling A. J. , , and Zappa M. , 2015: Application of bivariate mapping for hydrological classification and analysis of temporal change and scale effects in Switzerland. J. Hydrol., 523, 804821, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.01.086.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Su, H., , Yang Z. L. , , Niu G. Y. , , and Dickinson R. E. , 2008: Enhancing the estimation of continental-scale snow water equivalent by assimilating MODIS snow cover with the ensemble Kalman filter. J. Geophys. Res., 113, D08120, doi:10.1029/2007JD009232.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Tharme, R. E., 2003: A global perspective on environmental flow assessment: Emerging trends in the development and application of environmental flow methodologies for rivers. River Res. Appl., 19, 397441, doi:10.1002/rra.736.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Thirel, G., , Martin E. , , Mahfouf J.-F. , , Massart S. , , Ricci S. , , and Habets F. , 2010a: A past discharges assimilation system for ensemble streamflow forecasts over France—Part 1: Description and validation of the assimilation system. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 16231637, doi:10.5194/hess-14-1623-2010.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Thirel, G., , Martin E. , , Mahfouf J.-F. , , Massart S. , , Ricci S. , , Regimbeau F. , , and Habets F. , 2010b: A past discharge assimilation system for ensemble streamflow forecasts over France—Part 2: Impact on the ensemble streamflow forecasts. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 16391653, doi:10.5194/hess-14-1639-2010.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Thirel, G., , Salamon P. , , Burek P. , , and Kalas M. , 2013: Assimilation of MODIS snow cover area data in a distributed hydrological model using the particle filter. Remote Sens., 5, 58255850, doi:10.3390/rs5115825.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Verbunt, M., , Gurtz J. , , Jasper K. , , Lang H. , , Warmerdam P. , , and Zappa M. , 2003: The hydrological role of snow and glaciers in alpine river basins and their distributed modeling. J. Hydrol., 282, 3655, doi:10.1016/S0022-1694(03)00251-8.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Verbunt, M., , Walser A. , , Gurtz J. , , Montani A. , , and Schär C. , 2007: Probabilistic flood forecasting with a limited-area ensemble prediction system: Selected case studies. J. Hydrometeor., 8, 897909, doi:10.1175/JHM594.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Vitart, F., and et al. , 2008: The new VarEPS-monthly forecasting system: A first step towards seamless prediction. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 134, 17891799, doi:10.1002/qj.322.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Viviroli, D., , Mittelbach H. , , Gurtz J. , , and Weingartner R. , 2009a: Continuous simulation for flood estimation in ungauged mesoscale catchments of Switzerland—Part II: Parameter regionalisation and flood estimation results. J. Hydrol., 377, 208225, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.08.022.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Viviroli, D., , Zappa M. , , Gurtz J. , , and Weingartner R. , 2009b: An introduction to the hydrological modelling system PREVAH and its pre- and post-processing-tools. Environ. Modell. Software, 24, 12091222, doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2009.04.001.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Viviroli, D., , Zappa M. , , Schwanbeck J. , , Gurtz J. , , and Weingartner R. , 2009c: Continuous simulation for flood estimation in ungauged mesoscale catchments of Switzerland—Part I: Modelling framework and calibration results. J. Hydrol., 377, 191207, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.08.023.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Weigel, A. P., , and Mason S. J. , 2011: The generalized discrimination score for ensemble forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 30693074, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-10-05069.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wilks, D. S., 2006: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. 2nd ed. Academic Press, 627 pp.

  • Zappa, M., , and Kan C. , 2007: Extreme heat and runoff extremes in the Swiss Alps. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 7, 375389, doi:10.5194/nhess-7-375-2007.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zappa, M., , Pos F. , , Strasser U. , , Warmerdam P. , , and Gurtz J. , 2003: Seasonal water balance of an alpine catchment as evaluated by different methods for spatially distributed snowmelt modelling. Nord. Hydrol., 34, 179202.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zappa, M., and et al. , 2008: MAP D-PHASE: Real-time demonstration of hydrological ensemble prediction systems. Atmos. Sci. Lett., 9, 8087, doi:10.1002/asl.183.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zappa, M., , Jaun S. , , Germann U. , , Walser A. , , and Fundel F. , 2011: Superposition of three sources of uncertainties in operational flood forecasting chains. Atmos. Res., 100, 246262, doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2010.12.005.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zappa, M., , Bernhard L. , , Fundel F. , , and Jörg-Hess S. , 2012: Forecasts and scenarios of snow and water resources in alpine environments (in German). Forum für Wissen 2012, Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, 19–27.

  • Zappa, M., , Bernhard L. , , Spirig C. , , Stahl K. , , Seidl I. , , and Stähli M. , 2014: A prototype platform for water resources monitoring and early recognition of critical droughts in Switzerland. IAHS Publ., 364, 492–498.

All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 103 103 30
PDF Downloads 53 53 15

Probabilistic Forecasts of Snow Water Equivalent and Runoff in Mountainous Areas

View More View Less
  • 1 Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL), Birmensdorf, Switzerland
  • | 2 WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research (SLF), Davos, Switzerland
  • | 3 Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL), Birmensdorf, Switzerland
© Get Permissions
Restricted access

Abstract

Good initial states can improve the skill of hydrological ensemble predictions. In mountainous regions such as Switzerland, snow is an important component of the hydrological system. Including estimates of snow cover in hydrological models is of great significance for the prediction of both flood and streamflow drought events. In this study, gridded snow water equivalent (SWE) maps, derived from daily snow depth measurements, are used within the gridded version of the conceptual hydrological model Precipitation Runoff Evapotranspiration Hydrotope (PREVAH) to replace the model SWE at initialization. The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System (ENS) reforecast is used as meteorological input for 32-day forecasts of streamflow and SWE. Experiments were performed in several parts of the Alpine Rhine and the Thur River. Predictions where modeled SWE estimates were replaced with SWE maps could successfully enhance the predictability of SWE up to a lead time of 25 days, especially at the beginning and the end of the snow season. Additionally, the prediction of the runoff volume was improved, particularly in catchments where the snow accumulation, and thus the runoff volume, had been greatly overestimated. These improvements in predictions have been made without affecting the ability of the forecast system to discriminate between the different runoff volumes observed. A spatial similarity score was first used in the context of SWE forecast verification. This confirmed the findings of the time series analysis and yielded additional insight on regional patterns of extended range SWE predictability.

Supplemental information related to this paper is available at the Journals Online website: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-14-0193.s1.

Corresponding author address: Stefanie Jörg-Hess, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL), Zürcherstr. 111, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland. E-mail: s.joerg.hess@gmail.com

Abstract

Good initial states can improve the skill of hydrological ensemble predictions. In mountainous regions such as Switzerland, snow is an important component of the hydrological system. Including estimates of snow cover in hydrological models is of great significance for the prediction of both flood and streamflow drought events. In this study, gridded snow water equivalent (SWE) maps, derived from daily snow depth measurements, are used within the gridded version of the conceptual hydrological model Precipitation Runoff Evapotranspiration Hydrotope (PREVAH) to replace the model SWE at initialization. The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System (ENS) reforecast is used as meteorological input for 32-day forecasts of streamflow and SWE. Experiments were performed in several parts of the Alpine Rhine and the Thur River. Predictions where modeled SWE estimates were replaced with SWE maps could successfully enhance the predictability of SWE up to a lead time of 25 days, especially at the beginning and the end of the snow season. Additionally, the prediction of the runoff volume was improved, particularly in catchments where the snow accumulation, and thus the runoff volume, had been greatly overestimated. These improvements in predictions have been made without affecting the ability of the forecast system to discriminate between the different runoff volumes observed. A spatial similarity score was first used in the context of SWE forecast verification. This confirmed the findings of the time series analysis and yielded additional insight on regional patterns of extended range SWE predictability.

Supplemental information related to this paper is available at the Journals Online website: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-14-0193.s1.

Corresponding author address: Stefanie Jörg-Hess, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL), Zürcherstr. 111, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland. E-mail: s.joerg.hess@gmail.com

Supplementary Materials

    • Supplemental Materials (PDF 589.86 KB)
Save