Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

A Multiscale Numerical Study of Hurricane Andrew (1992). Part I: Explicit Simulation and Verification

Yubao Liu Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Search for other papers by Yubao Liu in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
,
Da-Lin Zhang Department of Meteorology, University of Maryland at College Park, College Park, Maryland

Search for other papers by Da-Lin Zhang in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
, and
M. K. Yau Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Search for other papers by M. K. Yau in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed Close
Print Publication:
01 Dec 1997
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1997)125<3073:AMNSOH>2.0.CO;2
Page(s):
3073–3093
Restricted access

Abstract

In this study, the inner-core structures of Hurricane Andrew (1992) are explicitly simulated using an improved version of the Penn State–NCAR nonhydrostatic, two-way interactive, movable, triply nested grid mesoscale model (MM5). A modified Betts–Miller cumulus parameterization scheme and an explicit microphysics scheme were used simultaneously to simulate the evolution of the larger-scale flows over the coarser-mesh domains. The intense storm itself is explicitly resolved over the finest-mesh domain using a grid size of 6 km and an explicit microphysics package containing prognostic equations for cloud water, ice, rainwater, snow, and graupel. The model is initialized with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction analysis enhanced by a modified moisture field. A model-generated tropical-storm-like vortex was also incorporated. A 72-h integration was made, which covers the stages from the storm’s initial deepening to a near–category 5 hurricane intensity and the landfall over Florida.

As verified against various observations and the best analysis, the model captures reasonably well the evolution and inner-core structures of the storm. In particular, the model reproduces the track, the explosive deepening rate (>1.5 hPa h−1), the minimum surface pressure of 919 hPa preceding landfall, the strong surface wind (>65 m s−1) near the shoreline, as well as the ring of maximum winds, the eye, the eyewall, the spiral rainbands, and other cloud features. Of particular significance is that many simulated kinematics, thermodynamics, and precipitation structures in the core regions compare favorably to previous observations of hurricanes.

The results suggest that it may be possible to predict reasonably the track, intensity, and inner-core structures of hurricanes from the tropical synoptic conditions if high grid resolution, realistic model physics, and proper initial vortices (depth, size, and intensity) in relation to their larger-scale conditions (e.g., SST, moisture content, and vertical shear in the lower troposphere) are incorporated.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Da-Lin Zhang, Department of Meteorology, University of Maryland at College Park, 3433 Computer and Space Sciences Bldg., College Park, MD 20742-2425.

Abstract

In this study, the inner-core structures of Hurricane Andrew (1992) are explicitly simulated using an improved version of the Penn State–NCAR nonhydrostatic, two-way interactive, movable, triply nested grid mesoscale model (MM5). A modified Betts–Miller cumulus parameterization scheme and an explicit microphysics scheme were used simultaneously to simulate the evolution of the larger-scale flows over the coarser-mesh domains. The intense storm itself is explicitly resolved over the finest-mesh domain using a grid size of 6 km and an explicit microphysics package containing prognostic equations for cloud water, ice, rainwater, snow, and graupel. The model is initialized with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction analysis enhanced by a modified moisture field. A model-generated tropical-storm-like vortex was also incorporated. A 72-h integration was made, which covers the stages from the storm’s initial deepening to a near–category 5 hurricane intensity and the landfall over Florida.

As verified against various observations and the best analysis, the model captures reasonably well the evolution and inner-core structures of the storm. In particular, the model reproduces the track, the explosive deepening rate (>1.5 hPa h−1), the minimum surface pressure of 919 hPa preceding landfall, the strong surface wind (>65 m s−1) near the shoreline, as well as the ring of maximum winds, the eye, the eyewall, the spiral rainbands, and other cloud features. Of particular significance is that many simulated kinematics, thermodynamics, and precipitation structures in the core regions compare favorably to previous observations of hurricanes.

The results suggest that it may be possible to predict reasonably the track, intensity, and inner-core structures of hurricanes from the tropical synoptic conditions if high grid resolution, realistic model physics, and proper initial vortices (depth, size, and intensity) in relation to their larger-scale conditions (e.g., SST, moisture content, and vertical shear in the lower troposphere) are incorporated.

Corresponding author address: Dr. Da-Lin Zhang, Department of Meteorology, University of Maryland at College Park, 3433 Computer and Space Sciences Bldg., College Park, MD 20742-2425.

Save
Cover Monthly Weather Review
Monthly Weather Review

  • Anthes, R. A., 1972: The development of asymmetries in a three-dimensional numerical model of tropical cyclone. Mon. Wea. Rev.,100, 461–476.

  • ——, 1982: Tropical Cyclones—Their Evolution, Structure and Effects. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 208 pp.

  • ——, E.-Y. Hsie, and Y.-H. Kuo, 1987: Description of the Penn State/NCAR mesoscale model version 4 (MM4). NCAR Tech. Note NCAR/TN-282, 66 pp. [Available from NCAR Publications Office, P. O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307-3000.].

  • Bender, M. A., R. Ross, R. E. Tuleya, and Y. Kurihara, 1993: Improvements in tropical cyclone track and intensity forecast using the GFDL initialization system. Mon. Wea. Rev.,121, 2046–2061.

  • Betts, A. K., and M. J. Miller, 1986: A new convective adjustment scheme. Part II: Single column tests using GATE wave, BOMEX, ATEX and Arctic air-mass data sets. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,112, 693–709.

  • Black, R. A., and J. Hallett, 1986: Observations of the distribution of ice in hurricanes. J. Atmos. Sci.,43, 802–822.

  • Blackadar, A. K., 1979: High resolution models of the planetary boundary layer. Advances in Environmental Science and Engineering, J. Pfafflin and E. Ziegler, Eds., Vol. 1, Gordon and Breach Science Publishers, 50–85.

  • Burpee, R. W., and M. L. Black, 1989: Temporal and spatial variation of rainfall near the centers of two tropical cyclones. Mon. Wea. Rev.,117, 2208–2218.

  • DeMaria, M., and J. D. Pickle, 1988: A simplified system of equations for simulation of tropical cyclones. J. Atmos. Sci.,45, 1542–1554.

  • Dudhia, J., 1993: A nonhydrostatic version of the Penn State–NCAR mesoscale model: Validation tests and simulation of an Atlantic cyclone and cold front. Mon. Wea. Rev.,121, 1493–1513.

  • Elsberry, R. L., 1979: Applications of tropical cyclone models. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.,60, 750–762.

  • Emanuel, K. A., 1986: An air-sea interaction theory for tropical cyclones. Part I: Steady-state maintenance. J. Atmos. Sci.,43, 585–604.

  • ——, 1988: The maximum intensity of hurricanes. J. Atmos. Sci.,45, 1143–1155.

  • Frank, W. M., 1977: The structure and energetics of the tropical cyclone. Part I: Storm structure. Mon. Wea. Rev.,105, 1119–1135.

  • Franklin, J. L., S. J. Lord, and F. D. Marks Jr., 1988: Dropwinsonde and radar observations of the eye of Hurricane Gloria. Mon. Wea. Rev.,116, 1237–1244.

  • ——, ——, S. E. Feuer, and F. D. Marks Jr., 1993: The kinematic structure of Hurricane Gloria (1985) determined from nested analyses of dropwindsonde and Doppler radar data. Mon. Wea. Rev.,121, 2433–2450.

  • Fujiyoshi, Y., T. Endoh, T. Yamada, K. Tsuboki, Y. Tachibana, and G. Wakahana, 1990: Determination of a Z–R relationship for snowfall using a radar and high sensitivity snow gauges. J. Appl. Meteor.,29, 147–152.

  • Gamache, J. F., R. A. Houze, and F. D. Marks, 1993: Dual-aircraft investigation of the inner core of Hurricane Norbert Part III: Water budget. J. Atmos. Sci.,50, 3221–3243.

  • Gray, W. M., 1979: Hurricanes: Their formation, structure, and likely role in the tropical circulation. Meteorology over the Tropical Oceans, D. B. Shaw, Ed., Roy. Meteor. Soc., 155–199.

  • ——, and D. J. Shea, 1973: The hurricanes inner core region II. Thermal stability and dynamic characteristics. J. Atmos. Sci.,30, 1565–1576.

  • Grell, G. A., J. Dudhia, and D. R. Stauffer, 1995: A description of the fifth generation Penn State/NCAR mesoscale model (MM5). NCAR Tech Note NCAR/TN-398+STR, 138 pp. [Available from NCAR Publications Office, P. O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307-3000.].

  • Hawkins, H. F., and S. M. Imbembo, 1976: The structure of a small, intense hurricane, Inez 1966. Mon. Wea. Rev.,104, 418–442.

  • Holland, G. J., and R. T. Merrill, 1984: On the dynamics of tropical cyclone structure changes. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,110, 723–745.

  • Holliday, C. R., and A. H. Thompson, 1979: Climatological characteristics of rapidly intensifing typhoons. Mon. Wea. Rev.,107, 1022–1034.

  • Houze, R. A., Jr., F. D. Marks Jr., and R. A. Black, 1992: Dual-aircraft investigation of the inner core of the Hurricane Norbert. Part II: Mesoscale distribution of ice particles. J. Atmos. Sci.,49, 943–962.

  • Jones, R. W., 1977: A nested grid for a three-dimensional model of tropical cyclone. J. Atmos. Sci.,34, 1528–1533.

  • Jorgensen, D. P., 1984a: Mesoscale and convective scale characteristics of nature hurricanes. Part I: General observations by aircraft. J. Atmos. Sci.,41, 1268–1285.

  • ——, 1984b: Mesoscale and convective scale characteristics of nature hurricanes. Part II: Inner core structure of Hurricane Allen (1980). J. Atmos. Sci.,41, 1287–1311.

  • ——, and P. T. Willis, 1982: A Z–R relationship for hurricanes. J. Appl. Meteor.,21, 356–366.

  • ——, E. J. Zipser, and M. A. LeMone, 1985: Vertical motions in intense hurricanes. J. Atmos. Sci.,42, 839–856.

  • Kain, J. S., and J. M. Fritsch, 1992: Convective parameterization for mesoscale models: The Kain–Fritsch scheme. The Representation of Cumulus Convection in Numerical Models, Meteor. Monogr., No. 46, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 165–170.

  • Kasahara, A., 1961: A numerical experiment on the development of tropical cyclone. J. Meteor.,18, 259–282.

  • Klemp, J. B., and R. B. Wilhelmson, 1978: Simulations of three-dimensional convective storm dynamics. J. Atmos. Sci.,35, 1070–1069.

  • Krishnamurti, T. N., D. Oosterhof, and N. Dignon, 1989: Hurricane prediction with a high-resolution global model. Mon. Wea. Rev.,117, 631–669.

  • ——, K. S. Yap, and D. K. Oosterhof, 1991: Sensitivity of tropical storm forecast to radiative destabilization. Mon. Wea. Rev.,119, 2176–2204.

  • ——, S. K. Bhowmik, D. Oosterhof, and G. Rohaly, 1995: Mesoscale signatures within the Tropics generated by physical initialization, Mon. Wea. Rev.,123, 2771–2790.

  • Kuo, H.-L., 1965: On formation and intensification of tropical cyclones through latent heat release by cumulus convection. J. Atmos. Sci.,22, 40–63.

  • ——, 1974: Further studies of the parameterization of the influence of cumulus convection on large-scale flow. J. Atmos. Sci.,31, 1232–1240.

  • Kurihara, Y., 1973: A scheme of moist convective adjustment. Mon. Wea. Rev.,101, 547–553.

  • ——, 1985: Numerical modeling of tropical cyclones. Advances in Geophysics, Vol. 28B, Academic Press, 255–280.

  • ——, and M. A. Bender, 1982: Structure and analysis of the eye of a numerically simulated tropical cyclone. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan,60, 381–395.

  • ——, ——, and R. Ross, 1993: An initialization scheme of hurricane models by vortex specification. Mon. Wea. Rev.,121, 2030–2045.

  • ——, ——, R. E. Tuleya, and R. Ross, 1995: Improvements in the GFDL hurricane prediction system. Mon. Wea. Rev.,123, 2791–2801.

  • Lin, Y. L., R. D. Farley, and H. D. Orville, 1983: Bulk parameterization of the snow field in a cloud model. J. Climate Appl. Meteor.,22, 1065–1092.

  • Lord, S. J., H. E. Willoughby, and J. M. Piotrowicz, 1984: Role of a parameterized ice-phase microphysics in an axisymmetric, nonhydrostatic tropical cyclone model. J. Atmos. Sci.,41, 2836–2848.

  • Malkus, J. S., and H. Riehl, 1960: On the dynamics and energy transformations in steady-state hurricanes. Tellus,12, 1–20.

  • Marks, F. D., Jr., 1985: Evolution and structure of precipitation in Hurricane Allen (1980). Mon. Wea. Rev.,113, 909–930.

  • ——, and R. A. Houze Jr., 1987: Inner core structure of Hurricane Alicia from airborne Doppler-radar observations. J. Atmos. Sci.,44, 1296–1317.

  • ——, ——, and J. F. Gamache, 1992: Dual-aircraft investigation of the inner core of the Hurricane Norbert. Part I: Kinematic structure. J. Atmos. Sci.,49, 919–942.

  • Mayfield, M., L. Avila, and E. N. Rappaport, 1994: Annual summaries: Atlantic hurricane season of 1992. Mon. Wea. Rev.,122, 517–538.

  • Molinari, J., and M. Dudeck, 1992: Parameterization of convective precipitation in mesoscale numerical models: A critical review. Mon. Wea. Rev.,120, 326–344.

  • ——, and D. Vollaro, 1995: External influences on hurricane intensity. Part II: Vertical structure and response of the hurricane vortex. J. Atmos. Sci.,52, 3593–3606.

  • NOAA, 1992: Storm Data. Department of Commerse Rep. 34 (8). [Available from National Climate Data Center, 37 Battery Park Ave., Asheville, NC 28801-2733.].

  • Ooyama, K., 1969: Numerical simulation of the life-cycle of tropical cyclones. J. Atmos. Sci.,26, 3–40.

  • ——, 1982: Conceptual evolution of the theory and modeling of the tropical cyclone. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan,60, 369–380.

  • Parrish, J. R., R. W. Burpee, F. D. Marks Jr., and R. Grebe, 1982: Rainfall patterns observed by digitized radar during landfall of Hurricane Frederic (1979). Mon. Wea. Rev.,110, 1933–1944.

  • Perkey, D. J., and W. Kreitzberg, 1976: A time-dependent lateral boundary scheme for limited area primitive equation models. Mon. Wea. Rev.,104, 744–755.

  • Powell, M. D., and S. H. Houston, 1996: Hurricane Andrew’s landfall in Florida. Part II: surface wind fields and potential real-time application. Wea. Forecasting,11, 329–349.

  • Rappaport, E. N., 1994: Hurricane Andrew. Weather,49, 51–61.

  • Rosenthal, S. L., 1978: Numerical simulation of tropical cyclone development with latent heat release by resolvable scales. I: Model description and preliminary results. J. Atmos. Sci.,35, 258–271.

  • Ross, R. J., and Y. Kurihara, 1995: A numerical study on influences of Hurricane Gloria (1985) on the environment. Mon. Wea. Rev.,123, 332–346.

  • Rotunno, R., and K. A. Emanuel, 1987: An air-sea interaction theory for tropical cyclones. Part II: Evolutionary study using a non-hydrostatic axisymmetric numerical model. J. Atmos. Sci.,44, 542–561.

  • Roux, F., and N. Viltard, 1995: Structure and evolution of Hurricane Claudettte on 7 September 1991 from airborne Doppler radar observation. Part I: Kinematics. Mon. Wea. Rev.,123, 2611–2639.

  • Shapiro, L. J., and H. E. Willoughby, 1982: The response of the balanced hurricanes to local sources of heat and momentum. J. Atmos. Sci.,39, 378–394.

  • Simpson, R. H., 1974: The hurricane disaster-potential scale. Weatherwise,27, 169.

  • Smith, P. L., 1984: Equivalent radar reflectivity factors for snow and ice particles. J. Climate Appl. Meteor.,23, 1258–1260.

  • Smolarkiewicz, P., and G. A. Grell, 1992: A class of monotone interpolation schemes. J. Comput. Phys.,101, 431–440.

  • Sunqvist, H., 1970: Numerical simulation of the development of tropical cyclones with ten-level model. Part I. Tellus,22, 359–390.

  • Tao, W.-K., and J. Simpson, 1993: The Goddard cumulus ensemble model. Part I: Model description. Terr. Atmos. Oceanic Sci.,4, 35–72.

  • Tripoli, G. J., 1992: An explicit three-dimensional nonhydrostatic numerical simulation of a tropical cyclone. Meteor. Atmos. Phys.,49, 229–254.

  • Tuleya, R. E., M. A. Bender, and Y. Kurihara, 1984: A simulation study of the landfall of tropical cyclones using a movable nested-mesh model. Mon. Wea. Rev.,112, 124–136.

  • Wakimoto, R. M., and P. G. Black, 1994: Damage survey of Hurricane Andrew and its relationship to the eyewall. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.,75, 189–200.

  • Willoughby, H. E., 1979: Forced secondary circulations in hurricanes. J. Geophys. Res.,84, 3173–3183.

  • ——, 1990: Temporal changes of the primary circulation in tropical cyclones. J. Atmos. Sci.,47, 242–264.

  • ——, and P. G. Black, 1996: Hurricane Andrew in Florida: Dynamics of a disaster. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.,77, 543–549.

  • ——, J. A. Clos, and M. G. Shoreibah, 1982: Concentric eyewalls, secondary wind maxima, and the evolution of the hurricane vortex. J. Atmos. Sci.,39, 395–411.

  • ——, H. L. Jin, S. J. Lord, and J. M. Piotrowicz, 1984a: Hurricane structure and evolution as simulated by an axisymmetric, nonhydrostatic numerical model. J. Atmos. Sci.,41, 1169–1186.

  • ——, F. D. Marks Jr., and R. J. Feinberg, 1984b: Stationary and moving convective bands in hurricanes. J. Atmos. Sci.,41, 3189–3211.

  • Yamasaki, M., 1977: A preliminary experiment of the tropical cyclone without parameterizing the effects of cumulus convection. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan,55, 11–30.

  • Zhang, D.-L., 1989: The effect of parameterized ice microphysics on the simulation of vortex circulation with a mesoscale hydrostatic model. Tellus,41A, 132–147.

  • ——, and R. A. Anthes, 1982: A high-resolution model of the planetary boundary layer—Sensitivity tests and comparisons with SESAME-79 data. J. Appl. Meteor.,21, 1594–1609.

  • ——, E.-Y. Hsie, and M. W. Moncrieff, 1988: A comparison of explicit and implicit predictions of convective and stratiform precipitating weather systems with a meso-β scale numerical model. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,114, 31–60.

All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 3678 2629 426
PDF Downloads 1018 226 8