Drought in the Pacific Northwest, 1920–2013

Mu Xiao Department of Geography, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California

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Bart Nijssen Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington

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Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department of Geography, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California

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Abstract

The severity–area–duration (SAD) method is used in conjunction with the Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC) to identify the major historical total moisture (TM; soil moisture plus snow water equivalent) droughts over the Pacific Northwest region, defined as the Columbia River basin and the region’s coastal drainages, for the period 1920–2013. The motivation is to understand how droughts identified using TM (a measure similar to that used in the U.S. Drought Monitor) relate to sector-specific drought measures that are more relevant to users. It is found that most of the SAD space is dominated by an extended drought period during the 1930s, although the most severe shorter droughts are in the 1970s (1976–78) and early 2000s (2000–04). The impact of the three severe TM droughts that dominate most of the SAD space are explored in terms of sector-specific measures relevant to dryland and irrigated agriculture, hydropower generation, municipal water supply, and recreation. It is found that in many cases the most severe droughts identified using the SAD method also appear among the most severe sector-specific droughts; however, there are important exceptions. Two types of inconsistencies are examined and the nature of the conditions that give rise to them are explored.

Denotes Open Access content.

Corresponding author address: Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Department of Geography, University of California, Los Angeles, 1255 Bunche Hall, P.O. Box 951524, Los Angeles, CA 90095. E-mail: dlettenm@ucla.edu

Abstract

The severity–area–duration (SAD) method is used in conjunction with the Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC) to identify the major historical total moisture (TM; soil moisture plus snow water equivalent) droughts over the Pacific Northwest region, defined as the Columbia River basin and the region’s coastal drainages, for the period 1920–2013. The motivation is to understand how droughts identified using TM (a measure similar to that used in the U.S. Drought Monitor) relate to sector-specific drought measures that are more relevant to users. It is found that most of the SAD space is dominated by an extended drought period during the 1930s, although the most severe shorter droughts are in the 1970s (1976–78) and early 2000s (2000–04). The impact of the three severe TM droughts that dominate most of the SAD space are explored in terms of sector-specific measures relevant to dryland and irrigated agriculture, hydropower generation, municipal water supply, and recreation. It is found that in many cases the most severe droughts identified using the SAD method also appear among the most severe sector-specific droughts; however, there are important exceptions. Two types of inconsistencies are examined and the nature of the conditions that give rise to them are explored.

Denotes Open Access content.

Corresponding author address: Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Department of Geography, University of California, Los Angeles, 1255 Bunche Hall, P.O. Box 951524, Los Angeles, CA 90095. E-mail: dlettenm@ucla.edu
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