A Coherent Method of Stratification within a General Framework for Forecast Verification

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  • 1 Prediction and Evaluation Systems, Corvallis, Oregon
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Abstract

The general framework for forecast verification described by Murphy and Winkler embodies a statistical approach to the problem of assessing the quality of forecasts. This framework is based on the joint distribution of forecasts and observations, together with conditional and marginal distributions derived from decompositions of the underlying joint distribution. An augmented version of the original framework is outlined in this paper. The extended framework provides a coherent method of addressing the problem of stratification in this context and it can be used to assess forecast quality—and its various aspects–under specific meteorological conditions. Conceptual examples are presented to illustrate potential applications of this methodological framework. Some issues concerning the extended framework and its application to real-world verification problems arc discussed briefly.

Abstract

The general framework for forecast verification described by Murphy and Winkler embodies a statistical approach to the problem of assessing the quality of forecasts. This framework is based on the joint distribution of forecasts and observations, together with conditional and marginal distributions derived from decompositions of the underlying joint distribution. An augmented version of the original framework is outlined in this paper. The extended framework provides a coherent method of addressing the problem of stratification in this context and it can be used to assess forecast quality—and its various aspects–under specific meteorological conditions. Conceptual examples are presented to illustrate potential applications of this methodological framework. Some issues concerning the extended framework and its application to real-world verification problems arc discussed briefly.

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