Article Type:
Research Article

A Probability Model for Severe Cyclonic Storms Striking the Coast around the Bay of Bengal

M. L. Thompson Department of Statistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195

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P. Guttorp Department of Statistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195

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Print Publication:
01 Nov 1986
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1986)114<2267:APMFSC>2.0.CO;2
Page(s):
2267–2271
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Abstract

We consider data on severe cyclonic storms striking the Day of Bengal coast during the period 1877–1977. In the literature these data have been modeled by a homogeneous Poisson process in which case times between storm occurrences are independent of one another, making prediction, and hence advance planning, impossible. We give some evidence against the adequacy of a Poisson process model and suggest a Poisson cluster model that appears to describe the data better. The features of fills model are such as to enable some planning procedures to he developed.

Abstract

We consider data on severe cyclonic storms striking the Day of Bengal coast during the period 1877–1977. In the literature these data have been modeled by a homogeneous Poisson process in which case times between storm occurrences are independent of one another, making prediction, and hence advance planning, impossible. We give some evidence against the adequacy of a Poisson process model and suggest a Poisson cluster model that appears to describe the data better. The features of fills model are such as to enable some planning procedures to he developed.

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