A Simple Model of Over-forecasting

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  • 1 Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts
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Abstract

Probabilistic forecasts of the occurrence of precipitation have been used routinely in the United States since 1965. Studies of the reliability of such forecasts often show a tendency towards over-forecasting (i.e., for forecast probabilities to exceed observed relative frequencies). A simple model is described that explains over-forecasting in terms of an asymmetric loss function. The model is applied to some results of a previous study.

Abstract

Probabilistic forecasts of the occurrence of precipitation have been used routinely in the United States since 1965. Studies of the reliability of such forecasts often show a tendency towards over-forecasting (i.e., for forecast probabilities to exceed observed relative frequencies). A simple model is described that explains over-forecasting in terms of an asymmetric loss function. The model is applied to some results of a previous study.

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