Abstract
Sixty years (1901–60) of mean monthly sea surface temperature (SST) and surface wind speed observations over the central Arabian Sea have been correlated with the observed mean monthly rainfall over India during the peak monsoon months of July and August. It is found that correlation coefficients between SST during July and rainfall over central and western India during August are positive and significant. Correlation coefficients between surface wind speed during July and rainfall during July are also found to be positive, but correlation coefficients between surface wind speed during July and rainfall during August are either negative or insignificant. Spatial homogeneity and statistical significance of correlation coefficients lends support to the hypothesis of a possible relationship between SST over central Arabian Sea and rainfall over central and western India.
Although we do not know the time scales of interaction between the Arabian sea and the Indian monsoon, the observations suggest that SST during July may be a useful parameter to estimate monsoon rainfall during August.
