Changes in Water Vapor Transport and the Production of Precipitation in the Eastern Fertile Crescent as a Result of Global Warming

J. P. Evans Department of Geology and Geophysics, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut

Search for other papers by J. P. Evans in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
Restricted access

Abstract

This study investigates changes in the types of storm events occurring in the Fertile Crescent as a result of global warming. Regional climate model [fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5)–Noah] simulations are run for the first and last five years of the twenty-first century following the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 experiment. Then the precipitation events are classified according to the water vapor fluxes that created them. At present most of the region’s precipitation is from westerly water vapor fluxes. Results indicate that the region will increasingly get its precipitation from large events that are dominated by southerly water vapor fluxes. The increase in these events will occur in the transition seasons, especially autumn.

Corresponding author address: Jason P. Evans, Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney NSW 2052, Australia. Email: jason.evans@unsw.edu.au

Abstract

This study investigates changes in the types of storm events occurring in the Fertile Crescent as a result of global warming. Regional climate model [fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5)–Noah] simulations are run for the first and last five years of the twenty-first century following the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 experiment. Then the precipitation events are classified according to the water vapor fluxes that created them. At present most of the region’s precipitation is from westerly water vapor fluxes. Results indicate that the region will increasingly get its precipitation from large events that are dominated by southerly water vapor fluxes. The increase in these events will occur in the transition seasons, especially autumn.

Corresponding author address: Jason P. Evans, Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney NSW 2052, Australia. Email: jason.evans@unsw.edu.au

Save
  • Ball, G. H., and Hall D. J. , 1967: A clustering technique for summarizing multivariate data. Behav. Sci., 12 , 153155.

  • Bengtsson, L., Hodges K. I. , and Roeckner E. , 2006: Storm tracks and climate change. J. Climate, 19 , 35183543.

  • Chen, F., and Mitchell K. , 1999: Using GEWEX/ISLSCP forcing data to simulate global soil moiture fields and hydrological cycle for 1987–1988. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 77 , 116.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Chen, F., and Dudhia J. , 2001: Coupling an advanced land surface–hydrology model with the Penn State–NCAR MM5 modeling system. Part II: Preliminary model validation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129 , 587604.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Collins, W. D., and Coauthors, 2006: The Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3). J. Climate, 19 , 21222143.

  • Dudhia, J., 1993: A nonhydrostatic version of the Penn State–NCAR mesoscale model: Validation tests and simulation of an Atlantic cyclone and cold front. Mon. Wea. Rev., 121 , 14931513.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Evans, J. P., 2008a: Global warming impact on the dominant precipitation processes in the Middle East. Theor. Appl. Climatol., in press.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Evans, J. P., 2008b: 21st century climate change in the Middle East. Climatic Change, doi:10.1007/s10584-008-9438-5.

  • Evans, J. P., and Smith R. B. , 2006: Water vapor transport and the production of precipitation in the eastern Fertile Crescent. J. Hydrometeor., 7 , 12951307.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Evans, J. P., Smith R. B. , and Oglesby R. J. , 2004: Middle East climate simulation and dominant precipitation processes. Int. J. Climatol., 24 , 16711694.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Evans, J. P., Oglesby R. J. , and Lapenta W. M. , 2005: Time series analysis of regional climate model performance. J. Geophys. Res., 110 .D04104, doi:10.1029/2004JD005046.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Grell, G. A., Dudhia J. , and Stauffer D. R. , 1994: A description of the fifth-generation Penn State/NCAR mesoscale model (MM5). NCAR Tech. Note NCAR/TN-398+STR, 117 pp.

  • Hong, S. Y., and Pan H. L. , 1996: Nonlocal boundary layer vertical diffusion in a medium-range forecast model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 124 , 23222339.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Jacquemin, B., and Noilhan J. , 1990: Sensitivity study and validation of a land surface parameterization using the HAPEX-MOBILHY data set. Bound.-Layer Meteor., 52 , 93134.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kistler, R., and Coauthors, 2001: The NCEP–NCAR 50-Year Reanalysis: Monthly means CD-ROM and documentation. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 82 , 247267.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lambert, S. J., and Fyfe J. C. , 2006: Changes in winter cyclone frequencies and strengths simulated in enhanced greenhouse warming experiments: Results from the models participating in the IPCC diagnostic exercise. Climate Dyn., 26 , 713728.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Mahrt, L., and Ek M. , 1984: The influence of atmospheric stability on potential evaporation. J. Climate Appl. Meteor., 23 , 222234.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Mahrt, L., and Pan H. L. , 1984: A two-layer model of soil hydrology. Bound.-Layer Meteor., 29 , 120.

  • Meehl, G. A., and Coauthors, 2006: Climate change projections for the twenty-first century and climate change commitment in the CCSM3. J. Climate, 19 , 25972616.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Min, S. K., and Hense A. , 2006: A Bayesian assessment of climate change using multimodel ensembles. Part I: Global mean surface temperature. J. Climate, 19 , 32373256.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Mlawer, E. J., Taubman S. J. , Brown P. D. , Iacono M. J. , and Clough S. A. , 1997: Radiative transfer for inhomogeneous atmospheres: RRTM, a validated correlated-k model for the longwave. J. Geophys. Res., 102 , 1666316682.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Nakicenovic, N., and Swart R. , 2000: Emission Scenarios. Cambridge University Press, 570 pp.

  • Pan, H. L., and Mahrt L. , 1987: Interaction beteen soil hydrology and boundary-layer development. Bound.-Layer Meteor., 38 , 185202.

  • Reisner, J., Rasmussen R. J. , and Bruintjes R. T. , 1998: Explicit forecasting of supercooled liquid water in winter storms using the MM5 mesoscale model. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 124 , 10711107.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Rodwell, M. J., and Hoskins B. J. , 1996: Monsoons and the dynamics of deserts. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 122 , 13851404.

  • Schaake, J. C., Koren V. I. , Duan Q. Y. , Mitchell K. , and Chen F. , 1996: A simple water balance model (SWB) for estimating runoff at different spatial and temporal scales. J. Geophys. Res., 101 , 74617475.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Staubwasser, M., and Weiss H. , 2006: Holocene climate and cultural evolution in late prehistoric–early historic West Asia. Quat. Res., 66 , 372387.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wang, G., 2005: Agricultural drought in a future climate: Results from 15 global climate models participating in the IPCC 4th assessment. Climate Dyn., 25 , 739753.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zaitchik, B. F., Evans J. , and Smith R. B. , 2005: MODIS-derived boundary conditions for a mesoscale climate model: Application to irrigated agriculture in the Euphrates basin. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133 , 17271743.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zaitchik, B. F., Evans J. P. , Geerken R. A. , and Smith R. B. , 2007a: Climate and vegetation in the Middle East: Interannual variability and drought feedbacks. J. Climate, 20 , 39243941.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zaitchik, B. F., Evans J. P. , and Smith R. B. , 2007b: Regional impact of an elevated heat source: The Zagros Plateau of Iran. J. Climate, 20 , 41334146.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 274 83 6
PDF Downloads 108 30 3