An Exploratory Analysis of the Relationship between Tropical Storm Formation in the Western North Pacific and ENSO

Mark A. Lander University of Guam, Mangilao, Guam

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Abstract

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related variations in the observed character (e.g., annual storm totals, preferred genesis region, etc.) of the tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific are sought. With respect to annual storm totals, no ENSO signal is found; with respect to genesis region, a strong relationship is found between ENSO indices and the zonal displacement of the annual mean genesis locations. ENSO indices during the first half of the calendar year were found to be weakly predictive of the number and genesis locations of tropical cyclones occurring from July through December.

Abstract

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related variations in the observed character (e.g., annual storm totals, preferred genesis region, etc.) of the tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific are sought. With respect to annual storm totals, no ENSO signal is found; with respect to genesis region, a strong relationship is found between ENSO indices and the zonal displacement of the annual mean genesis locations. ENSO indices during the first half of the calendar year were found to be weakly predictive of the number and genesis locations of tropical cyclones occurring from July through December.

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