Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

Model Performance of Downscaling 1999–2004 Hydrometeorological Fields to the Upper Rio Grande Basin Using Different Forcing Datasets

J. Li Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Henry Samueli School of Engineering, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, California

Search for other papers by J. Li in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
,
X. Gao Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Henry Samueli School of Engineering, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, California

Search for other papers by X. Gao in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
, and
S. Sorooshian Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Henry Samueli School of Engineering, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, California

Search for other papers by S. Sorooshian in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
Print Publication:
01 Aug 2008
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JHM912.1
Page(s):
677–694
Restricted access

Abstract

This study downscaled more than five years of data (1999–2004) for hydrometeorological fields over the upper Rio Grande basin (URGB) to a 4-km resolution using a regional model [fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5, version 3)] and two forcing datasets that include National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)–NCAR reanalysis-1 (R1) and North America Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data. The long-term high-resolution simulation results show detailed patterns of hydroclimatological fields that are highly related to the characteristics of the regional terrain; the most important of these patterns are precipitation localization features caused by the complex topography. In comparison with station observational data, the downscaling processing, on whichever forcing field is used, generated more accurate surface temperature and humidity fields than the Eta Model and NARR data, although it still included marked errors, such as a negative (positive) bias toward the daily maximum (minimum) temperature and overestimated precipitation, especially in the cold season.

Comparing the downscaling results forced by the NARR and R1 with both the gridded and station observational data shows that under the NARR forcing, the MM5 model produced generally better results for precipitation, temperature, and humidity than it did under the R1 forcing. These improvements were more apparent in winter and spring. During the warm season, although the use of NARR improved the precipitation estimates statistically at the regional (basin) scale, it substantially underestimated them over the southern upper Rio Grande basin, partly because the NARR forcing data exhibited warm and dry biases in the monsoon-active region during the simulation period and improper domain selection. Analyses also indicate that over mountainous regions, both the Climate Prediction Center’s (CPC’s) gridded (0.25°) and NARR forcings underestimate precipitation in comparison with station gauge data.

Corresponding author address: Jialun Li, CHRS, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697-2175. Email: jialunl@uci.edu

Abstract

This study downscaled more than five years of data (1999–2004) for hydrometeorological fields over the upper Rio Grande basin (URGB) to a 4-km resolution using a regional model [fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5, version 3)] and two forcing datasets that include National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)–NCAR reanalysis-1 (R1) and North America Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data. The long-term high-resolution simulation results show detailed patterns of hydroclimatological fields that are highly related to the characteristics of the regional terrain; the most important of these patterns are precipitation localization features caused by the complex topography. In comparison with station observational data, the downscaling processing, on whichever forcing field is used, generated more accurate surface temperature and humidity fields than the Eta Model and NARR data, although it still included marked errors, such as a negative (positive) bias toward the daily maximum (minimum) temperature and overestimated precipitation, especially in the cold season.

Comparing the downscaling results forced by the NARR and R1 with both the gridded and station observational data shows that under the NARR forcing, the MM5 model produced generally better results for precipitation, temperature, and humidity than it did under the R1 forcing. These improvements were more apparent in winter and spring. During the warm season, although the use of NARR improved the precipitation estimates statistically at the regional (basin) scale, it substantially underestimated them over the southern upper Rio Grande basin, partly because the NARR forcing data exhibited warm and dry biases in the monsoon-active region during the simulation period and improper domain selection. Analyses also indicate that over mountainous regions, both the Climate Prediction Center’s (CPC’s) gridded (0.25°) and NARR forcings underestimate precipitation in comparison with station gauge data.

Corresponding author address: Jialun Li, CHRS, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697-2175. Email: jialunl@uci.edu

Save
Cover Journal of Hydrometeorology
Journal of Hydrometeorology

  • Anderson, B. T., and Roads J. O. , 2002: Regional simulation of summertime precipitation over the southwestern United States. J. Climate, 15 , 3321–3342.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Anderson, B. T., Kanamaru H. , and Roads J. O. , 2004: The summertime atmospheric hydrologic cycle over the southwestern United States. J. Hydrometeor., 5 , 679–692.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Berbery, E. H., 2001: Mesoscale moisture analysis of the North American monsoon. J. Climate, 14 , 121–137.

  • Bright, D., and Mullen S. , 2002: The sensitivity of the numerical simulation of the southwest monsoon boundary layer to the choice of PBL turbulence parameterization in MM5. Wea. Forecasting, 17 , 99–114.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Chen, F., and Dudhia J. , 2001: Coupling an advanced land surface–hydrology model with the Penn State–NCAR MM5 modeling system. Part I: Model implementation and sensitivity. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129 , 569–585.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Cotton, W., McAnelly R. , Carrió G. , Mielke P. , and Hartzell C. , 2006: Simulations of snowpack augmentation in the Colorado Rocky Mountains. J. Wea. Modif., 38 , 58–65.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • de Ela, R., Laprise R. , and Denis B. , 2002: Forecasting skill limits of nested, limited-area models: A perfect-model approach. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130 , 2006–2023.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Dudhia, J., 1989: Numerical study of convection observed during the winter monsoon experiment using a mesoscale two-dimensional model. J. Atmos. Sci., 46 , 3077–3107.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Faccani, C., Ferretti R. , and Visconti G. , 2003: High-resolution weather forecasting over complex orography: Sensitivity to the assimilation of conventional data. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131 , 136–154.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Giorgi, F., 1991: Sensitivity of simulated summertime precipitation over the western United States to different physics parameterizations. Mon. Wea. Rev., 119 , 2870–2888.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Giorgi, F., Shields Brodeur C. , and Bates G. T. , 1994: Regional climate change scenarios over the United States produced with a nested regional climate model. J. Climate, 7 , 375–399.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Gochis, D. J., Shuttleworth W. J. , and Yang Z-L. , 2003: Hydrometeorological response of the modeled North American monsoon to convective parameterization. J. Hydrometeor., 4 , 235–250.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Grell, G. A., 1993: Prognostic evaluation of assumptions used by cumulus parameterizations. Mon. Wea. Rev., 121 , 764–787.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Higgins, R. W., Chen Y. , and Douglas A. V. , 1999: Interannual variability of the North American warm season precipitation regime. J. Climate, 12 , 653–680.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Hong, S-Y., and Pan H-L. , 1996: Nonlocal boundary layer vertical diffusion in a medium-range forecast model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 124 , 2322–2339.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Kain, J. S., and Fritsch J. M. , 1990: A one-dimensional entraining/detraining plume model and its application in convective parameterization. J. Atmos. Sci., 47 , 2784–2802.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Kalnay, E., and Coauthors, 1996: The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77 , 437–471.

  • Kanamitsu, M., and Mo K. C. , 2003: Dynamical effect of land surface processes on summer precipitation over the southwestern United States. J. Climate, 16 , 496–509.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Kim, J., Miller N. , Farrara J. , and Hong S-Y. , 2000: A seasonal precipitation and stream flow hindcast and prediction study in the western United States during the 1997/98 winter season using a dynamic downscaling system. J. Hydrometeor., 1 , 311–329.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Leung, L. R., and Qian Y. , 2003: The sensitivity of precipitation and snowpack simulations to model resolution via nesting in regions of complex terrain. J. Hydrometeor., 4 , 1025–1043.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Leung, L. R., Qian Y. , and Bian X. , 2003: Hydroclimate of the western United States based on observations and regional climate simulation of 1981–2000. Part I: Seasonal statistics. J. Climate, 16 , 1892–1911.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Li, J., Gao X. , Maddox R. A. , Sorooshian S. , and Hsu K. , 2003a: Summer weather simulation for the semiarid lower Colorado River basin: Case tests. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131 , 521–541.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Li, J., Maddox R. A. , Gao X. , Sorooshian S. , and Hsu K. , 2003b: A numerical investigation of storm structure and evolution during the July 1999 Las Vegas flash flood. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131 , 2038–2059.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Li, J., Gao X. , Maddox R. A. , and Sorooshian S. , 2005: Sensitivity of North American monsoon rainfall to multisource sea surface temperatures in MM5. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133 , 2922–2939.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Li, J., Gao X. , and Sorooshian S. , 2007: Modeling and analysis of the variability of the water cycle in the upper Rio Grande basin at high resolution. J. Hydrometeor.,, 8 , 805–824.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Liang, X-Z., Kunkel K. E. , and Samel A. N. , 2001: Development of a regional climate model for U.S. Midwest applications. Part I: Sensitivity to buffer zone treatment. J. Climate, 14 , 4363–4378.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Liang, X-Z., Li L. , Kunkel K. E. , Ting M. , and Wang J. X. L. , 2004: Regional climate model simulation of U.S. precipitation during 1982–2002. Part I: Annual cycle. J. Climate, 17 , 3510–3529.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Mesinger, F., and Coauthors, 2006: North American regional reanalysis. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 87 , 343–360.

  • Mo, K. C., Chelliah M. , Carrera M. L. , Higgins W. R. , and Ebisuzaki W. , 2005: Atmospheric moisture transport over the United States and Mexico as evaluated in the NCEP regional reanalysis. J. Hydrometeor., 6 , 710–728.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Mo, K. C., Schemm J. E. , Kim H. , and Higgins W. R. , 2006: Influence of initial conditions on summer precipitation simulations over the United States and Mexico. J. Climate, 19 , 3640–3658.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Nigam, S., and Ruiz-Barradas A. , 2006: Seasonal hydroclimate variability over North America in global and regional reanalysis and AMIP simulations: Varied representation. J. Climate, 19 , 815–837.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Qian, J-H., Seth A. , and Zebiak S. , 2003: Reinitialized versus continuous simulations for regional climate downscaling. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131 , 2857–2874.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Roads, J. O., Chen S-C. , Guetter A. K. , and Georgakakos K. P. , 1994: Large-scale aspects of the United States hydrologic cycle. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 75 , 1589–1610.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Roebber, P. J., Schultz D. M. , Colle B. A. , and Stensrud D. J. , 2004: Toward improved prediction: High-resolution and ensemble modeling system in operations. Wea. Forecasting, 19 , 936–949.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Saleeby, S., Cheng W. , and Cotton W. , 2007: New developments in the regional atmospheric modeling system suitable for simulations of snowpack augmentation over complex terrain. J. Wea. Modif., 39 , 37–49.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Schmitz, J. T., and Mullen S. L. , 1996: Water vapor transport associated with the summertime North American monsoon as depicted by ECMWF analyses. J. Climate, 9 , 1621–1634.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Seth, A., and Giorgi F. , 1998: The effects of domain choice on summer precipitation simulation and sensitivity in a regional climate model. J. Climate, 11 , 2698–2712.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Warner, T. T., and Hsu H-M. , 2000: Nested-model simulation of moist convection: The impact of coarse-grid parameterized convection on fine-grid resolved convection. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128 , 2211–2231.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Westrick, K. J., and Mass C. L. , 2001: An evaluation of a high-resolution hydrometeorological modeling system for prediction of a cool-season flood event in a coastal mountainous watershed. J. Hydrometeor., 2 , 161–180.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Westrick, K. J., Storck P. , and Mass C. F. , 2002: Description and evaluation of a hydrometeorological forecast system for mountainous watersheds. Wea. Forecasting, 17 , 250–262.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 83 31 1
PDF Downloads 47 12 0