Tropical Cyclone Forecasts Made with the FSU Global Spectral Model

C. E. Williford Department of Meteorology, The Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida

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R. J. Correa-Torres Department of Meteorology, The Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida

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T. N. Krishnamurti Department of Meteorology, The Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida

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Abstract

The Florida State University Global Spectral Model forecast skill is calculated for several tropical systems in the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean basins and is compared to operational forecast skill. The series of forecasts were initialized using global analyses and supplemental satellite data. Track forecast errors were calculated for the storm series for control runs, enhanced runs, and operational forecasts made for the same time periods. Cumulative results for all modeled 1995 hurricanes are summarized.

Corresponding author address: Mr. C. Eric Williford, Department of Meteorology—4520, The Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306-4520.

Abstract

The Florida State University Global Spectral Model forecast skill is calculated for several tropical systems in the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean basins and is compared to operational forecast skill. The series of forecasts were initialized using global analyses and supplemental satellite data. Track forecast errors were calculated for the storm series for control runs, enhanced runs, and operational forecasts made for the same time periods. Cumulative results for all modeled 1995 hurricanes are summarized.

Corresponding author address: Mr. C. Eric Williford, Department of Meteorology—4520, The Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306-4520.

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