Verification of the NMC 6–10 Day Temperature Outlook

Michael L. Branick Department of Atmospheric Science, Stage University of New York at Albany, Albany, NY 12222

Search for other papers by Michael L. Branick in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
and
Lance F. Bosart Department of Atmospheric Science, Stage University of New York at Albany, Albany, NY 12222

Search for other papers by Lance F. Bosart in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
Restricted access

We are aware of a technical issue preventing figures and tables from showing in some newly published articles in the full-text HTML view.
While we are resolving the problem, please use the online PDF version of these articles to view figures and tables.

Abstract

Verification has been completed for the NMC 6–10 day temperature outlook. The sample size involves 100 forecasts at each of 14 locations distributed uniformly across the continental United States. A separate regional analysis was performed at six locations in the northeastern United States.

The overall results indicate a marginal forecast skill versus climatology. Greatest skill is exhibited for much below normal forecasts which comprise 8% of all forecasts. Also, a conservative bias is observed in the outlook, as extreme temperature anomalies (i.e., much above and much below normal) are predicted less frequently than they are observed. The results also exhibit a striking similarity to the results of persistence-based forecasts, thus indicating that persistence is a principal source of guidance used in the forecast.

Abstract

Verification has been completed for the NMC 6–10 day temperature outlook. The sample size involves 100 forecasts at each of 14 locations distributed uniformly across the continental United States. A separate regional analysis was performed at six locations in the northeastern United States.

The overall results indicate a marginal forecast skill versus climatology. Greatest skill is exhibited for much below normal forecasts which comprise 8% of all forecasts. Also, a conservative bias is observed in the outlook, as extreme temperature anomalies (i.e., much above and much below normal) are predicted less frequently than they are observed. The results also exhibit a striking similarity to the results of persistence-based forecasts, thus indicating that persistence is a principal source of guidance used in the forecast.

Save