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Analysis of Hurricane Debbie Modification Results Using the Variational Optimization Approach

ROBERT C. SHEETSNational Hurricane Research Laboratory, NOAA, Miami, Fla.

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Abstract

A variational optimaization technique is used to develop an analysis scheme for application to the high energy portion of a hurricane. Derived analysis equations are used to filter the date in an attempt to obtain the signal for selected seales of motion. The selection of the particular filters used is based on empirical evidence. The analysis scheme is applied to data collected from airborne platforms in Hurricane Debbie of 1969 during two modification attempts. Results of these analyses are then used to define a more explicit seeding hypothesis, which can be used in the explanation and statistical evaluation of future seeding experiments. While it is felt that strong physical inferences can be drawn from the analysis results, more such data analyses are required before definitive statistical support can be claimed.

Abstract

A variational optimaization technique is used to develop an analysis scheme for application to the high energy portion of a hurricane. Derived analysis equations are used to filter the date in an attempt to obtain the signal for selected seales of motion. The selection of the particular filters used is based on empirical evidence. The analysis scheme is applied to data collected from airborne platforms in Hurricane Debbie of 1969 during two modification attempts. Results of these analyses are then used to define a more explicit seeding hypothesis, which can be used in the explanation and statistical evaluation of future seeding experiments. While it is felt that strong physical inferences can be drawn from the analysis results, more such data analyses are required before definitive statistical support can be claimed.

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