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Model Output Statistics Forecasts: Three Years of Operational Experience in the Netherlands

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  • 1 Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), de Bilt, The Netherlands
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Abstract

In the Netherlands, one to five day Model Output Statistics (MOS) forecasts have been used operationally since November 1983. The weather elements predicted are the probability of precipitation, the conditional probability of frozen precipitation, the probability of thunderstorms, the sunshine, maximum and minimum temperature and the maximum wind speed. For the development of the guidance system, two year of ECMWF data (December 1980–November 1982) were used, while a third year was available as a test period. The period December 1983–November 1986 has been used for verification. Operational forecasters have used the MOS forecast for the preparation of their final forecasts. The results of the MOS forecasts and of subjective forecasts are presented and intercompared in this paper. From this comparison it appears that the forecasters have higher skill scores only for Days 1 and 2; for Days 3, 4 and 5 the differences are, in general, small.

Abstract

In the Netherlands, one to five day Model Output Statistics (MOS) forecasts have been used operationally since November 1983. The weather elements predicted are the probability of precipitation, the conditional probability of frozen precipitation, the probability of thunderstorms, the sunshine, maximum and minimum temperature and the maximum wind speed. For the development of the guidance system, two year of ECMWF data (December 1980–November 1982) were used, while a third year was available as a test period. The period December 1983–November 1986 has been used for verification. Operational forecasters have used the MOS forecast for the preparation of their final forecasts. The results of the MOS forecasts and of subjective forecasts are presented and intercompared in this paper. From this comparison it appears that the forecasters have higher skill scores only for Days 1 and 2; for Days 3, 4 and 5 the differences are, in general, small.

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